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J

JRMaynard

I have been on a quest to further my knowledge of the markets and add strategies to my trading plan and have been attending different vendor promotions, I had some decent luck early on, but it has proven to be quite a waste of time lately. The last one was a shadowtraders.com webinar Monday night. The first thing that I noticed is that to get into the webinar a name, address, phone, and email is REQUIRED to get in, now that sort of brought up a little question as I get enough junk mail, email and phone calls as it is. So, I faked it all, used the name Bob Jones from AZ.

Anyway, here is the review of the webinar, and hopefully at least one person will read this and not waste their time like I have done.

Barbara Cohen, the lead trader and presenter started with a very basic overview of the futures markets stating that it was the only “profitable” market left(which is interesting in itself). She then stated that she mainly trades the S&P Emini. After the basic stuff was done, she went on to show some trades. She had several profitable trades from the previous Friday, and the profits were usually around 1-2 ticks using 50 contracts. But, there was one trade that I saw that occurred that took 3.25 points of heat and then turned back and she got her 2 tick target out of it. I made a statement that it looked like she took some heat on that trade. Her response was that she took about 3 ticks of heat. I then stated that I have my charts up and the low for that period(between entry and exit) was 3.25 points away. She then stated that it really didn’t matter what kind of heat she took, it was a winner. Asking her again, she said that was impossible that she took that kind of heat and my charts were wrong and there was no way I could see the fundamental information they can see and trade on my charts. I asked her to show the price scale(the price scale was not in the viewable window) and prove that she took 3 ticks and not 3 points of heat. She got a little irritated and said “We are moving on!, I don’t know what you are talking about!” I kept asking and she stated that she would entertain any emails that I sent. So, I will post these emails:

1. Me to Barbara Cohen.

fromJR Maynard <yeti6296273@gmail.com>
tobcohen@shadowtraders.com,

dateMon, Mar 17, 2008 at 9:11 PM
subjectJust a question
mailed-bygmail.com

hide details 9:11 PM (21 hours ago) Reply


Hi,

Thank you for your time today in the presentation. I was just wondering about the 9:43 trade. On my tick chart it looks like you took 3.25 pts of heat for the two tick gain, it is just a little different than what I am used to. At what point would you say that you were wrong and take the loss. If that trade had been a loss, it would have wiped out todays profits. I know that I don't understand what you all do, just trying to understand. I think it is great you all have 85% winners, but if you take a 3 point stop on one of those it certainly could be very detrimental at the leverage you speak of. Thanks again for your time today, and in reading this email.

Bob
 
2. Barbara’s response to me.

fromBarbara Cohen <bcohen@shadowtraders.com>
toJR Maynard <yeti6296273@gmail.com>,

dateTue, Mar 18, 2008 at 8:25 AM
subjectRe: Just a question

hide details 8:25 AM (10 hours ago) Reply


It appears you are a technical analyst. As I said, we are not technical
analysts, we are fundamental analysts who daytrade.
When you asked about stoploss, you were telling me that you do not
understand how the market works.
At the moment of that trade, the market was doing something very
particular, which is one of our fundamental trades.
You will go and look at your tick chart and not see what we saw. And it
bothers you that we could take a losing trade and make it positive.

Markets are manipulated. They are designed to take out technical
analysts such as yourself. You would have taken the loss based on some
pre-determined stoploss. We turned a losing trade into a winner because
we saw what the market was doing.
In fact we did 3 trades back to back and walked away with 9 ticks.
because we knew what the market was doing.
When you go back and look at your chart, you will not see what we saw
because your chart does not reveal the fundamental actiions that were
going on at that time.

we are not going to tell you what the market was doing just then. that
is part of our proprietary trading solutions that our
clients learn. that knowledge sets us apart from technical traders.
technical trading is at best 50% of the game. unless you know
all of the game, you are limited in how you can trade. as we said in
the webinar, stoploss is all about time of day, not some fixed idea.
the fact that you spent the entire webinar worrying about 1 trade is
evident that you are a technical analyst without knowledge of
institutional market actions.

you'll need to expand your horizons to trade like an institution and not
just react to what the market gives you.
barbara
 
3. My 2nd email to Barbara (which remains unanswered and probably never will be)

fromJR Maynard <yeti6296273@gmail.com>
toBarbara Cohen <bcohen@shadowtraders.com>,

dateTue, Mar 18, 2008 at 11:25 AM
subjectRe: Just a question
mailed-bygmail.com

hide details 11:25 AM (7 hours ago) Reply


Barbara,

I appreciate the response. Yes, you could certainly call me a technical analysis, and I will readily admit that I have much to learn about the markets. In fact, that is the reason that I attended your webinar, just trying learn more about the markets and see if you were a person that could do that. I am not bothered one bit that you took a trade that took some heat and turned it into a winner, in fact, I applaud you.

You said I would have taken the loss on some sort of predetermined stoploss.
Actually I don't have a predetermined stop loss either. I place the stop in an area that when it is hit, I know that I am wrong, and I am out. So my stop varies. Now, I am certain it is not as complicated as what you do. And, again this is why I was in your webinar. And there Is no way that I would have taken your trade anyway, as you stated, I have no clue about what you do.

I understand you have some proprietary information that you are protecting. I completely understand that, and absolutely do not expect something for nothing. I have no intention to weasel some sort of information out of you about some sort of specific trade setups.

