ShadowTrader Focus Report_2008

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 11, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. The scenario we outlined yesterday in the ShadowTraderPro Focus Report is playing out in our favor. We initiated a ShadowTraderPro Advisory to short 250 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 Index (SPY) at 83.03 The entry price was triggered and the trade is now an active position in the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. We did mention in the Advisory that we might add to the position, so be alert for a possible follow up Advisory to short more shares around 82.30. This possibility is still being analyzed by the in house stock geeks, so as it stands now, an addition to the position is only a possibility. One of our trading principles is to always be aware of our positions or trades we are considering in relation to how it fits into the bigger picture. By adding this perspective to our daily "check up" years ago, our trading success improved dramatically. We have honed in on the daily and weekly charts in a number of recent Focus Reports, so now is an excellent time to check our bearings on the long term SPY and the PowerShares NASDAQ (QQQQ) charts below. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090212Dan.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> Above is a chart of SPY from 1994 to present. We are on the cusp (once again) of breaking the support level that formed between 2001 and 2003 (gray oval). If it happens that February's price bar closes below this level there is a high probablility SPY will move down to the next level of support that formed between 1995 and 1997 (white box). If SPY holds it's current level and we use history as our guide, it could take 3-6 more months of trading in a sideways range before the market would begin a serious move higher. Both of the previous consolidation points highlighted had an average duration of 8 months before SPY subsequently began it's move higher.

<img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090212Dan2.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> Now please observe the monthly chart of QQQQ. It seems to have more support at current levels than SPY. But if February's bar closes below December's low, there could be a large percentage decline on the horizon. QQQQ has formed a bearish pennant (gray oval) albeit a small one so far. This month's price bar will undoubtedly either add to the formation's structure or decide it's result. The pennant has a higher probability of harboring a breakout to the downside because the trend coming into the pattern was bearish. We are reiterating the straightforward guidance we provided in yesterday's Focus Report. If you are short, stay short.

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 12, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. This morning's Focus Report is completely different from what was being planned before 3:07 pm yesterday. Had it not been for the news regarding the latest government plan to subsidies delinquent mortgages, the SPDR S&P 500 Index (SPY) was well on its way down to our target of 80.00. Let's review the day with the chart of SPY and NYSE Breadth below. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090213Dan.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> SPY opened with a gap lower (gray oval) and then worked its way higher until 12:30 pm (yellow circle) in a failed attempt to fill the opening gap. Market breadth was simultaneously diverging in a steady decline. By 3:00 pm (white circle), the bears were solidly in control and from a technical perspective things were unfolding just as we thought they would. Then just as we started to feel really good about our success, we were reminded again that the market is master and a very stern one at that. It does what it wants, when it wants. It has no feeling in its demolition of traders no matter their experience level. The only thing standing between your trading account and its complete annihilation by the market is your discipline and willingness to honor stops and cut losses. 
 When news of the latest government plan was released and the market began its dramatic reversal at 3:07 pm, every trader who was holding a short position was put to the test, including us. From being up 2.4% or $500 on our SPY position just 15 minutes earlier, we now had to make the tough decision to exit a position that had been a successful trade moments ago for a loss of $30. We did it without hesitation. Instead of violating our number one rule of preserving capital, the worst that happened to us, outside of the $30 loss, was that we still had all of our capital to put to work on the many trades to come in the future. Like every trade, we will review this one from beginning to end to determine if there was anything we could learn to improve our trading in the future, but we don't allow ourselves a minute to focus on what could have or should have been. And you can bet that reviewing a trade that lost $30 is much easier than reviewing a trade that lost $500 or $1,000. Controlling the loss also gives us a much better mental state moving forward which in turn raises the likelihood of being successful in the next trade.

<img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090213Dan2.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> With the stimulus plan scheduled to be voted on by the senate today and bullish sentiment left over from late yesterday's rally, we may see some follow through to the upside today. The result of all this wild action is that the price (green oval in SPY chart above) is back inside of the sideways trend. We will work hard this weekend to reframe our thesis to capitalize on whichever direction the market moves next.

