AAA, thanks for the post. Its a difficult strategy to test since sometimes someone is active in a 13D filing, sometimes a DFAN14A and sometimes files a 13D but is never active. I've tried the following test: going back to Jan 2002, take the first 5 13D filings each month that appeared to be active. Buy and hold for six months. Through 2006. The results were about positive 21%+ per year (including 2002) but a couple of points:
a. there was a lot of monthly volatility, drastically bringing down significance.
b. since 2002 its been a great time for any "short volatility" strategy which these activists exemplify.
c. In my own trading I like to also find pre-activist situations (where the activists disclose a holding in a 13G or 13F-HR but not yet active). Its harder to backtest that.
Which brings me to the site. Initially I built and was just using the software for myself to automatically scrape filings and find ideas based on new filings that were correlated with my own picks. But I figured it would be valuable to anybody without hurting my own trading so I decided to open it up to others. I figured it would be a great way to share ideas and to get new ideas.
There's no ads on the site and the site is 100% free so I don't feel compelled to advertise a non-business that I think is valuable for people. Maybe that would somehow change but I'm busy enough with my fund of funds, trading, and writing.
Basically, you enter in a portfolio and can then see, Amazon-style, the picks recommended for you "based on the picks of other portfolios". I picked about 300 hedge funds and mutual funds (plus Buffett, Soros, Icahn, etc) that I considered the best and I get all of their top holdings based on13G, 13D, 13F-HR and other filings. Then there's every one else's portfolio and you can choose if you want to see recs from everyone or just the pro portfolios.
You can then drill down on funds to see all their holdings. Stocks, to see all the funds in them, etc. But I should definitely be more clear about the whole thing.
