Sharing+Discuss Option Trades/Strategies

Quote from Putz Master:

<<< Its your opinion that this thread should be about sharing and discussing trades, despite the fact you have posted a couple of trades which may or may not be real most of your posts are not trade specific. My opinion is that I choose to post about your inconsistencies, wrong information and poor track record. There are plenty of boards I don’t post on should you desire to post there. >>>


xflat,2186, if you continue to disrupt the board with the same endless rants about trades from 2007, they will continue to be sent to the new moderator for review. There are plenty of actual trades posted here for you to discuss.
You obviously had a really bad year in 2007, and are clearly upset about that year.
We get that by now.
Duh!
It was a difficult year for most investors.
But dwelling on the past will NOT make you any richer. It will only make you more angry and upset, as you continue to obsess over it.


<<< Its your opinion that this thread should be about sharing and discussing trades... My opinion is that I choose to post about your inconsistencies, wrong information and poor track record. Here on this board I will post as I see fit so long as I am in compliance with the TOS. >>>

I'm more interested in the moderators opinion.
He has begun to receive examples of your off topic board disrupting posts, and recent pledge to continue to do so.

It clearly upsets you that I and others are willing to share and discuss our current trades and strategies, while you continue to dwell on and rant on endlessly about your really bad year in 2007.
We had a market correction of more than 50%. Some sectors dropped a lot more than 50%.
Most investors lost money, as few anticipated that large a correction. I lost money too.
But you will never replace that money by dwelling on your past mistakes. It's time to put them behind you and start fresh.

If you would like to share and discuss some new stocks for a potential investment, that's what this thread is for.
However, if you are intent on continuing to disrupt the board, with the same endless angry off topic rants, as your new threat below states,.... that's what the moderator is for.

" Its your opinion that this thread should be about sharing and discussing trades... My opinion is that I choose to post about your inconsistencies, wrong information and poor track record. Here on this board I will post as I see fit so long as I am in compliance with the TOS."
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Why do you assume I had a bad year in 2007? Can you show even a shred of proof to support that other than your misguided opinion? If you like I can provide links to many of your trades for those years you keep harping about showing your substantial losses. Simply put unless you can show some actual proof that you know how I fared in those years then you’re nothing more than what you’ve always been, a liar.

I understand you’re angry and upset that your track record was not able to be removed from the internet, that’s unfortunate for you. If it makes you feel better to post over and over and over that you feel I am angry or upset then feel free to continue to post that and stew about it. For the record I am neither angry nor upset nor did I have a bad year in any of those years you mention.

While we’re clearing the air, and since you started the off topic discussion with the post above. I am not upset in the least bit about you posting your trades so long as you follow the TOS. You have my permission to continue to post your trades and myself and others will comment as we see fit so long as we’re not in violation of the TOS. I think I’ll google cache this thread so we can refer to it.

Have a great day!
 
<<< Why do you assume I had a bad year in 2007? Can you show even a shred of proof to support that other than your misguided opinion? Simply put unless you can show some actual proof that you know how I fared in those years then you’re nothing more than what you’ve always been, a liar.
If it makes you feel better to post over and over and over that you feel I am angry or upset then feel free to continue to post that and stew about it. For the record I am neither angry nor upset nor did I have a bad year in any of those years you mention. >>>

Got it. Thanks for clarifying.
You are neither angry nor upset, and you had a good year in 2007.
And as you state, there's "not even a shred of actual proof" to show otherwise.
FYI, yahoo doesn't actually shred your posts when you request "proof" of them be deleted.

However, xflat2186 is correct. There is no longer even one single post , (or "actual proof" as xflat2186 refers to it),... here at ET or anyplace else on yahoo, of any of his previously shared trades.
Contrast that with the multiple hundreds of posts openly and honestly shared by me in "real time",..... here and on yahoo.

Unlike xflat2186, I had some losses during our recent 50% market correction.
But at least xflat2186 is not angry, upset, defensive, or overly obsessed over that market period.


<<< While we’re clearing the air,... I am not upset in the least bit about you posting your trades... You have my permission to continue to post your trades and myself and others will comment as we see fit so long as we’re not in violation of the TOS. >>>

That's why I post them. They are here for all to observe, monitor, discuss and comment on.
Thank you for giving permission for me to continue sharing and discussing them.
Again, we're glad to see you are "not upset in the least bit", about others sharing and discussing option trades, on a thread titled Share and discuss option trades/strategies.
:)

Putz Master
 
My order for the BMY spread trade I discussed yesterday, finally got filled today.

