SEPR time spread
- Thread starter riskarb
- Start date
No way approval was priced in. In fact there were put buyers saying that non-approval could be a death knell for SEPR. This is a company that in twenty years of existence is yet to post a quarterly profit. For sure the stock will see at least $32 Monday though I doubt Estorra is a home run.
Stock up 34% pre-market. It's up over 10 pts and climbing. I guess that news was not priced into the stock. Congrats to all those that are long this baby. Should be really interesting to see if the stock keeps running after the open like DNA did.
Long, two points from pre-market to morning 38.30 - 40.26
Congrats to the options players on this one. Let us know how the position works out as you cash in. I am very happy to see options plays discussed here, thank you.
Short players might be first in line at the pharmacy for Estorra.
Congrats to the options players on this one. Let us know how the position works out as you cash in. I am very happy to see options plays discussed here, thank you.
Short players might be first in line at the pharmacy for Estorra.
april 35 calls... + 6
thanks maverick74 for starting this thread.... you're a class act in sharing ideas. Never heard of this stock until reading your comments. Rarely take tips or sugggestions but figured this was worth shot.
owe u one mate!!
And IMHO Baron ought to be knighted for starting ET... so many good ideas floating around on this website! Can't understand those who bit*h and moan about ET.
Ice
Quote from iceman1:
april 35 calls... + 6
thanks maverick74 for starting this thread.... you're a class act in sharing ideas. Never heard of this stock until reading your comments. Rarely take tips or sugggestions but figured this was worth shot.
owe u one mate!!
And IMHO Baron ought to be Knighted for starting ET... so many good ideas floating around on this website! Can't understand those who bit*h and moan about ET.
Ice
Well, I didn't start the thread so you'll have to give credit to Riskarb for that. I will take credit for my posts though. LOL.
So far this trade is working out very nicely for me. I'm glad to hear that you made some coin on this. Good for you.
sorry RiskArb... :eek: :eek:
my earlier comments to Maverick74 apply equally to you since you have contributed an awful lot to the options forum as well... and started this thread.
Thanks.... !
Glad the trade is working out M74... what happpens now?!! Im watching for a decent PB for re-entry... likely not today.
ICe
"SNY is the company that makes Ambien. They currently dominate the space. It is possible that SEPR's Estorra drug could take 20% of that business away from them. There is also a stock NBIX, that is coming out with a sleep aid drug but not for a while. And PFE is a very indirect way, they have a marketing agreement with NBIX and will share in 50% of the revenues from their sleep aid drug. Basically, SNY has the most to lose if SEPR and NBIX are successful."
Mav, nice call, you seem like you have a pretty good understaning of SEPR. Was curious what you think of this company over the longer-term, (whether or not you trade that time frame). Are people paying up for this stock today (if it's true that in 20 quarters SEPR has never showed net income), or is this just the beginning for this company. Do you know if they have anything else in the pipeline, that is going to be coming up for review? Thanks
Mav, nice call, you seem like you have a pretty good understaning of SEPR. Was curious what you think of this company over the longer-term, (whether or not you trade that time frame). Are people paying up for this stock today (if it's true that in 20 quarters SEPR has never showed net income), or is this just the beginning for this company. Do you know if they have anything else in the pipeline, that is going to be coming up for review? Thanks
Actually my knowledge of the company is fairly limited. Yes, they do have another drug in the pipeline that they hope to get FDA approval for later in the year. I am not a long term trader and I don't have a long term forecast for this stock. If I had to take a guess, I think this stock could have some nice steady upside just because the upside potential for Estorra is huge. But I am really not the guy to ask for long term price forecasts.
A word of caution about SEPR. They did not get FDA approval. What they got was a conditional approvable letter which means that it likely will be approved. Once they get the full approval it's possible that the stock could see another pop. I think a lot of the upside today was short covering. I know I mentioned this before with 10% of the float being short. I think you might also see more people coming in to short this gap so this stock might have another upside leg in it to get them out. I hope this helps.
My main reasoning for doing this trade was the 2 to 1 vol skew. The front month options came in about 80 pts today from their highs. I didn't really take the trade for any speculative purposes.