Quote from Swan Noir:
Clearly your point about the decline of empires being a process that is difficult to date and time stamp is correct. Because of that I think it becomes easier to protect yourself (I assume that is what you seek -- to survive and even prosper) if you leave some old paradigms behind and try some new ones on for size. In the chaos it will be difficult to know if the current reality -- say a deflationary spiral -- will last for a long period or if clumsy government action will flip an inflation switch. Or, conversely, if an inflationary spiral will throw so many impediments in our way that stagflation in the extreme becomes the norm.
Given the unpredictable nature regarding the specifics of the collapse that we all sense is coming and adding that precise timing is always impossible, assets have much greater value when actively managed by someone acutely attuned to the reality of the moment and not wedded to the belief that Tuesday has much in common with Monday. What has great value today may be set quickly into decline tomorrow. Real estate may be fine and dandy in 2012 and 2013 yet a sinkhole after that. Metals may be the answer today yet, if rates ratchet up to 15% on Fed funds, today's answer may become the short of the century. An extreme flexibility of approach is key. What works in March may well be suicidal in November. It's not just the force of the storm that will create danger but the shifting of the wind without notice and the collapse of even the ground we stand on that will make it nearly impossible to navigate.
It is not about buying gold and sitting on it like a religion (although the services are quite lovely at the moment) or shunning real estate because it has tanked. It is about maintaining a fair level of liquidity at all times, watching counter-party risk like a hawk, moving with great speed when your gut tells you that makes sense and ignoring every single bit of establishment reassurance. Question everything. The propaganda machine will gear up to levels that would shock even Orwell. And in the chaos there will be an urge to believe in something. MAKE THAT SOMETHING ONLY THE PRODUCT OF YOUR OWN ASSESSMENTS.
I recommend reading LORDS of FINANCE. Not a page turner and a bit long winded but, given that it examines the insanity of central bankers in the late 20's and early 30's, a must read. Oh, and most important of all, starting tomorrow morning and the every morning ask yourself how many of this country's leaders (business, finance, government, unions, press) would you trust with anything or anyone you care about. Then ask yourself how many of them could do a good job running a small business with 20 employees and no subsidies or monopoly position. Figure out what you believe about the integrity and competence level among those that are about to be sorely tested. Face the truth about the madmen we have turned over the keys to the Kingdom to. And keep asking yourself those questions as it all hits the fan. Leave behind partisan thinking and recognize that they are all incredibly dangerous. They live in a bubble untouched by the reality that swirls around them. They reassure each other that their skills will "see us through". Recognize that dry rot slowly and quietly destroys what was once a solid foundation ... and that the destruction is nearly complete.
We are in for a storm the likes of which has not been seen for centuries and we have Moe, Larry and Curly at the helm. And even worse all of the stooges are corrupt to their core. The central problem is a simple one to describe yet an impossible one to cure. The Empire -- the USA -- is collapsing as we speak. It is increasingly being held together with spit and glue as are the hinterlands. No one knows when the key I-beams will give way; it is not a planned demolition it is a collapse. Yet unlike when Great Britain entered its slide and we stood ready to hold the reins of power there is no entity on earth that is ready to replace us. Think about that. As we fall there is no leader to replace us. No reserve currency, no lender of last resort, no one to police the flareups that occur ... no one in charge. Nature abhors a vacuum and if there is not strength, integrity and competence to fill it, that vacuum will be filled by pure power no mater how evil it may be. As Shakespeare wrote "let slip the dogs of war". Chaos knows no bounds. What starts as financial turmoil frequently ends as all encompassing. We are at the precipice.