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 16, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. While U.S. markets took a break for President's Day yesterday, world markets traded lower on more economic news. S&P 500 Futures (/ES) did trade yesterday closing below the ascending channel that we have been highlighting for the past three weeks in the ShadowTraderPro Focus Report (see chart below). <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090217Dan.GIF"> This morning will be very interesting as /ES closed yesterday 18.09 points below where the S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed on Friday. As we witnessed last Thursday, the only thing that has saved the markets from testing November lows has been news. There is more news to come this week, so if you are planning to be involved on either side of the trade, you must be on your toes and honor your stops. Sudden news driven reversals are still very much in play and seem to come "in the nick of time", saving the market from further declines. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090217Dan2.GIF"> As we discussed in this weeks ShadowTrader Video Weekly, we think we are at another buy point for gold. Please observe the weekly chart of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) above. Last week's price bar closed above two key points (blue circle). First, it knocked out the most recent lower-high (red circle) which "officially ends the bearish swing pattern that had been intact since the week of March 17, 2008. Second, the end of the trend is also indicated by a close above the orange descending trend from the March 17 high. We are buyers on any pull back into the light blue shaded area as GLD can afford a retracement into this area while maintaining the current bullish swing pattern. Depending on where we are able to buy into GLD, we will set our stop to match our risk rules. Ideally the stop would be under the 87.10 line or even the blue dotted line. Our targets for the trade are marked by the green dotted lines. Depending on how GLD behaves, we will have a choice to exit a portion of our position in the 97.50 area and then the remaining near 100.00. Finally, we wanted to start this week off by illustrating a trading plan for one of the stocks listed in today's Bulls and Bears section. Below is a daily chart Stanley Works (SWK). <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090217Dan3.GIF"> Our entry, stop and target prices are all plotted on the graph above. We chose to illustrate this short trade because it is a spectacular illustration of the "Larry Williams play" that we have mentioned occasionally on ShadowTraderPro Squawk Box. A large red bodied candle has completely violated and closed beneath a large bottoming tail. This is a major threat to the many longs that bought the stock in the green shaded area and were encouraged to stay in their positions by last Thursday's bottoming tail. They were hoping that the stock would trade higher so they could get their money back. Now as the price breaks beneath the prior bottoming tail, they will be even more motivated by their pain and fear to exit their positions which will cause the selling to feed upon itself driving the price lower. It is also note worthy that volume over the two previous trading days has been above average and the on-balance volume has continued to erode. We like this trade very much.

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 17, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. Yesterday was very interesting on many levels. It now appears that we have started the descent to test prior lows. Whether a test will be enough to satisfy blood thirsty bears remains to be seen, however for the purpose of our trading plans, that is as far as we can see right now. Of course we also remain on guard for sudden reversals as "breaking news" that our trusted politicians are adding to their efforts of bolstering the economy looms. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090218Dan.GIF"> Above is a chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPY). Clearly, there is wide open space to the downside. Yesterday's price bar is strongly bearish and underpinned by solid volume. We would not be at all surprised to see another gap down at the open with a very quick fill of that gap. In the event the market does gap down we would advise ShadowTraders who are short to cover their positions at the open. We may indeed go lower to test the low of 74.34, but we won't make it all the way down there today. We think it is a better idea to cover your short for a good profit, let President Obama speak later in the day (regarding his foreclosure subsidy plan) and then evaluate your next move based on market reaction. Yesterday, some traders may have been wondering why market internals were completely bearish, yet the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (/ES) moved in a very choppy range all day. We want to address this phenomenon below. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090218Dan2.GIF"> Above is yesterday's 15 minute chart of the /ES with NYSE Breadth below it. If you asked 100 ShadowTraders to look at just the NYSE Breadth and describe what they thought /ES price action was during the exact same time period, all 100 probably would have told you that the /ES should have gone down at least 30 points. The fact is however, from yesterday's 9:30am opening price of 796.75 to the closing price at 4:15pm of 785.75, the /ES was only down 11.00 points. With breadth that looks like that, how could it be? Please observe the chart below. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090218Dan3.GIF"> This chart compares trading of the /ES to the SPX from Friday 2/13/09 until the close on 2/17/09. On the /ES chart we have noted three separate large price moves lower. All of these took place during after hours, pre market or holiday (Monday) trading. The answer to the question above is that the /ES had already made it's big move before yesterday's open. By the open, its move was essentially done. Conversely, the SPX is based on the cash market. It was closed during the time periods that the /ES was hitting new lows, so yesterday it had a lot of "catching up" to do and promptly traded down approximately 36 points within the first hour (large blue oval). NYSE Breadth was so terribly bearish yesterday because it is based on the stocks that trade in the cash market. All of the stocks were lagging what the /ES had already done over the past 60 hours and so their decline yesterday to "catch up" to the /ES was represented in the NYSE Breadth. The market schools us every day. Yesterday it reminded us once again that we must always be aware of our positions in relation to the big picture (including after hours). Knowing that the /ES had already made its big move lower; one might have reallocated resources into a stock or ETF that might have provided a larger gains on the day.

