Shoot the Bull - Currencies

Quote from usdBull:

Here's another loonie one to noodle on. I apologize for the size but it dates all the way back to 1974. Remember what was going on in 1974. I think inflation may have been a tad high.

Now here we are 32 years later and we have hit the 78% make or break reversal area. Are the inflation gods sending us a message? Is inflation bad for commodities?
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Maybe this is a top.

By and good luck
 

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[18:49 GMT August 24] USD/CAD opened in NY at 1.1093/96 after trading a range of
1.1076-1.1133. The USD/CAD found an early bid, bolstered by the technical view
from some analysts that the low of 1.1050 traded yesterday was now a base for
USD/CAD. USD/CAD edged higher, bolstered to highs of 1.1120/25 after the USD
rebounded sharply despite the decline in durable goods and new home sales.
However, as with other dollar bloc currencies, cross sales tempered CAD weakness
with CAD/JPY finding bids on dips to 104.50 and EUR/CAD fell from 1.4250 to
1.4170. This helped CAD rebound with USD/CAD dropping back to 1.1100 into the NY
afternoon.
Good offers remain at 1.1130/35, a break of which targets gains to 1.1170/75
with buyers on dips to 1.1170/75 and 1.1050. Gold and base metals prices were
lower but this was offset by more M&A with Rite Aid paying US$3.4 bln for the US
stores of Quebec"s Jean Coutu group. Further support for CAD came from the
performance of the Amex oil index which, after a volatile session, ended firmer
on the day. No Canadian data for Friday with the focus on Fed"s Bernanke.
 
[18:21 GMT August 24] The AUD/USD opened in NY at 0.7641/43 with price action
caught in a very tight range of 0.7620-45. US data was worse than expected for
both durable goods and new home sales which fell 2.4% and 4.3% respectively.
But, EUR/USD was unable to rise above 1.2850, triggering a wave of USD buying
into the London close. AUD/USD, which also met with consistent selling around
0.7645 despite the weak US numbers, pulled back to 0.7620 but held up in the
face of the EUR/USD losses with EUR/AUD buying, a bounce in AUD/NZD off 1.1950
and AUD/JPY buying underpinning the AUD. AUD ends near 0.7623/25.
Some negatives emerged for the AUD including a firm tone in the USD index which
appears poised to break higher. Gold was easier on the day as was the LMEX
index, while the Baltic Dry Index has been trending lower after reaching record
highs this month. Of note has been the sharp drop in copper which bodes poorly
for AUD with the decline in house building needs for copper wiring and plumbing
seen weighing on the commodity and likely to pressure the AUD. AUD support is at
0.7600 and lower at 0.7550/60 with large stops tipped under this level.
 
Here's the scrunched up view so you can see where the studies originate. My first target is down around 6200. Depends on how long the commodities decline. Year or two maybe.
 

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Might start buying copper at $2.00 or so. Whenever it gets to the green line.

Not sure what this chart is saying?? Must be saying we are going to find a substitute to compete with copper. Verizon running lots of fiber to homes. Oh yeah, not to any new homes with electrical wire since housing bubble has bursted. What will it be? Probably a fortune in the answer.

---bulll
 

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Hope everyone had a good week. I made some marginal progress on my long term dollar bull trades, but there is a lot of wood left to chop on the way up/down yet.


AUDUSD - Entered short on July 30, 2006

Short @ .7666
Current .7562

Up 104 points

USDCAD - Entered long on Aug 9, 2006

Long @ 1.1199
Current 1.1095

Down 104 points


USDCHF - Entered long on July 30, 2006

Long @1.2320
Current 1.2394

Up 74 points

USDJPY - Entered long on July 30, 2006

Long @ 114.59
Current 117.30

Up 271 points

Currently up 345 points total. I plan to add to these depending on timing and ,of course, if the USDBULL does bust out of its cage.

Good trading everyone,

--bull
 
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