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September Trading Journals
- Thread starter Hitman
- Start date
Long: Gold, Oil, Defense, Construction
Short: Airline, Insurance
Here is the list of every single stock in those sectors, NYSE, $15 or higher, 100K daily volume or more. Sector trading coupled with news catalyst has been one of my bread and butter set-up's. The key is to avoid first tier's that will inevitably gap-up/down, and go for second / third tier's, not only they may not gap much, you will have a chance to get out when something goes wrong. The stronger the news, the lower the tier you should go, because they lag, and they have easier tape, and most importantly they will behave a lot less violently on unexpected reversals, like a surprise rate cut, you may actually be able to flip your positions in those stocks with little slippage when something like that happens.
I will avoid all future sensitive stocks and focus on what I have here. I will be at the office VERY early on Monday, this is the most important game of the month, a tons of potential for serious numbers, the only question is whether it will be in the black or in the red. I will be very very quick to get out of positions whether it is profit taking or loss cutting. Discipline of steel is required to get out when you are wrong. At first add no more than one position per sector, pyramid and add more as soon as the idea is confirmed, whether by a big gap down on the sector index or a big offer showing up . . .
Forget fundamentals, it doesn't matter if the company doesn't insure anyone even remoted related to New York, as long as it is in the insurance group it is going down with perception alone. Perception, that's the entire game here, if everyone expects something, it will happen, doesn't mean you can profit from it, for there can be some massive squeezes/reversals before it actually happens, but it WILL happen . . . I will be looking for the short side first with gold as a hedge, the longs I will be very very cautious about as the overall downtrend may sink even the best sectors . . .
Please feel free to add your two cents here. I don't want to hear anything about morale. We are still alive, we are traders, when you step onto the floor, be a professional, be merciless, be a trader, don't be a patriot, there are many many ways to contribute to this great country, stepping in front of a freight train is not one of them. As long as you are still breathing, life goes on, stop being fragile, stop being indecisive, stop living in the shadows of the past, you are still alive, and you must do what you always have done before, the sooner you realize this, the better.
Next week provides a huge opportunity for traders, take advantage of it, for there may not be many opportunities after next week if a depression indeed hits our country. All of my monthly goal's, quarterly goal's are thrown out of the window, in a time like this, we can only take it a game at a time . . . no more than that . . . Load up the bullets, fire at will, anything that doesn't gap down and you see an offer, bullet it . . . Play every game the way you play every other game, because that's the only way to play the game . . . What's done is done, as long as you are alive, you have to take advantage of each and every opportunity, that's the way world works.
I am going to read a quick summary on each and every single company on this list and break the list down further. I will have the final list tommorrow after I filter out the trashes . . . We have no control over when we are going to die, but we do have control over what we are going to do when we are alive . . . DO NOT MIX EMOTION WITH TRADING, IF YOUR EMOTION IS NOT READY, STAY AWAY!
The Long List:
Gold: ABX, AU, BVN, NEM
Defense: BA, GD, GR, LMT, NOC, RTN, ATK, COL, ERJ, NNS, TGI
Oil/Gas Drillers: AXN, DO, ESV, GLM, HP, NE, RDC, RIG, SDC
Oil/Gas Refining: AHC, ASH, FTO, MRO, MUR, P, PBR, SUN, TOS, UCL, UDS, VLO
Oil/Gas Equipment: GEG, HAL, HC, LSS, PDS, SII, SLB, VRC, WFT
Oil/Gas Pipeline: EPG, KMP, NBP, WGR, WMB
Integrated: AOG, APA, APC, BR, CEO, COG, DYN, EOG, EVG, FST, KMG, LD, MND, NBL, NFX, OEI, OXY, PPP, PXD, SFY, SGY, SKE, TLM, VPI, XTO, BP, CHV, ENE, RD, REP, SC, TOT, TX, XOM
Heavy Construction: GVA, JEC, MEE, EME, CX, LAF
Home Construction: BZH, CTX, DHI, KBH, LEN, MDC, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL, FLR
Building Materials: ASD, DHR, DTL, MLM, SHW, VAL, VMC, YRK
The Short List:
Major Airline: AMR, CAL, DAL, UAL
Regional Airline: ALK, LUV
Life Insurance: AEG, AMH, AXA, ING, JHF, JP, LNC, MFC, MNY, NFS, PL, SLC
Accident & Health Insurance: AFL, AOC, RE, TMK, UNM
Property & Casualty Insurance: ACE, AFC, AFG, AIG, ALL, CB, CNA, HCC, HIG, LTR, ORH, PGR, PRE, SPC, UCI, XL
Surety & Title Insurance: ABK, FAF, FNF, LFG, MBI, MTG, ORI, PMI, RDN
Insurance Brokers: AJG, MET, MMC, WSH
Short: Airline, Insurance
Here is the list of every single stock in those sectors, NYSE, $15 or higher, 100K daily volume or more. Sector trading coupled with news catalyst has been one of my bread and butter set-up's. The key is to avoid first tier's that will inevitably gap-up/down, and go for second / third tier's, not only they may not gap much, you will have a chance to get out when something goes wrong. The stronger the news, the lower the tier you should go, because they lag, and they have easier tape, and most importantly they will behave a lot less violently on unexpected reversals, like a surprise rate cut, you may actually be able to flip your positions in those stocks with little slippage when something like that happens.