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 18, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. We leave commentary on the world economy and its impact on the quality of life for others to debate. Our mission at ShadowTraderPro is to provide daily information that you can use to extract money from the markets. So let's get right to the charts below. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090219Dan.GIF"> Above is a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ($DJX). Yesterday (blue oval) it tested the low of November 21, 2008. Now let's compare this price action to that of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) below. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090219Dan2.GIF"> Like the Russell 2000, and the NASDAQ 100, the $SPX has a ways to go before it comes within range of testing the prior low made on November 21, 2008. The real question is what kind of an effect will yesterday's $DJX price action have on the other indexes going forward? Today we may see stocks rise if the $DJX decides to bounce off yesterday's "test" level causing the other indexes to rise in sympathy. But looking forward to the next several trading days the $SPX will be much more apt to move down and test its own prior lows if the $DJX surpasses and closes below the low of November 21, 2008. If this were to occur, we believe the $SPX would be set up for a playable bounce off the prior lows. We are not saying that this will be THE bottom, but it should spark a rally that can be bought. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090219Dan3.GIF"> As oil was being pounded again yesterday, the oil service sector showed strength closing near the daily high. Above is the chart of PHLX Oil Service Sector Index ($OSX). The blue trend line has been touched three separate times (orange circles) including yesterday when price formed a reversal bar. We think the sector will move higher from here. We have included the ETF for the sector, Oil Service Holders T (OIH), and a component stock of the $OSX, Baker Hughes, Inc (BHI) as long plays in today's Bulls and Bears Section.

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 19, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. The writers of stock market history now have a dilemma on their hands. Will they record history showing November 21, 2008 as the market low of this bear market or will they use yesterday, February 19, 2009. Well, it depends on which stock index the writer uses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index ($DJX) actually surpassed its November 21, 2008 low by 2 cents yesterday while the other major averages remained above their November 21, 2008 lows. Of course media glommed onto this two cent difference with phrases like "the Dow's lowest point since October 2002". Awesome headline, and technically they are right, but what good is it? In contrast, the calm, cool and collected ShadowTraderPro now presents you our rational approach to make money from the price action while the media lathers up the rest of the world in the days to come. ShadowTraders, let us proceed to the charts below. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090220Dan.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> Above is a daily chart of the $DJX. We monitored it very closely yesterday for any signs of a lasting bounce with the thinking that if this occurred, the other indexes would follow suit and rally. The market really never built a head of steam and ended the day weak. As a result of the $DJX's failure to bounce and overall market weakness, we are now comfortable with the view that the $DJX will undercut this support level and trade lower. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090220Dan2.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> We are staying with the plan that as the $DJX makes its move to new lows, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) will follow suit and trade down to test its own November 21, 2008 low. At that point, we believe the $SPX will be set for a playable bounce and we intend to profit from it. We will state again that we are not calling this "the" low, but rather a point where the $SPX may change direction for the near term as buyers will have orders set at this level in an attempt to "buy the bottom", cover shorts, and/or play the bounce as we intend. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090220Dan3.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> Above is a chart of yesterday's top performing sector, the Oil Service Sector Index ($OSX). We highlighted the $OSX in yesterday's ShadowTraderPro Focus Report recognizing the probability that it would move higher, and it did. The $OSX was up over 5% yesterday and ended the day up over 2%. If you entered either Baker Hughes Inc (BHI) or Oil Services Holders T (OIH), which were both listed in yesterday's Bulls and Bears section, here is how to play the trades going forward. Hold your stops at their original price levels. Even if the market trades lower as we have described above, we don't expect that the BHI or OIH will decline to trigger the current stop points below Wednesday's lows. Both issues gapped up yesterday and held their ground closing with doji patterns. If the $SPX rallies off its November 21, 2008 low as we anticipate, both BHI and OIH should benefit and rally higher as well.

