Who is educating who here? You know about scaleability. I know about scaleability, order filling, and the rule of 72s. So do Bill Gates, George Soros and Warren Buffet. Can we cut the crap here?
Serious Question about Swing Trading
- Thread starter Smart Money
- Start date
Who is educating who here? You know about scaleability. I know about scaleability, order filling, and the rule of 72s. So do Bill Gates, George Soros and Warren Buffet. Can we cut the crap here?
I have a wife that would never let me build an account up to...say...$100,000 and "let it ride". Yes it does have a big element of discretion. On Thursday when the market went bonkers I was going to buy a ETF after the market opened. It gapped up almost 6% and my target sell price was to ride it to about 8%. So I abstained. And yeah, I watched it go skyward and thought to myself, "why didn't I catch that train?". But I remembered that I'd have only got 8% out of it. I did find a nice shorting opportunity though as stuff got stretched out of proportion. Seemed like the market hit a ceiling it couldn't break through. If it couldn't break it on Thursday, its going to have a tough time breaking it next week when the hangover sets in.
I think I've got the mental stuff down OK, but I admit that its hard. I've already figured out that if you swing trade correctly, the price will keep rising after you sell unless you're the luckiest person in the world. All part of it, and so is cutting your loss. Hey, if the pattern doesn't look almost perfect, I don't even jump in...deciding not to play and setting my stop are the sharpest tools in my toolkit. My biggest problem is that I don't let my winners run enough. I'm going to start using trailing stops even though I have to manually set them.
SM
My short already cashed me out with 10% profit. Hey, some Newbies make the cut. Maybe I'm one of them.
One more prediction to show that I'm real...if today isn't majorly down (like the stock markets aren't down 3 to 4% today, then we'll see the rest of that tomorrow or the following day at the latest. It went too far, too fast last week.
All these percentage donât have much meaning because they have nothing to do with traders performance. Letâs say one trader is making 10% per month risking 1% of his equity per each trade, while second trader is also making making 10% per month but is risking 5% of his equity per each trade. Obviously the first traderâs performance is superior compared to the second trader, plus he is taking on less risk and his drawdowns should be smaller resulting in a smoother equity curve. Therefore your question is relatively meaningless. There are other better ways to measure traderâs performance than you propose.
You can get option education if youâre trading stocks to limit risk. But options are multi dimensional, which can be a bonus or a pain in the butt, so youâd need to adjust your trading strategies.
this is from my personal experience...I had a very good method taught to me that worked well for about a year and a half then it was not profitable(method 1). In the mean time, I had developed my own method which was completely different (Method 2) and reasonably consistent, so I was able to use it to trade profitably. Over time, method 1 became profitable again so i traded it exclusively. I worked on a third system similar to Method 2 which I use now and really love it. Over the last two years (bear market) the first method has not been profitable, but I really need to be prepared to utilize it again if its profitability returns.
so my answer to you is that only time will tell. I, personally, will always look at different ways to make money because I have had two methods stop working. I am going to assume this third method will stopping working in the next environment. I don't believe anyone conquers the market not even warren buffet.
hopes this helps
Thank you. Thats good solid advice. It brings up an interesting concept that I haven't seen explored here much through my reading. A system *SHOULD* change over time because one trading environment can be different than another. So, for my method, I'm using a moving averages like some would use trendlines (and a few other spices), but I can see that I need to change the time period of the moving average every once in a while. I also use actual trendlines, which I've found can lose their meaning if you go back too far in time. So for me personally, I get more use out of using a top trend line that connects only the last 3 peaks because if you "reach further back", you're bringing in more and more stale data. I think whatever was happening more than a month ago is ancient history not worth looking at for charting, but should be used only for getting perspective.
I'm trying to learn all I can and I've spent a lot of time looking at exactly what period of time I should use on my M.A., and I came up with two different ones that are optimal now, but I will have to keep adjusting it over time. I saw that when I tried to backtest it with data from different eras. I'd think that automated trading methods would work better if they were periodically "tuned" also.
I guess thats my rambling point...I haven't read that much about method "tuning" but it does seem pretty important since trading environments change. I think that if your trading parameters (method) is constantly evolving, then you won't find that one day it stops working, but rather, it will slowly morph into something else entirely that still works (over time). Right? Sorta like Darwinian evolution to avoid extinction.
SM
http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Shadowlands/4504/sounds/frsnit.wav
Its gonna turn around again and go up today or tomorrow quite nicely.
You're welcome. Hey, its just luck.
Not to rain on anyone's parade, but the market recently has been a trader's paradise. Back in the early part of the year, it was hard to hold anything beyond a day. Don't ever think you have it figured out, it's a life long learning experience. Trade bigger when your hot, trader smaller or get out when your not. When this market starts chopping again (usually around Federal intervention/Treasury/Fed), no technical analysis works well because even the smart money stops and turns on a dime. This has been a very challenging market this year. However, 10% monthly is a decent percentage, but if you trade for a living, account size matters. Under $100k makes trading very difficult ( as far as earning a living). Good luck.