I will avoid all future sensitive stocks and focus on what I have here. I will be at the office VERY early on Monday, this is the most important game of the month, a tons of potential for serious numbers, the only question is whether it will be in the black or in the red. I will be very very quick to get out of positions whether it is profit taking or loss cutting. Discipline of steel is required to get out when you are wrong. At first add no more than one position per sector, pyramid and add more as soon as the idea is confirmed, whether by a big gap down on the sector index or a big offer showing up . . .
Forget fundamentals, it doesn't matter if the company doesn't insure anyone even remoted related to New York, as long as it is in the insurance group it is going down with perception alone. Perception, that's the entire game here, if everyone expects something, it will happen, doesn't mean you can profit from it, for there can be some massive squeezes/reversals before it actually happens, but it WILL happen . . . I will be looking for the short side first with gold as a hedge, the longs I will be very very cautious about as the overall downtrend may sink even the best sectors . . .
Please feel free to add your two cents here. I don't want to hear anything about morale. We are still alive, we are traders, when you step onto the floor, be a professional, be merciless, be a trader, don't be a patriot, there are many many ways to contribute to this great country, stepping in front of a freight train is not one of them. As long as you are still breathing, life goes on, stop being fragile, stop being indecisive, stop living in the shadows of the past, you are still alive, and you must do what you always have done before, the sooner you realize this, the better.
Next week provides a huge opportunity for traders, take advantage of it, for there may not be many opportunities after next week if a depression indeed hits our country. All of my monthly goal's, quarterly goal's are thrown out of the window, in a time like this, we can only take it a game at a time . . . no more than that . . . Load up the bullets, fire at will, anything that doesn't gap down and you see an offer, bullet it . . . Play every game the way you play every other game, because that's the only way to play the game . . . What's done is done, as long as you are alive, you have to take advantage of each and every opportunity, that's the way world works.
I am going to read a quick summary on each and every single company on this list and break the list down further. I will have the final list tommorrow after I filter out the trashes . . . We have no control over when we are going to die, but we do have control over what we are going to do when we are alive . . . DO NOT MIX EMOTION WITH TRADING, IF YOUR EMOTION IS NOT READY, STAY AWAY!
The Long List:
Gold: ABX, AU, BVN, NEM
Defense: BA, GD, GR, LMT, NOC, RTN, ATK, COL, ERJ, NNS, TGI
Oil/Gas Drillers: AXN, DO, ESV, GLM, HP, NE, RDC, RIG, SDC
Oil/Gas Refining: AHC, ASH, FTO, MRO, MUR, P, PBR, SUN, TOS, UCL, UDS, VLO
Oil/Gas Equipment: GEG, HAL, HC, LSS, PDS, SII, SLB, VRC, WFT
Oil/Gas Pipeline: EPG, KMP, NBP, WGR, WMB
Integrated: AOG, APA, APC, BR, CEO, COG, DYN, EOG, EVG, FST, KMG, LD, MND, NBL, NFX, OEI, OXY, PPP, PXD, SFY, SGY, SKE, TLM, VPI, XTO, BP, CHV, ENE, RD, REP, SC, TOT, TX, XOM
Heavy Construction: GVA, JEC, MEE, EME, CX, LAF
Home Construction: BZH, CTX, DHI, KBH, LEN, MDC, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL, FLR
Building Materials: ASD, DHR, DTL, MLM, SHW, VAL, VMC, YRK
The Short List:
Major Airline: AMR, CAL, DAL, UAL
Regional Airline: ALK, LUV
Life Insurance: AEG, AMH, AXA, ING, JHF, JP, LNC, MFC, MNY, NFS, PL, SLC
Accident & Health Insurance: AFL, AOC, RE, TMK, UNM
Property & Casualty Insurance: ACE, AFC, AFG, AIG, ALL, CB, CNA, HCC, HIG, LTR, ORH, PGR, PRE, SPC, UCI, XL
Surety & Title Insurance: ABK, FAF, FNF, LFG, MBI, MTG, ORI, PMI, RDN
Insurance Brokers: AJG, MET, MMC, WSH
Hitman,
You might want to include cable tv network stocks as well.