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 22, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. We presented our thesis for trading the first few days of this week in the ShadowTrader Video Weekly, so if you haven't watched the video yet, please do. If you have seen the video you know that our plan centers on the distraction the Dow Industrial Average Index ($DJX) has created. It has made new lows and frenzied media outlets. The reality though, is that the $DJX is out of sync with the other major indices which have not broken lows set on November 21, 2008. So the poor individual investor who makes decisions based on "breaking news" through their HDTV and the skewed representation of the stock market by the $DJX is once again set up to experience the frustration of being late to the party by either selling long positions here or entering short trades. What we see at ShadowTraderPro however, is a fantastic opportunity to exploit for gains to the long side. Our weekly video is a free service. It is here in the ShadowTraderPro Focus Report and through our ShadowTrader Pro Advisories that our paying subscribers receive the more specific information necessary to execute our trading plans. So let's get right to it. Staying in line with our "top down" method let's review the broader market first by examining a chart of the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) below. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090223Dan.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> As the $DJX was hitting new lows last week, the $SPX
came within 13.23 points of its November 21, 2008 low. Whether or not it trades down to hit the prior low price is not a concern to us, in fact, the $SPX traded low enough on Friday to constitute a "test" of previous lows. It has been our experience that waiting for price to hit the exact prior low can prove to be costly as it does not always occur. We have set up our trading plans based on playing a bounce on the $SPX from the area highlighted in green on the chart above. Before we go further, let us reiterate that we are not calling "the" bottom here. We are stating however, that the shaded green area, on the chart above, is a playable level that we think the market will rally from in the near term. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090223Dan2.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> We touched on how we like Deere & Co (DE) as a long play in the ShadowTrader Video Weekly for the simple fact that it has been down 9 consecutive days and has tested prior lows. Here are the specifics of the trading plan not included in the video and reserved for our subscribers. On Friday, we issued a ShadowTraderPro Advisory to initiate a long position of 100 shares at 29.57. We stated in the Advisory, "We'd like a larger size but the S&P may still move lower to test the 740 lows. If so, we'll be buying more DE
and other stocks at support…We are looking for at least a fibonacci retracement bounce up to the $33.50 area (green oval) which would also be prior lows from early February." We set our stop at 26.00 which is 2.00 below the support area. We think this will accommodate DE trading lower caused by $SPX trading down into the final 13.23 points before bouncing. If we are wrong and the $SPX
breaks prior lows and proceeds even lower, the number of shares in the first leg of the trade (100) and our stop price keep us within the maximum potential loss exposure that our rules allow ($500 on any one trade). We don't anticipate this happening though as DE has support at current levels that reach back to 2005. Also, the on balance volume - OBV (blue circle) is higher versus periods when DE traded at these levels in the past (orange circles). As stated in the original ShadowTraderPro Advisory sent out on DE, we may issue another advisory to add more shares to the position and adjust the stop as the trade moves in our favor. The Boeing (BA) trade we issued Friday through a ShadowTraderPro Advisory is similar in set up and execution to the DE trade. We wanted to look at AMZN ( below) because the setup is different from DE and BA. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090223Dan3.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) is showing the greatest strength of the major indices. AMZN is a component stock of this index and has also been very strong, particularly since January 6, 2009 when the broader market peaked. AMZN
gapped up on earnings and has remained above the gap in the face of the most recent leg down in the market. Because of this performance, we think it is the perfect stock to be long once the $SPX begins to bounce. The increased on balance volume - OBV (blue box) tells us that larger players believe the stock will head higher also. The bull pennant price formation is encouraging as Friday's close actually sits outside of the upper trend line. We are listing AMZN in today's Bulls and Bears section as a buy at 64.25 with a stop at 61.40

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 23, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. Well boys and girls, it finally happened. After months of pundits on TV saying that the bottom would not be in until we had a retest of the November lows, we actually went there yesterday with the S&P 500 ($SPX) touching down to 742.37. Whether or not this is a bottom is of course another story. Let's look at a chart first and then get into some trading ideas. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090224Dan.GIF"> Each of the major stock indices (excluding the NASDAQ 100) has closed lower for the last six consecutive trading days. During that time the $SPX has declined 11%. Based on yesterdays lower close and the reaction it may garner in pre-market trading, it is possible that the market will gap lower at the open. In this case, ShadowTrader will be looking to fade the gap as most gaps that follow protracted moves like yesterdays are created by amateur traders who tend to be late to the party. Otherwise, we are assuming that this support level will hold on the $SPX and we will not only maintain our current long positions, but look to add some more. One of our long positions Deere & Co. (DE) is the markets poster child of oversold stocks. It has now been down 10 straight days. We see this highly unusual circumstance as favorable to our long position. Below are two other long plays that we have also listed in today's Bulls and Bears section. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090224Dan2.GIF"> Netlogic Microsystems, Inc. (NETL) is showing sensational strength in the face of the recent market decline. This is reflected in its high on-balance volume - OBV and the stocks refusal to retrace into the prior gap. Yesterdays inverted hammer gives us excellent points to place our entry and stop prices as noted on the chart. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090224Dan3.GIF"> Today's other long play is Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP). The stock has been down for six consecutive days and it's momentum to the downside appears to be weakening as evidenced by yesterdays lower volume. This declining momentum combined with the stocks approach into prior support for the first time is just the type of trade we like given the current overall market condition. We placed the stop 2.00 under the lowest level of the buy range, so be sure to proportion the number of shares purchased with your rules regarding risk maximums. Finally, if you haven't done so already, please read our Focus Report User's Guide. There is a link to it in the Model Portfolio section below. It discusses all of our trading principles including the 15 minute rule as it applies to gaps at the open.

