Serious Job Losses....



the sooner the civilized world is no longer held hostage by one arrogant dictator, the sooner the price of oil will decline to reflect that actual abundance in supply and diminished demand that are at play in the marketplace.

[/QUOTE]


Are we talking about the same dictator that lives in Washington named G.W.?
 
Quote from TGregg:

TheCaracal:

Oops, I misunderstood your post. You were speaking of raw numbers, while I was thinking in terms of precentages. To compare the raw numbers instead of percentages is to mislead.

Here's an example. Count up all the people living in New York who have an income of $50k or mor, then compare to the number in the 1930s with that income level (absolute now, no indexing to inflation or GDP or any of that). I suspect one would see an increase of several hundred-thousand (if not millions) fold, certainly it would be amazingly higher. Think of the way cool headline the press could write with that. :D

Anyway, the economy is in *far* better shape that in the Great Depression.
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Agree with your assessment to an extent..but do you live in or around NYC? I know several people both unemployed and barely employed for now..who have taken 50% paycuts just too stay on in their current jobs..including a former well paid Nasdaq MM at CSFB.

In addition, if you are ever in the city, check out the local rest/bar scene...empty...Wall St area; anecdotal accounts suggest that people are buying their hooch and taking it home to drink, and restruants are closing at a rapid pace due to an inabilty to stay alive in post 9/11 environment.

I worked 50 yards from the WTC, it's a very depressing place right now down there. Still.

It "may" not be as bad as the Depression, but it's certainly worse than the "soft-spot" terminology the Fed uses in daily TV apearances.

Best to you,
David

PS Hope I was partially coherent in my last response to u last nite, as poured a 5th! Makers and then fell asleep, after a sip!

Enjoy your weekend
 
this is not a depression scenario.

Both the Fed and the government will ultimately succeed in creating inflation even though all they have done so far is prevent deflation, but thank god for that.
 
Just got back from a trip to the mainland (San Diego area) where I saw a lot of construction/remodeling activity fueled by cheap mortgage money....I could see a division taking place about the war...I got a sense that people were in denial...

Back here at home, there is a house scheduled for auction this month - tax value of $385K and a first of $530K - ouch!!! Can't be good for the neighborhood... a perfect example of what can happen, but is anyone listening??? :eek:
 
Quote from sunnie:

Just got back from a trip to the mainland (San Diego area) where I saw a lot of construction/remodeling activity fueled by cheap mortgage money....I could see a division taking place about the war...I got a sense that people were in denial...

Back here at home, there is a house scheduled for auction this month - tax value of $385K and a first of $530K - ouch!!! Can't be good for the neighborhood... a perfect example of what can happen, but is anyone listening??? :eek:
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wow, I am.
 
It's not just the U.S. economy that is in trouble, Europe's and Japan's are even in worse shape... War clouds are gathering on the horizon... The Fed has lost control over the monetary policy.... The historic is repeating itself, and most people are still in denial piling on debt as if though there were no tomorrow....
 
Quote from dis:

It's not just the U.S. economy that is in trouble, Europe's and Japan's are even in worse shape... War clouds are gathering on the horizon... The Fed has lost control over the monetary policy.... The historic is repeating itself, and most people are still in denial piling on debt as if though there were no tomorrow....
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how has the fed 'lost control over monetary policy?' Do you mean that the stock market doesn't automatically go into the stratosphere anytime there's a rate cut?

people are cutting their risk exposure. It's prudent when there is an event pending that presents open-ended risk.
 
Quote from lescor:

You know, you could do a lot worse than reading the work of Todd Harrison and Bill Flekenstien. They've been swimming against the stream all along and have been dead right. And the future that they are forcasting for stock prices is very bleak compared to current levels.
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I'm not sure if you are responding to my post, but I can assure you that I definately expect the market to continue downwards for years, even if the economy puts along like it is currently. I'm merely saying the economy is not a complete and utter failure right now.

Maybe by fall, heck maybe even by summer. But not right now.
 
Quote from TheCaracal:


Just remember, 6 years ago, 2 Japanese guys were having this same conversation over cocktails, at Nikkei 18K, well 20 yr lows have been printed since then!

And no one is even comtemplating a 4th down year; the complacency is frightening.

Best,
David
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Indeed. We are only in the third trading month of what will be a very long trading year. With the current levels of the Dow, you would really have to place a technical guess that we should retest, if not, break the low of last year. I can not see this current phase as a rock solid bottom for the future. The next earnings season will truly be interesting.......................

I think if the consumer component of the economy goes, it could really be an ugly quarter. If you think about it, the last two years have been identical in trend. We tread water after a pullback from the January run. We get a decent leg down in late spring, followed by a very decent tradeable summer. The late summer early fall puts in the low for the year and than starting in mid October its off to the races until early December..............
 
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