K, I guess my example was too pointed. You seem to think "you" meant you, specifically. I was speaking rhetorically.
Jeez.
Serious Question
- Thread starter Real Money
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K, I guess my example was too pointed. You seem to think "you" meant you, specifically. I was speaking rhetorically.
Jeez.
Oh. I'm not trying to call you out man.
You said you have sim results and I got interested. I'm not trying to brag or show off here. I respect you because you do trade futures man. I have been watching the market action and it is crazy lately. Up days, down days, chop, swings, reversals, and Trump jawboning the thing. You gotta be stressed out maintaining equity exposure in that mess.
You said you have sim results and I got interested. I'm not trying to brag or show off here. I respect you because you do trade futures man. I have been watching the market action and it is crazy lately. Up days, down days, chop, swings, reversals, and Trump jawboning the thing. You gotta be stressed out maintaining equity exposure in that mess.
My point is, again, that one cannot truly understand their success rate through sim results unless it is with a live account. With an auto-strat, yes, that is unbiased. It is what it is.
But you HAVE to go live with it to truly feel the emotions of watching your account balance fluctuate for hundreds or thousands of dollars during a day.
Sim results are bollocks. Means NOTHING except for the mechanical portion of trading. How the executions play out, perhaps, but more importantly what the platform does.
I'm going to give you a great example.
When I started learning futures 5 years ago, I did the most fuckton of research and study and testing you would not believe. And more study. And more testing. ATMs. Chart types. Timeframes. Different instruments across all the parameters with the indicator package I had, and customized those indicators for each instrument. I developed Ninja ATMs for each instrument I traded, and was in the process of testing them forward. There had been progress!
The trading machine was on 24/7 running test after test...I parsed the results for everything.
And I finally found a system that worked for me, which was swinging equities. After all that falderal. And as I finally started to feel my groove and started making good scratch, early 2018 happened. The FACK.
I tried to adapt, but the markets started doing what they do (the unexpected), and here we are. All my research, ATM testing etc. went all out the window. Everything was gone, because the market took a new turn, and that was greater range in daily ATH/RTH.
I have attempted to apply these old ATM strats on some trades this past week, and they get obliterated.
These are strats that look for an entry, on say NQ or GC, and expect to see nary a 100 tick movement over a day, so I hoped to get the 40 ticks in a day. That shit now happens in a picosecond.
That is the poison of learning futures trading from 2014 to 2017. Aug 2015 was the only aberration.
The markets are so over the place now, I have no choice but to use the ol' standard of stops and targets. I HATE that track, but I have no other outs. *sighs*
To OP: Assuming this whole thread isn't a troll, you are wasting your time bragging about an edge that most likely isn't even real. Sim/Paper trading is worthless for high frequency. Get back to us once you have traded live for a while. If your real results after a few months are even 1/10 of what you claimed then congratulations will be in order.
What's an ATM? Or, maybe should say what is a "Ninja ATM."
I'm not bragging, if you read OP it says what would you do with a (good) edge. I didn't think it would just be a bunch of guys talking shit but that's what happened.
There is a massive informational asymmetry going on in the E-Minis. Retail can't tell what is driving price and so they just react to price/volume/quote stats whatever. As far as I can tell, traders don't understand the new dynamics. Either that or they are not adapting.
Yes you are. You've claimed to be a "math/stats genius" with a "structural edge" that can make 10% per day (direct quotes). That's definitely bragging even if it's true, which it almost certainly is not.
Also, you completely ignored the point of my post and just focused in on the word bragging.
Sim account trading is basically same as real account,it only fluctuate bigger than real account,because you dare to take risk.But it also blow up at the end as the result of your taking bigger risk.
No one can achieve consistency in sim account if he can't achieve consistency in real account.
No one can achieve consistency in sim account if he can't achieve consistency in real account.
I know that the practice has made me a much better trader. There are things that you just have to know. For example, at the end of the week the market gets thin, which can cause fast moves (and reversal).
Also, watching the book a lot (100s of hours) is pretty much required.
Let's say your goal is to get good at managing large position, say
~500k long and 550k short (with IV adjusted ratios)
You gonna just go do this with live money because 'sim trading is bollocks' or are you gonna practice managing significant exposures first. Hell, before I practiced a lot I didn't even know that you could cross hedge equity futures. That alone is an edge.
I know which choice I made and I'm glad I did.
This is professional shit man. I'm not dumb enough to think I can just pick entry and tp and sl (actually the edge I found makes that easy, but that's another story).
Also, watching the book a lot (100s of hours) is pretty much required.
Let's say your goal is to get good at managing large position, say
~500k long and 550k short (with IV adjusted ratios)
You gonna just go do this with live money because 'sim trading is bollocks' or are you gonna practice managing significant exposures first. Hell, before I practiced a lot I didn't even know that you could cross hedge equity futures. That alone is an edge.
I know which choice I made and I'm glad I did.
This is professional shit man. I'm not dumb enough to think I can just pick entry and tp and sl (actually the edge I found makes that easy, but that's another story).
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