Short AAPL $632 I got 'em

[iprph90]

Quote from bwolinsky:

It's a newbie mistake to expect that kind of multiple expansion, because by then current earnings will be 50% higher, and the forward PE currently at 10 at $630 means a multiple of 21 equates to 21*$63/share=$1,323.

I was using trailing p/e 18 and eps of $35.....if earnings comes in at ~$14 in q1 run-up to $735 would equate to trailing p/e 17....I stand corrected, but would still be tempted buying dotm price with another 100 pt move w/in 2-4 mo.

 

[cactiman]

Quote from Uncle_Ho:

Short at $632, a little over half of my cash on hand. Target $600-. Time frame 1-2 months.

Into the fray.

Your shorting it again?

Good luck. You're gonna need it.

 

[cactiman]

Quote from brokerboy:

what changed since the 1% move? i don't get it and that's not saying you can't get lucky and make money on it. its at a high and the market is bull. the spreads on $600 options are very rough. if you put the statement on the last trade up people won't think your a sim's trader.

Good question.
Nothing has changed. Except for it becoming even less likely AAPL will go back to 600.
Stubbornly repeating bets against a Trend can get very expensive.
I guess Uncle Ho has to learn the hard way...

 

[rockefehler]

According to me, AAPL will top around $800, so calls may be more interesting now.

 

[Riffraffpatrol]

Quote from Uncle_Ho:

Short at $632, a little over half of my cash on hand. Target $600-. Time frame 1-2 months.

Into the fray.

On what basis???

A hunch? Gut feeling?

There is no clear path of resistance...you are gambling with zero edge.

 

[short4bread]

Quote from Uncle_Ho:

Short at $632, a little over half of my cash on hand. Target $600-. Time frame 1-2 months.

Into the fray.

I'll take the other side of this trade!

 

[cactiman]

Quote from rockefehler:

According to me, AAPL will top around $800, so calls may be more interesting now.

That would be nice.
One of my Credit Spreads says it will make $660. Should I go higher? How did you come up with 800?

 

[atticus]

Quote from cactiman:

That would be nice.
One of my Credit Spreads says it will make $660. Should I go higher? How did you come up with 800?

One of your credit spreads can talk?

 

[cactiman]

Quote from atticus:

One of your credit spreads can talk?

Uhhhhhh........ weird typo.
Those must be the voices I hear in bed at night, while worrying about the Market.
:eek:

 

[brokerboy]

Quote from cactiman:

That would be nice.
One of my Credit Spreads says it will make $660. Should I go higher? How did you come up with 800?

i don't think its going to 800 but i don't know the future. i can't believe in 2 years this stock with be above 600. there is just no edge to short that's my opinion though. the value of the stock is insane at this level but if it was 900 i would not be shocked. the market moves to extremes that's the only thing i know.