Sergio's Trading Strategies & Market Predictions

Over the long term it should all look like this:

GDX LT distribution.PNG
 
Sergio123 said:
I think I like the 9/29 on NUGT:
Puts: $42/$27 Vertical
Call: $31/$35/$42 Butterfly

Take it off around $40.
More...


The fly looks good as you're in the BWB but it's not really impacting upside as it's a couple bucks from neutrality and only $40 risk down. You're short the put vert? I would go long a call vert instead of shorting the put vert. No need tot ake assignment risk in the puts when you can trade the other side of the box (bull cs).

If that's the trade... you're essentially in a RR again with a BE of 32.
 
I am not super bullish on Gold Miners. Just something to trade in the long direction while the market is in a correction.

I modeled GDX with a 1st Order ARIMA and ran a forecast through September this is what it projects:
GDX Forecast.PNG
 
Logging a journal entry for GDX YTD Parameters and a probability matrix. The far left column is the number of standard deviations:
GDX YTD.PNG



GDX Long-Term Baseline:
GDX LT param.PNG
 
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I am going to call it the end of this leg of the correction.
The actuals were:
SPY bottomed to 433 on 8/18.
IWM bottomed to 181.86 on 8/18.
QQQ bottomed to 354.71 on 8/18.

Trying to nail the exact date and price is a tough game.

My next prediction is a rally on NVDA then a hangover and hawkish tone at Jackson Hole for the next leg of the correction through September.


I will be presenting more data and trades later.
 
I added some metrics at intervals to show the evolution of the daily return distribution of GDX.
What I can see is that the total return, mean, and skewness is trending in the positive direction. While the kurtosis (volatility) is trending down.

This is an interesting asset to trade because there are time intervals in which it delivers positive skewness with negative returns. That is because it delivers some big green candle tails during a downtrend.

There are definitely some big red candle days coming, but the whole thing needs to shift over to the right.

GDX Distribution evolution.PNG
 
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