Setting stop, Averaging down 1 time, whipsaw

hi NoDoji

Here's an example of my recent trade wfc:

wfc3.gif is intraday 1 min interval chart
wfc2.gif is 20 days chart

At 9:35am, i rush to buy wfc at 9:35am at $27.64, size 500, the reason being on seeing 20 days chart, it has been beaten down quite badly, so today it is gap up +1.5%, so i thought today is strong rebound day, bought in without any stop, and don't want to miss the boat

Then 9:39am it goes to $27.45, then 9:47am, it goes higher to $27.68. Then started to go down $27.37, then up to $27.5, then down to $27.3 at 10:07am.

At 10:12am, i average in 1 time at $27.38, size 300, thinking this is quite low price, and also thinking now at 20 days chart, it is quite low in price, cannot drop lower.

Then it drop to $27.2 at 10:30am, then goes up to $27.44, then down to $27.35.

At 11:21am, on seeing the environement turning bad, i intend to cut loss and take a loss -$202.

The above is just an example of how i bought without stop, and did 1 time average down. I will try not to average down more than 1 time, because i have encountered too many average down monsters

Pls comment thanks.

ps, any good chart software to recommend, now i'm using prophet.net charts

Quote from NoDoji:

You're overtrading instead of waiting patiently for high probability setups and/or you have no idea how to place stops that are likely to survive. Whenever I enter a trade based on what I think will happen, but the confirmation has not yet occurred, I get stopped out. It doesn't matter if I use tight stops again and again, or if I place a wide stop, it ends badly because a true setup has not yet occurred. I can be completely right on direction, but too early in makes "right" meaningless.

I've had some overtrading days in the past few months, thankfully rare. They were losing days despite several awesome trades occurring. What would happen on these days is I would get into a trade, move my stop too soon, get stopped out, watch the trade move big time in my favor without me on board, then the cycle of insanity would start. I'd be looking to "get it back" and I'd enter a trade too soon before it was "ripe", then get stopped out, try again, stopped out, and finally I'd catch the confirmed setup, watch my P/L get back near break even and...exit the trade (whew, back to even!).

Do you know what happened next? The trade moved further in my favor big time. Why? Because it was an actual CONFIRMED setup. So as a result of impatience and overtrading, I let my losing P/L influence a truly excellent setup and I'd leave 2-3 times on the table what I took out of it.

I started asking myself: What would happen if I waited patiently and ONLY traded one confirmed setup like that each day and allowed it to run? The answer is that I'd make enough each day to pay my bills!

Please post a chart of the AAPL trade above and indicate your entry exit points and a bunch of us will tell you what you did wrong :D
 
hi limitupmike2,

Currently i'm not using stop at all, but at least i'll still cut loss at midday if it is really that weak.

Yes, i use small size now, but wondering how to avoid the day when suddenly, i thought it is the bottom day, and i buy with all my buying power, forgetting about the small size rule, i mean the act of buying impulse, how to have some hard control to avoid sudden buying sprint

Thanks
Quote from limitupmike2:

1. don't use stops
2. lower size
3. take the heat until your guess is correct
4. LOWER SIZE.. so even if stock drops 2 bucks it does not affect you
 
Above all else, this stock is in a major downtrend. The professionals are going to be shorting the rallies until the trend is no longer their friend.

Short the rallies, don't fight the trend! Short that delectable double top that set up just after 9:45!

If you want to counter trend this puppy intraday, at least wait for confirmation via a higher low (which occurred around 9:39). And then take at least half your profits quickly in case the trend is still everyone's friend (which it was).

Quote from innovest_11:

At 9:35am, i rush to buy wfc at 9:35am at $27.64, size 500, the reason being on seeing 20 days chart, it has been beaten down quite badly, so today it is gap up +1.5%, so i thought today is strong rebound day, bought in without any stop, and don't want to miss the boat

Your key mistakes can be found in the words "I thought" and "don't want to miss the boat".

What YOU think is irrelevant. Watch the price action to determine what the biggest crowd thinks, then let them carry you along!

As for missing the boat, I've churned SO MUCH money away getting into trades before they're confirmed. Trust me, if you're a day trader trading short time frames and brief moves, another boat comes along every 10-20 minutes :cool:

Quote from innovest_11:

At 10:12am, i average in 1 time at $27.38, size 300, thinking this is quite low price, and also thinking now at 20 days chart, it is quite low in price, cannot drop lower.

Look at SWM's chart on 2/10. Now look at SWM's chart on 2/11 to find out what happens when you average down because it's quite low and can't drop lower.

If you put on technically confirmed trades, you can use really tight stops. Your losses will be small and you'll start to enjoy catching the big waves that the market offers.
 
Quote from limitupmike2:

1. don't use stops
2. lower size
3. take the heat until your guess is correct
4. LOWER SIZE.. so even if stock drops 2 bucks it does not affect you

You are making the dangerous assumption the trader is dutifully following the market rather than fighting it. If a trader is against the market, which almost always the case in fast blowups, he/she should pay a stiff price for taking a poor trade. Trading so small as to not "feel" anything in a trade is a recipe for careless trades. The tiny size becomes an excuse for carelessness.

I say use a small stop and wait for better trades.
 
Quote from limitupmike2:

1. don't use stops
2. lower size
3. take the heat until your guess is correct
4. LOWER SIZE.. so even if stock drops 2 bucks it does not affect you

that is the worst advice ever posted to the internet; anywhere.
 
Quote from innovest_11:

hi limitupmike2,

Currently i'm not using stop at all, but at least i'll still cut loss at midday if it is really that weak.

Yes, i use small size now, but wondering how to avoid the day when suddenly, i thought it is the bottom day, and i buy with all my buying power, forgetting about the small size rule, i mean the act of buying impulse, how to have some hard control to avoid sudden buying sprint

Thanks

YOU SHOULD NEVER HAVE A SITUATION WHERE YOU LOSE YOUR IMPULSE CONTROL... of course not using stops you still muse be aware of your target profit and your exit threshhold.. or pain or loss threshold... if you are afraid of blowing out by using all your buying power then pull out 75 % of your account .. and trade with 25 % so if you do blow it all it is only 25 %
 
Quote from Rashid_G.:

You are making the dangerous assumption the trader is dutifully following the market rather than fighting it. If a trader is against the market, which almost always the case in fast blowups, he/she should pay a stiff price for taking a poor trade. Trading so small as to not "feel" anything in a trade is a recipe for careless trades. The tiny size becomes an excuse for carelessness.

I say use a small stop and wait for better trades.

Rashid brought up a very valid point.. and i was absolutely assuming this guy "knows" his forecastign ability.. i am often counter trend trading shorter time frames and longer term trading .. with the trend.. all intra day.. but I always KNOW exactly what i think the market will do.. sometimes i am wrong and sometimes I am right.. most of teh time I am correct in my assumptions.. OBVIOUSLY if you have no clue as to how you think the market will react in in the next hour to 3 hours or by the close then you have no business trading at all..

p.s. I never assumed he was going with the trend.. I assumed he or she knows what they believe the market will do for their time frame.. you can use all of my rules trading counter trend as well..
 
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