You might want to include cable tv network stocks as well.
Crazy Trader:
Yep, I haven't started looking at the damage of telecom networks yet . . .
Roger2:
They can squeeze all they want but at some point there will be a massive move to the downside in those sectors guaranteed unless it gaps down multiple points of course . . .
I only trade NYSE, not to mention I would rather trade any one of those news sectors than say NVDA's or IBM's . . .
Yep, I haven't started looking at the damage of telecom networks yet . . .
Roger2:
They can squeeze all they want but at some point there will be a massive move to the downside in those sectors guaranteed unless it gaps down multiple points of course . . .
I only trade NYSE, not to mention I would rather trade any one of those news sectors than say NVDA's or IBM's . . .
Hit i'm just reading this thread for the first time and I can only say --do not worry-you're on your way to good fortune-I can tell -I met you. Just one thing-You say "it's about developing a winning mentality by putting together consistent profits." No-It's most important that you develop a winning mentality first. And an easy way to do that -is to just choose to. Thats right just choose to -it's your decision-- and whatever you decide sends a message to your brain. And there you are. Good luck- I enjoy these journals
It is all over . . . the smoke and debris cleared on the virtual battle field. Hanging my head in shame, as my weekend plans were thrown out of the window when Fed. announced .50 rate cut, and perhaps even more importantly, when the firm announced that no one on Wall Street will have access to bullets.
Looking at the long list of the non-market related events happened here at the firm, I suppose I can come up with an excuse for a down day today, I certainly had more excuses to be down today than the surprise fed. rate cut back in January, when I also finished the day down.
1) In the morning, we had power outage and backup generator kicked in, we weren't allowed to turn on lights, no more than two monitors per person were turned on. Our power consumption still near the upper limit, and I was kicked out of my comfort zone immediately.
2) Risk Management announced that there will be NO BULLETS on Wall Street today, gotta play fair, gotta short on an uptick. This killed my open game, more below.
3) 10:45, 120 Wall Street had a bomb threat, better safe than sorry, everyone evacuated the building here on 110 Wall Street. Couldn't find any restaurant near Wall Street that is actually open for business, had to suffer some nasty street vendor crap.
4) 2:00, data feed down, thankfully my positions were in the money with stops nice and tight, and thankfully market tanked and I didn't miss a beat.
5) 2:30, for whatever the reason, Risk Management forced everyone out of their short positions, when the market appeared it will do nothing but go down. After a horrific open, you can guess how happy I was to finally go on a streak, nope, I covered shorts and watched market tank like an idiot. I am very sure SEC did something about this, our firm was encouraging natural shorts sans bullet in the morning. I asked what hell was going on and they said it is a senior management decision, something fishy behind the scenes and I would love to find out what happened.
There is just one difference between today and the last time Fed. cut the rate, I was a newbie back then, I didn't know what hell I was doing, and today, I knew I was capable of a big game. The similarity, bottom guy on the top 30 list was 7K, top guy was 101K . . . 82% of the people finished the day up, only one guy I know finished the day down . . .
Embarrassing, yet it feels good to have a job right now, to even have a chance to sit here and make money, in fact, it feels good to be alive, because I get to play another game tommorrow . . . Can't complain.
8 of 15 shooting on 11300 shares, -43 before commissions, -298 after.
Pre-Market: News? What news? We all knew what will happen . . .
9:30: Gold stocks gapped up a lot, airlines all gapped down many many points, that's two sectors out of my play book right away. A lethal trap in energies as I lost 1 point in KMG first trade of the game going long. Ouch, fortunately I was about to get out of VRC for a quarter profit before the index completely reversed. Not so lucky in KMI as I lost 15 cents.
10:00: Oh man, I tried many many shorts in IUX stocks that didn't gap down, but none of them will fill me at my limit prices. Now they started to fill me I should have seen this coming. You can not play this kind of sector moves without bullets off the open. Shorted FAF and made 15 cents, shorted FNF and lost 15 cents. Fortunately I knew the market had to bounce at some point and I took NSM at 28.61, and watched it go up another point in horror when I accidentally sold it for a 40 cents move when I tried to put a stop in. I haven't played in a while, I am rusty, maybe I am still trying to shake off the aftermath, but no excuses.