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 24, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. This morning we are adding the next component to the bounce play off the November 21, 2008 low which we have been preparing for and discussing in the last several ShadowTraderPro Focus Reports. Please observe the chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX) below. <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090225Dan.GIF"> The gray area on the chart above represents our target for the $SPX in coming days.
This target area was derived by combining the first level of overhead resistance (magenta trend line), with the 50% level of a Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the high on February 9, 2009 to Monday's low. It is not uncommon for a price retracement of a prior move to reach the 50% level and the fact that the first level of resistance is very close to it gives us more confidence that, outside of any unforeseen developements, taking profits around the gray area should prove to be a wise choice. There are not many prettier things in the eyes of a true stock geek than the chart above.
 Although we were stopped out of Boeing Co. (BA), we did add more long positions to the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio yesterday. We took advantage of a pull back in Netlogic Microsystems (NETL) to purchase shares as the stock has been strong during recent market weakness. We also bought Monsanto (MON) after a washout of yesterdays first 15 minute bar below support. We added 100 more shares to our position in Deere & Co. (DE) as the stock gained strength and closed near its high on good volume. The average price of our two purchases in the stock is now 28.56. We are leaving the stop at 26.00 for the moment, but we have adjusted our target to 33.00. We are confident in our trading plan, but it is important to remember the environment is news driven. Because surprise announcements can change the trading landscape almost instantly, it is important to set and honor stops as we move forward.

ShadowTrader_08 · Feb 25, 2009

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Good Morning, Traders. In spite of a slow start in the morning, we see yesterday's overall market action as bullish for the continuation of a near term rise in stocks. Let's zoom in on yesterday's trading by viewing the chart below. <img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090226Dan.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> Above is yesterday's chart of the S&P 500 (SPX) and the NYSE AD Line. The AD Line hit it's low for the day at -2000 after Existing Home Sales were released 45 minutes earlier. From there it moved all the way back up to +350 at 3:30 PM before settling back to end the day at -774. The fact that AD came back from such a depth is more impressive to us than closing the day at a level below zero. It tells us that the bears had a very strong grip on the market early but could not hold it down after 10:45 AM. Previously during this bear market, if AD hit the -2000 level anytime during the day, you could have counted on price ending the day with a good sized decline. So we think the markets ability to recover from this AD level reinforces our opinion that the market will move higher in the near term. 
 It is also interesting to note that neither the AD Line nor the SPX broke the rising trend line from 12:45 PM in spite of the retracement in the last 25 minutes of trading. Now let's look at a trading plan for one of today's Bulls and Bears plays Concho Resources Inc (CXO) below. 

<img src="http://assets.shadowtrader.net/charts/090226Dan2.GIF" width="560" border="5" height="650"> The first thing we took notice of was the pattern that price and volume have made in the past when CXO reached reversal points. We have highlighted the price bar and corresponding volume bar of four prior reversal points since last November. It appears that this pattern is now supporting today's long play of CXO as yesterday's price bar pattern indicates a reversal off support with above average volume. Another important supporting indication for a long play is that on-balance volume-OBV is much higher than previous times when the price of CXO was at the same level. We have listed this trade with the entry point 10 cents above yesterday's high and the stop 10 cents below yesterday's low. Bulls and Bears listings are for those ShadowTraders who want to manage the trades on their own, so we do not list a target price. However, we have highlighted an area on the chart (green) where we think a logical target could be placed.

ShadowTrader Focus Report_2008

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