I initiated a putz spread on $17.5/$16 BMY for Sept.
Credit of $0.34
Used 30 contracts.

R/R ratio 3.5:1
Probability I will NOT lose money on trade...... 77 - 78%

As I previously discussed, I like having the more stable credit stability, of the more narrow strike gaps.
Given the smaller otm safety cushion of this trade vs many of my others, that lower delta credit stability is important to me.
I like the company, but this industry has the potential to be volatile.
I initiated this trade, to replace my $17.5/$15 BMY spread I anticipate expiring this month.

Putz Master
 
Quote from Putz Master:

My order for the BMY spread trade I discussed yesterday, finally got filled today.

I initiated a putz spread on $17.5/$16 BMY for Sept.
Credit of $0.34
Used 30 contracts.

R/R ratio 3.5:1
Probability I will NOT lose money on trade...... 77 - 78%

As I previously discussed, I like having the more stable credit stability, of the more narrow strike gaps.
Given the smaller otm safety cushion of this trade vs many of my others, that lower delta credit stability is important to me.
I like the company, but this industry has the potential to be volatile.
I initiated this trade, to replace my $17.5/$15 BMY spread I anticipate expiring this month.

Putz Master
More...

Sep vols are at 33%. The R/R implies binary-odds of (100/3.5) = 28; (28/100) - 1 = 72% PoP, excluding sigma. A glance a expiration probability [solved from an implied vol figure of 33%] results in a 69% prob of a B/E result at Sep expiration. Both numbers are reasonably complimentary, so I ask, how did you arrive at 77%?
 
Quote from atticus:

Sep vols are at 33%. The R/R implies binary-odds of (100/3.5) = 28; (28/100) - 1 = 72% PoP. A glance a expiration probability [solved from an implied vol figure of 33%] results in a 69% prob of a B/E result at Sep expiration. Both numbers are reasonably complimentary, so I ask, how did you arrive at 77%?
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I used a current price of $19.20 and $17.16 as my upper bound price.
http://www.optionistics.com/f/probability_calculator
 
Quote from atticus:

You are using vols 500bps under atm vol for Sep. Plus, your STIR is too high at 4%. The forward price on BMY increases with the interest rate, which reduces the down & out probability. That app defaults at 4%.
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I agree the 4% STIR they are using is high.
My guess is they are using a longer or shorter HV in their calculations than you. That may pick up or miss some earlier price spike in April.
I think they may also be using some approximations for other variables. They may also be using yesterdays closing price.


However, whatever calculation is derived at, it will change daily.
Thus the reason it's merely an approximation "tool" to use.
Tech analysis and support levels are also merely tools.
Investing is about evaluating the blend of them all.
They are all fluctuating approximations.
I plan to continue using this site, simply for reasons of consistancy,... unless you have an improved link I can review.
Going out. Read you later. Thanks for the feed back.
BTW, what is 500bps?
 
Quote from Putz Master:

I agree the 4% STIR they are using is high.
My guess is they are using a longer or shorter HV in their calculations than you. That may pick up or miss some earlier price spike in April.
I think they may also be using some approximations for other variables. They may also be using yesterdays closing price.


However, whatever calculation is derived at, it will change daily.
Thus the reason it's merely an approximation "tool" to use.
Tech analysis and support levels are also merely tools.
Investing is about evaluating the blend of them all.
They are all fluctuating approximations.
I plan to continue using this site, simply for reasons of consistancy,... unless you have an improved link I can review.
Going out. Read you later. Thanks for the feed back.
More...

HV has no impact on the rate used in the model. I'll state it again; as you increase the STIR you decrease the touch and expiration probability of down and out strikes. It skews the probability to the upside, erroneously-so. You need to use a "consensus" STIR. 3M LIBOR is currently .64%, not anything approaching 4%, which is the rate-used in your model.

Your inputs are not robust, therefore the output probability is garbage.
 
Quote from atticus:

HV has no impact on the rate used in the model. I'll state it again; as you increase the STIR you decrease the touch and expiration probability of down and out strikes.

Your inputs are not robust, therefore the output probability is garbage.
More...


What is 500bps?
Is there another sight you can link me to for an improved probability calculator?
I can't download programs, as I use a webtv.

Gotta go. Read you later
 
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