This is a great analysis of Jack Hershey's so called trading logs !!!
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Sexy Idea...
- Thread starter sunseeker
- Start date
This is a great analysis of Jack Hershey's so called trading logs !!!
from Grob109
Here is one thought for you. If you wish, at some point, take my example to heart on one matter. I do not trade on the 1 minute chart nor do I ever in my life recommend anything to anyone with respect to 1 minute data. This is apparently unknown to chicken little.
Quote from Grob109:
That is the situation as you note.
This is one of the highest rate of money transfers from edge traders to systematic traders. On Friday I think there were nine consecutive bars of HVS. The stall shifted a step down and except for that the bars alternated red and black consistently all the way through.
I periodically introduce a new and more pervasive concept regarding making money. The HVS is a very focused one it turns out.
You immediately perceive that this is an opportunity to extract money from edge traders who are caught in a very fast paced whipsawing when they apply a "set up" (usually with no exit strategy associated with the set up*) and then sit there are get screwed.
Our focus is on extraction during this persistence period of the edgers. The key strategic element to recognize is that the edgers are on an automatic disciplined failure modus. They do a two step process followed by the market completing their turn. They manually recognize and enter a set up; they place stops; they get taken out by the market. We are the market.
The thing we do is never violate mixing data from the slow medium and fast three levels of analysis. We focus on only the one level that is at hand. That is easy. Perspective C (the slow level where C was chosen from A, B, or C as a simple task) says HVS. The middle level, as HVS is applied, is as simple as before, you "go to" the fast level and get to work. The middle level applies to a pair of bars (present and prior on the trading fractal); this is an intrabar situation. You go the the fast level primarily because you are extracting money so fast that only the present bar is involved. So the middle level says go to the fast level and hang out. This is just simply saying that the two bar comparison will not apply. I know the above is redundant.
Most traders are on a fast level all the time and they simply continue to take signals from all over the place and mix them. Think of all the posts that talk about sentiment collecting (slow level). It comes from trailing talking heads on the radio or TV that people watch as they trade. Ugh. They are doomed by spuriousness.
We apply our stuff to the 1 min bars that spread the HVS of the 5 min single bar out. This is done ONLY under HVS. 1 min barsmay never be used otherwise. If they are the trader gets screwed. It is strange to say, but the reason most traders fail is because they trade the 1 min bars when 1 min bars cannot synthesize the trend of the market. Trends are not NOW things as 1 min bars are. To know and get signals from trends you have to be comparative on the fractal that allows the trend comparisons. You may only leave the trading fractal when an intrabar analysis is required. Above is the raison d'etre of "I always leave money on the table" and "I have a hair trigger".
HVS is where one 5 minute bar is traversed one or more time during it's formation and existence. It is the time when you make more money than you can make on a fast paced "rocket".
I only mentor this to meta experts. It is the highest money velocity extraction that is possible. You actually are using money from pairs of edgers who are giving it to you. You use the IF 1 and IF 2 on 1 min bars and also apply AA as many times as required with the caveat that you apply it alternatively long and short. This isolates the APA from the IF's by not allowing it to be used without using IF's in between. You cannot use APA consecutively, ever.
I draw a horizontal line on the Trading description sheet when I go to work on HVS. It is the limit of efficiency in taking money out of the market. It is literally "cutting and pasting" from a set of four possible orders. A tattoo that keeps you on the right side of the market as usual.
The 300 second sequence segways automatically into the next one. Most HVS situations are 2.2 to 3.0 points in ES. The target potential is 2x the HVS volatility every 300 seconds. The nine bars Friday, were exceptionally linked for the segways and they ran @ 3.0. This is about two months profits for the dominate ET'er they tell us.
All of this is, of course ridiculous and fits in the category of claims. And if anyone complains to a moderator about this post, the post will probably be expunged. On the other hand, there is always someone on the other side of the edgers, and probably these people are not well represented in ET. Maybe some day they will get a chance here. But not so far, it turns out.
They had a contest here recently. One guy screwed up a real losing trade right off (he had no losers for the day, he said); he let the loser sit for most of the day until the price returned to that area of the chart, then he traded that order to get a profit. If you look at the bunch of posters in that thread, nobody knew what was going on at all. You can't post trades on ET satisfactorily if you are a systems trader. Mostly because of being busy and secondly because of the quality and capability of ET.