10:30: Energy rally, took HP, GLM, NOI, I thought OSX will do what I thought it will do off the open, oil rally! and I lost a nickel in HP, made a nickel in GLM but lost 30 cents in NOI. Very very bad decisions there, never jump into a sector with mass positions until your first batch of positions are in the money. Took a bounce on FMC for a dime profit as the market peaked out and faded away. Shorted LSI and covered for 20 cents loss when the bomb threat happened.
1:30: Shorted LSI again at 16.5, great entry point and shorted PGR at 122.41, I was in the money by a quarter on LSI and 60 cents in PGR, and Risk told me to cover the shorts. Watched LSI go down another quarter and PGR 1.5 point. I am not saying I would have packed those gains had I stayed in them, but it would have made a difference.
3:47: Bottomfished LSI for a dime, it hit 40 cents higher but quickly came back in. Took IRF on short covering pop for 15 cents, again could have took another 15 cents but time ran out and I didn't want to have an overnight . . .
I am not thinking about making size anymore, I am down $550 for the month, granted a lot of things happened that were not under my control, but come to think of it, after this week, when the emotional impact of WTC fades away, this market may become a ghost town and it may make summer 2001 feel like the good old size day's. I have to keep my head up, last Tuesday was the second most painful day in my life, but I also have to feel lucky to be alive, to have a job.
Quite honestly, survive is the word here. Everyone in the WTC area are officially unemployeed, companies will lay off another batch because of the lost branches, there will be at least 50000 people looking for a new job here in New York. I saw a man dressed in a silk shirt who looked like a top management guy working as a volunteer on Wall Street. This is not the time to even think about failure, it is not the time to think about the daily goal's, the monthly goal's, the quarterly goal's, the yearly goal's either.
The only thing on my mind right now, to the end of the year, is one game at a time, survival. Try to win as many games as I can, and let go of my expectations. Maybe we will rally hard this week and send us straight into a new bull market, but I don't think so. If Nasdaq hovers around 1000-1200 range and Dow 6000-7000 range for a year, I don't know if day trading will still be a viable profession.
Unemployement rate will go up for sure, and day trading is not very useful on a resume. It is ok, I chose the path, and I will walk it until I see a plane crashing into my face, but
The way life is so unpredictable makes it fun, you never know what will happen next. I still believe I will become a top trader no matter what, but I am ready for what could be a long, tough year ahead . . . A true wash out of the weak, and survival of the fittest.
Will I be the hunter or the prey? Time will tell . . .
Looking at the long list of the non-market related events happened here at the firm, I suppose I can come up with an excuse for a down day today, I certainly had more excuses to be down today than the surprise fed. rate cut back in January, when I also finished the day down.
1) In the morning, we had power outage and backup generator kicked in, we weren't allowed to turn on lights, no more than two monitors per person were turned on. Our power consumption still near the upper limit, and I was kicked out of my comfort zone immediately.
2) Risk Management announced that there will be NO BULLETS on Wall Street today, gotta play fair, gotta short on an uptick. This killed my open game, more below.
3) 10:45, 120 Wall Street had a bomb threat, better safe than sorry, everyone evacuated the building here on 110 Wall Street. Couldn't find any restaurant near Wall Street that is actually open for business, had to suffer some nasty street vendor crap.
4) 2:00, data feed down, thankfully my positions were in the money with stops nice and tight, and thankfully market tanked and I didn't miss a beat.
5) 2:30, for whatever the reason, Risk Management forced everyone out of their short positions, when the market appeared it will do nothing but go down. After a horrific open, you can guess how happy I was to finally go on a streak, nope, I covered shorts and watched market tank like an idiot. I am very sure SEC did something about this, our firm was encouraging natural shorts sans bullet in the morning. I asked what hell was going on and they said it is a senior management decision, something fishy behind the scenes and I would love to find out what happened.
There is just one difference between today and the last time Fed. cut the rate, I was a newbie back then, I didn't know what hell I was doing, and today, I knew I was capable of a big game. The similarity, bottom guy on the top 30 list was 7K, top guy was 101K . . . 82% of the people finished the day up, only one guy I know finished the day down . . .
Embarrassing, yet it feels good to have a job right now, to even have a chance to sit here and make money, in fact, it feels good to be alive, because I get to play another game tommorrow . . . Can't complain.
8 of 15 shooting on 11300 shares, -43 before commissions, -298 after.
Pre-Market: News? What news? We all knew what will happen . . .
9:30: Gold stocks gapped up a lot, airlines all gapped down many many points, that's two sectors out of my play book right away. A lethal trap in energies as I lost 1 point in KMG first trade of the game going long. Ouch, fortunately I was about to get out of VRC for a quarter profit before the index completely reversed. Not so lucky in KMI as I lost 15 cents.
