Short 500 AAPL at $75

I have actually backtested trend following and buying dips into a strong trend in the stock market on baskets of stocks.. and there is only a tiny slight edge as opposed to buying stocks in a strong uptrend. The most important factor that influences stocks that i tested was the broader market.


--MIKE
 
Quote from andrasnm:

ideally you want to short a stock that is in a downtrend and moved up.
you might try to fade strength intraday but even that is very dangerous.
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I dont agree.. who says that its ideal? Can you quantify this.. or is it just something you read somewhere?

Actually, what i realized in my experience.. is that when u fade strength many times you get a much better entry and risk to reward than when u wait for a downtrend or for the stock to roll over.
 
Quote from dgabriel:

82? That seems like a lot of leeway. Your risk/reward is 7 to 10. Are you hedged with options?
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The trade is not hedged.. but i do have other equity longs that will hedge the short side exposure.
 
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

Let me see if I've got this straight. You're 46 years old and you go around calling people "farter" and yet somehow, I'm the one who needs to "get a life"? What kind of drug induced logic is that?

Denial is a great thing but it won't help you make money in the markets.
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Why do you search my past posts?
Why do I interest you so much?
What more would you like to know of me?
Why don't you use Google and get my REAL name? You would like that.

GET A LIFE LOSER
 
Quote from uninvited_guest:

Why do you search my past posts?
Why do I interest you so much?
What more would you like to know of me?
Why don't you use Google and get my REAL name? You would like that.

GET A LIFE LOSER
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#1) I was curious to see just how big a nutter you are. Turns out you're a real big nutter.

#2) I have always been interested into just what makes a blithering idiot tick.

#3) Which of your meds did you go off of without Dr. supervision?

You seem very angry, losses piling up?
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

why in the name of everything holy do people insist on shorting 52 week highs??


WTF?
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maybe we are almost there? apple is great but the stock has moved up rapidly. 80 could be an interesting target in the short term:

dec-13-2005-apple.jpg
 
can't help to post here. i second that shorting a multiweek high is rarely a pro trade. higher trading cost plus natural stock drift PLUS momentum of a strong trend is too much. shorting is a tough art. looking for bancruptcy or strong uptrends is not a pro-strategy IMHO.
 
Quote from man:

can't help to post here. i second that shorting a multiweek high is rarely a pro trade. higher trading cost plus natural stock drift PLUS momentum of a strong trend is too much. shorting is a tough art. looking for bancruptcy or strong uptrends is not a pro-strategy IMHO.
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Yea whatever... steven cohen from SAC was shorting the Pokemon stock (KDE) when it was like 200+ ... i guess he is not a pro trader in your book.

Read shwaggers stock market wizards book.


--MIKE
 
Trendfader,

you are doing the right thing and the more agressive posts you get that tell you you are an idiot to short a stock in an uptrend, the more you can be convinced that you are doing the right thing.

Its not about hitting the exact top. It is about shorting a stock where the sentiment hits extreme settings and you can be sure that a correction will come below your entry price now, no matter if it begins here or at 80 dollar. AAPL is a nice short for the next 2 years.

Good trade !
 
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