* edge strategies are notorious for focusing on easily identifiable patterns (A habitual exercise conducted by people who do not understand making money in markets, nor markets themselves) that can be used as "set ups". Instead of following through reasonably (this is a statement about thinking) and dealing with the other half of the construct: exiting. They turn to risk management in an unknown situation. For some reason they do back testing on set up entries and an R/R they invented which in turn yields a "drawdown limit". A convention of 8 consecutive losses then sizes their application of capital. You see about 5 Band-Aids used to avoid dealing with being understanding (understanding of the market). What systematic traders do is simply extract the money from these people. The crucial opportunity is to take it away is when the drawdown limit is reached. Edge traders savor discipline. This discipline feeds the market money continually. Only breaches of discipline prevent the flow. The breaches are uniformly classified as when they quit. There are two levels of quitting. Consecutive set up entries that fail. And overall concessions of set up failure and quitting the setup. "I average 1 point a day" is the approximate place people get to just prior to not making any money per day. There is not a lot of wiggle room between one point and 0 points.
Ok...so Grob in the past (October 2003) had used the 1min chart along with other chart intervals.
Recently as in May 2006, he no longer uses that interval nor will he ever recommend it to anyone.
Am I correct or did he say somewhere else that he never used the 1 minute chart interval???
Mark
Recently as in May 2006, he no longer uses that interval nor will he ever recommend it to anyone.
Am I correct or did he say somewhere else that he never used the 1 minute chart interval???
Mark
Quote from NihabaAshi:
Ok...so Grob in the past (October 2003) had used the 1min chart along with other chart intervals.
Today (May 2006), he no longer uses that interval nor will he ever recommend it to anyone.
Am I correct???
Mark
When Banzan was walking through a market he overheard a conversation between a butcher and his customer.
"Give me the best piece of meat you have," said the customer.
"Everything in my shop is the best," replied the butcher. "You cannot find here any piece of meat that is not the best."
At these words Banzan became enlightened.
Quote from Chicken Little:
When Banzan was walking through a market he overheard a conversation between a butcher and his customer.
"Give me the best piece of meat you have," said the customer.
"Everything in my shop is the best," replied the butcher. "You cannot find here any piece of meat that is not the best."
At these words Banzan became enlightened.
"Most people receive very little training on how to live effectively and harmoniously with themselves and others. This I believe is an unfortunate outcome of our parenting beliefs and methods, as well as society's educational systems. It seems to me these beliefs and systems empathize academic and vocational skills and place little or no emphasis or value on providing a person with the essential skills to live a life of personal fulfillment, contribution and self actualization. I believe it would be a safe assumption that the great majority of people work at jobs in which they find very little personal satisfaction. Without proper training on how to make wise choices in one's life, the chances are very slim anyone will make them."
_____________
"You can choose to be happy or sad and whichever you choose that is what you get. No one is really responsible to make someone else happy, no matter what most people have been taught and accept as true"
Sidney Madwed
Quote from NihabaAshi:
"Most people receive very little training on how to live effectively and harmoniously with themselves and others. This I believe is an unfortunate outcome of our parenting beliefs and methods, as well as society's educational systems. It seems to me these beliefs and systems empathize academic and vocational skills and place little or no emphasis or value on providing a person with the essential skills to live a life of personal fulfillment, contribution and self actualization. I believe it would be a safe assumption that the great majority of people work at jobs in which they find very little personal satisfaction. Without proper training on how to make wise choices in one's life, the chances are very slim anyone will make them."
_____________
"You can choose to be happy or sad and whichever you choose that is what you get. No one is really responsible to make someone else happy, no matter what most people have been taught and accept as true"
Sidney Madwed
Myths are stories that express meaning, morality or motivation. Whether they are true or not is irrelevant.
Michael Shermer
Progress was always realized by those that showed that they are / can do better than the others, not by those that strived to put down other people or other people's work.
Think before replying, and maybe you'll wisely decide not to reply.
Think before replying, and maybe you'll wisely decide not to reply.
Quote from Chicken Little:
Why don't YOU move on ? Aren't all the kool aid drinkers moving to Guyana ?