10:00: Oh man, I tried many many shorts in IUX stocks that didn't gap down, but none of them will fill me at my limit prices. Now they started to fill me I should have seen this coming. You can not play this kind of sector moves without bullets off the open. Shorted FAF and made 15 cents, shorted FNF and lost 15 cents. Fortunately I knew the market had to bounce at some point and I took NSM at 28.61, and watched it go up another point in horror when I accidentally sold it for a 40 cents move when I tried to put a stop in. I haven't played in a while, I am rusty, maybe I am still trying to shake off the aftermath, but no excuses.
10:30: Energy rally, took HP, GLM, NOI, I thought OSX will do what I thought it will do off the open, oil rally! and I lost a nickel in HP, made a nickel in GLM but lost 30 cents in NOI. Very very bad decisions there, never jump into a sector with mass positions until your first batch of positions are in the money. Took a bounce on FMC for a dime profit as the market peaked out and faded away. Shorted LSI and covered for 20 cents loss when the bomb threat happened.
1:30: Shorted LSI again at 16.5, great entry point and shorted PGR at 122.41, I was in the money by a quarter on LSI and 60 cents in PGR, and Risk told me to cover the shorts. Watched LSI go down another quarter and PGR 1.5 point. I am not saying I would have packed those gains had I stayed in them, but it would have made a difference.
3:47: Bottomfished LSI for a dime, it hit 40 cents higher but quickly came back in. Took IRF on short covering pop for 15 cents, again could have took another 15 cents but time ran out and I didn't want to have an overnight . . .
I am not thinking about making size anymore, I am down $550 for the month, granted a lot of things happened that were not under my control, but come to think of it, after this week, when the emotional impact of WTC fades away, this market may become a ghost town and it may make summer 2001 feel like the good old size day's. I have to keep my head up, last Tuesday was the second most painful day in my life, but I also have to feel lucky to be alive, to have a job.
Quite honestly, survive is the word here. Everyone in the WTC area are officially unemployeed, companies will lay off another batch because of the lost branches, there will be at least 50000 people looking for a new job here in New York. I saw a man dressed in a silk shirt who looked like a top management guy working as a volunteer on Wall Street. This is not the time to even think about failure, it is not the time to think about the daily goal's, the monthly goal's, the quarterly goal's, the yearly goal's either.
The only thing on my mind right now, to the end of the year, is one game at a time, survival. Try to win as many games as I can, and let go of my expectations. Maybe we will rally hard this week and send us straight into a new bull market, but I don't think so. If Nasdaq hovers around 1000-1200 range and Dow 6000-7000 range for a year, I don't know if day trading will still be a viable profession.
Unemployement rate will go up for sure, and day trading is not very useful on a resume. It is ok, I chose the path, and I will walk it until I see a plane crashing into my face, but
The way life is so unpredictable makes it fun, you never know what will happen next. I still believe I will become a top trader no matter what, but I am ready for what could be a long, tough year ahead . . . A true wash out of the weak, and survival of the fittest.
Will I be the hunter or the prey? Time will tell . . .
hitman,
Airlines gapped down big but most of it actually went up after that.
CAL, U, AWA, ERJ, AMR, DAL, all move up when it open. It will be suicidal to short these airlines thinking that it will drop further.
Good short are stock that gapped up big, like INVN, EASI,
MRCY (move up 10 points in minutes), NOC, LLL.
The only airlines i play are CAL and AWA. Perfect setup to go long when it open.
Airlines gapped down big but most of it actually went up after that.
CAL, U, AWA, ERJ, AMR, DAL, all move up when it open. It will be suicidal to short these airlines thinking that it will drop further.
Good short are stock that gapped up big, like INVN, EASI,
MRCY (move up 10 points in minutes), NOC, LLL.
The only airlines i play are CAL and AWA. Perfect setup to go long when it open.
Crazy Trader:
I understand the part about longing something that has been on a steady downtrend and a big gap down, but I wonder exactly what is an ideal set-up. It just seems to me a lot of those are more or less gambling as the stock can really go either way after it gaps down . . . Can you explain the subtle details behind this set-up?
If I had bullets I would have shorted quite a few IUX stocks successfully off the open, oh well.
I understand the part about longing something that has been on a steady downtrend and a big gap down, but I wonder exactly what is an ideal set-up. It just seems to me a lot of those are more or less gambling as the stock can really go either way after it gaps down . . . Can you explain the subtle details behind this set-up?
If I had bullets I would have shorted quite a few IUX stocks successfully off the open, oh well.