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The Big Picture
Good Morning, Traders. Judging by Thursday's bullish action one could have read between the lines and assumed the market was telling us Friday's unemployment report was going to be a non-factor. Well you know what happens when we assume.....! As always we will not concern ourselves with the why, but unemployment came in higher than expected which triggered a significant gap down in the market on the open. The selling didn't let up all day and intensified into the close. Now that our short recap is out of the way let's get into some charts.
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609SPX.gif">
The S&P is now back below the 50ma, and with Friday's monster ugly red bar down the odds highly favor a test of the mid-Aril lows around 1324 noted on the chart above. There is another low just beneath 1324 at the end of March that could also come into play. The back to back wide ranged bars in the S&P is the biggest volatility we have seen since the market bottomed out with two consecutive wide bar days on 3/17 & 3/18.
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609INDU.gif">
In looking at the chart of everybody's favorite laggard above, the Dow Jones, we clearly see support at the weekly uptrendline that would intersect somewhere near the 12,000 level. One run through the symbols in the Dow and it doesn't look pretty. <B>GE</B> and <B>C</B> broke down from tight ranged consolidations at the lows and <B>BAC</B> broke to new 52 week lows. Some of the better names that have held up recently are beginning to lose trend, as <B>CAT</B> and <B>JNJ</B> closed below their 50ma's on heavy volume.
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609OSX.gif">
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609XOI.gif">
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609DJUSNS.gif"
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609SOX.gif">
The reason why we believe that any pullback in the market will not lead to a new leg down is shown on weekly charts above, where we see bullish consolidations and leadership from oil stocks ($XOI) & ($OSX), as well as internets ($DJUSNS), and new found strength from semiconductors ($SOX). We feel that it will be tough for the market to enter a prolonged correction with so much divergence among key groups/sectors.
Crude oil exploded to new highs due to the Euro laying the smack down and rallying about 3 cents versus the dollar over the past two sessions. Oil has been and will continue to be a favorite hedge against a weak dollar for the pros. We see precious metals stepping it up with <b>GLD</b> and <b>SLV</b> primed to head higher and possibly break the downtrend lines of their current consolidations.
Watch yesterday's <i>ShadowTrader Video Weekly</I> for that key level in the Banking Index which could be a clue as to where this thing bottoms out. If that level gets tested and we see sellers all throwing in the towel at once on a big volume push at or near the $SPX and $INDU levels above, we would be looking to get aggressively long at that juncture in some strong names.
The Big Picture
Good Morning, Traders. Judging by Thursday's bullish action one could have read between the lines and assumed the market was telling us Friday's unemployment report was going to be a non-factor. Well you know what happens when we assume.....! As always we will not concern ourselves with the why, but unemployment came in higher than expected which triggered a significant gap down in the market on the open. The selling didn't let up all day and intensified into the close. Now that our short recap is out of the way let's get into some charts.
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609SPX.gif">
The S&P is now back below the 50ma, and with Friday's monster ugly red bar down the odds highly favor a test of the mid-Aril lows around 1324 noted on the chart above. There is another low just beneath 1324 at the end of March that could also come into play. The back to back wide ranged bars in the S&P is the biggest volatility we have seen since the market bottomed out with two consecutive wide bar days on 3/17 & 3/18.
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609INDU.gif">
In looking at the chart of everybody's favorite laggard above, the Dow Jones, we clearly see support at the weekly uptrendline that would intersect somewhere near the 12,000 level. One run through the symbols in the Dow and it doesn't look pretty. <B>GE</B> and <B>C</B> broke down from tight ranged consolidations at the lows and <B>BAC</B> broke to new 52 week lows. Some of the better names that have held up recently are beginning to lose trend, as <B>CAT</B> and <B>JNJ</B> closed below their 50ma's on heavy volume.
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609OSX.gif">
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609XOI.gif">
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609DJUSNS.gif"
<img border=5 width= 550 height=660 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080609SOX.gif">
The reason why we believe that any pullback in the market will not lead to a new leg down is shown on weekly charts above, where we see bullish consolidations and leadership from oil stocks ($XOI) & ($OSX), as well as internets ($DJUSNS), and new found strength from semiconductors ($SOX). We feel that it will be tough for the market to enter a prolonged correction with so much divergence among key groups/sectors.
Crude oil exploded to new highs due to the Euro laying the smack down and rallying about 3 cents versus the dollar over the past two sessions. Oil has been and will continue to be a favorite hedge against a weak dollar for the pros. We see precious metals stepping it up with <b>GLD</b> and <b>SLV</b> primed to head higher and possibly break the downtrend lines of their current consolidations.
Watch yesterday's <i>ShadowTrader Video Weekly</I> for that key level in the Banking Index which could be a clue as to where this thing bottoms out. If that level gets tested and we see sellers all throwing in the towel at once on a big volume push at or near the $SPX and $INDU levels above, we would be looking to get aggressively long at that juncture in some strong names.