setup for a bottom

K

krazykarl

-lower oil prices from 20-yr high inventory and lower forcast from OPEC
-speculation removed from commodities
-large amounts of liquidity removed from the growth index.(NDX)


I am no bond expert; people smarter then I noticed the bond market is acting as if the fed is going to stop after june. I think the soft-landing that Greenspan wanted is being desguised as a correction.


My call: the drops in the indicies will get smaller and smaller over the coming weeks leading to a reversal as the market sectors bottom out. The catalyst for a reversal in trend will be the US fed becoming consistent and starting to talk about inflation being contained.
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

appreciate the commentary... great thoughts...
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Thanks, I'm trying to qualify my observations.

I don't feel we are oversold right now, I thought we were last week, but the market has more to give. The commodities still have not hit bottom, and I feel they will be the last sector to find a bottom. TIE still has more hemoraging to do.

I watch specific companies in a sector for hints at the overall sentament of a sector - tech looks like it's starting to put in a bottom. AAPL is looking like agood buy in the upper 50s, and I recently started a long vertical spread on OTM calls.

For my "utopia" to see fruition :cool: I need to see the VIX start to creep down slowly.
 
I think we need one of those days where we get a REALLY big selloff and then climb steadily higher to end near the HOD. Where's the real fear?
 
Quote from krazykarl:

-lower oil prices from 20-yr high inventory and lower forcast from OPEC
-speculation removed from commodities
-large amounts of liquidity removed from the growth index.(NDX)


I am no bond expert; people smarter then I noticed the bond market is acting as if the fed is going to stop after june. I think the soft-landing that Greenspan wanted is being desguised as a correction.


My call: the drops in the indicies will get smaller and smaller over the coming weeks leading to a reversal as the market sectors bottom out. The catalyst for a reversal in trend will be the US fed becoming consistent and starting to talk about inflation being contained.
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KK stop with your long calls. The S&P is down 90 points for a reason and its not going to change in a week. The stock market is an indicator of 9 months ahead. All I want to know is what’s going on with your aapl. I get the feeling you’re stuck in long positions and your hoping and dreaming and your not using common sense right now.
 
Quote from brokerboy:

KK stop with your long calls. The S&P is down 90 points for a reason and its not going to change in a week. The stock market is an indicator of 9 months ahead. All I want to know is what’s going on with your aapl. I get the feeling you’re stuck in long positions and your hoping and dreaming and your not using common sense right now.
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I'm not stuck in a long with AAPL - as I said, I have a long vertical spread on AAPL calls. I have been very direct in saying that nothing will change in a week, but it can change over several weeks. It only took 2 weeks to put us in this downward trend, and it can be reversed as easily if we start heading up and people think they are going to miss the boat.

The market moves 3 ways for a reason - don't be so naive to think down is the only way to go. I'm a self-confessed trend whore, if you're still short in 8 weeks you're just being greedy.
 
I am only a whore for a pretty girl haha. I am not picking a top or bottom. I think a trader goes in and out on the right opportunities. My point to you is the S&P does not drop 90 points because of basic confusion. There is a reason for its madness and it might go up 50 points tomorrow but this does not change the fact that it made a major turn. Markets move to extremes so it went up a lot more then it ever should of so odds are it will go down a lot more then it should.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

bump for comment from the bears.
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Longer term , I am looking for 1150. However, I believe an interim extended bounce is likely shortly.
 
I really don’t know how far down we can go. If I was guessing I would think longer term its going lower then 1150. In a good economy everybody’s standard of living goes up a little. I really think only the wealthy made money over the last few years. I would not be shocked to see 1000 S&P not because it belongs there but markets move to extremes.
 
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