My question really is more about money management. You stated in the webinar that you shoot for 2 ticks and you have 85%-90% win ratio, which is excellent, and I congratulate you. In the webinar I asked the question about the trade you took at 9:43 on Friday. You had a two tick target. The market moved against you 3.25 points, and I don't see how my tick charts would differ in showing me what the market did (as far as the high and low that traded) between two periods. Your first answer in the webinar was that you took 3 ticks of heat, not 3 points. Your second answer in the webinar was that it didn't really matter what sort of heat that you took. Your third answer(by email) is that I don't understand what you do, which I readily admit, and have no wish to figure out your secrets without paying for a course. I am only asking at what point on that particular trade, when would you have decided that you were wrong? Now, surely you have some sort of idea of this, as you stated some (roughy 10%) of your fundamental trades are losers. That is all I am asking, and by telling me at what point you would've excited in no way gives me any kind of tradable information. I certainly would not be able to go out and duplicate anything that you have done.

The reason that I ask this is if you have a typical 1-2 tick target and are willing to take at least 3.25 points (13 ticks) of heat with a 90% win ratio. Assuming a 2 tick target and 13 tick stop and a 90% average, in ten trades you would yield 9 winners at 2 ticks for 18 ticks profit and 1 loser with 13 tick loss, producing 5 ticks. Now, assuming a $3.00 RT (which I think is reasonable) commission over ten trades would yield an expense of about $30. So, in my calculations you have (5*$12.50=$62.50 for your gains and subtracting $30 for commissions = $32.50 on a per contract basis). I understand that not every trade is going to be the same but it seems that your profit target seems to be fairly consistent. Certainly you have some sort of historical reference to what your averages are as you can state your winning %'s off the top of your head, just wondering what the average loser is. Is there anything wrong with any of my assumptions? Or for that matter, asking this question? So again, to repeat what I have asked, what was your stop for the 9:43 trade? OR, What is your average stop(or range for that matter) of your fundamental trades. I believe that it is reasonable to ask.



Thanks again for your time, and I hope you have a good Fed trading day.


Best,

Bob


In her webinar she also recommends that to trade 15 contracts in the ES one should have a $10,000 account….thats right 10k. Well, doing some risk analysis here we come up with something I find pretty interesting. If one were in Barbara’s chat room on Friday March 14 and took the 9:43 trade on 15 contracts with a 10k account, they would of experienced 3.25 points of heat. $50/point * 3.25 points * 15 contracts = $2,437.50
$2,437.50/$10,000 account = 24.375% risk on a single trade….that is at a minimum….she wasn’t stopped out. I have no clue what kind of threshold of pain they do take before they give in, but in the end they profited 2 ticks or $375 on the trade. $2,437.50 risk (at a minimum) for $375. In the above email I did a calculation of what one could expect, based on what I saw and what she said. As you can see, at the optimum calculations the method is barely profitable.

Subsequently I spoke to a friend that apparently knows a few people that have taken the course. Apparently one can be profitable for some time, but ALL of them have blown out their accounts over time. Certainly fits the above calculations.

Barbara, why don’t you come on here and explain to us exactly how this works? I realize that I am an idiot that doesn’t know how the market works or how an institution trades, so why don’t you enlighten me? Why don’t you answer the question at hand?

I hope that this has provided at least one person with some insight into this vendor.

Best,

JR
 
I apologize for any confusion, I am speaking of ShadowTraders.com. Please do not associate anything about what was said with anyone else that may have a similar name, I don't have any experience with shadowtrader.net but I am sure they are a reputable organization.

JR
 
I agree with your assessment. I sat in a month ago as I was calculating some trading stats. She didn't even know that the tick value of the Bond market was changing!:eek: Then she recovered and attempted to get mystique say that she was going to teach Chaos Theory. :p Ninja Trader should do some vetting before promoting ppl. They have had some real cheese balls in their sponsored webinars recently.
 
Typical "guru" response. When the trade goes gainst their rules, they come up with some cockamame esoteric reason why you don't understand their method.

Not unlike a guy (or girl) who comes home early and finds their signicant other in bed with someone else and say "what are you talking about, there is no one here with me."

THIS TYPE OF SCALPING IS A QUICK ROAD TO RUIN.

And besides, this woman was not trading with a real, cash account during her demonstration.
 
thanks for the thread. excellent exchange..
trading 15 ES contracts with a 10K account is financial suicide. no wonder their past clients blew up. interesting to see how these seminar trading systems "work" and in their response to this. wow!
 
LOL, I think you guys are being waaaay too harsh!

There are worse things than not knowing that the tick size of the 30 yr bond was changing ... and so long as traders are sitting in on her room and learning something (as well as making mulla) , it might be worth their time! - oh wait, she's trading on SIM too? :confused:

Hey, where do I sign up (LOL, Reaver's gonna kill me when he sees this post).

Da-yum, well, thanks for a few minutes of entertainment! :p
 
Quote from brocklanders:

thanks for the thread. excellent exchange..
trading 15 ES contracts with a 10K account is financial suicide. no wonder their past clients blew up. interesting to see how these seminar trading systems "work" and in their response to this. wow!
More...
But you gotta wonder ... where the hell do these people find their students? :confused:
 
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