SEPR time spread

Quote from palawan:

And it's MUCH appreciated.

Thanks to everyone for sharing their knowledge. It's great to learn from everyone's knowledge and experiences. And best of all, it's free :cool:

Just got my "Option Volatility & Pricing" by Natenberg and "Pit Bull" by Buzzy Schwartz in the mail today. I can hardly wait for the weekend to dig into them. I've already started with "Pit Bull" and it's a great book, so far.

Best of Luck to everyone!
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Two of the best books available but very different. It'll take a bit longer than the weekend to get through Natenberg.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I sold some more March. Ratio is now 1 x 2. Might sell some more tomorrow.
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I'm away from home base or I would have to be getting into this trade some way. This is like an NFL playoff game. We get a couple of weeks of buildup and anticipation, even soem trashtalking, then the fireworks go off and the game starts. You gotta love it.

Probably not the best mental framework for trading, but sometimes you need that rush.
 
What are the secondary stocks that should rise/fall on SEPR's FDA news? (Imclone had BMY, ABGX, OSIP, etc.)

Thanks for the help.
 
Quote from VOLUME:

What are the secondary stocks that should rise/fall on SEPR's FDA news? (Imclone had BMY, ABGX, OSIP, etc.)

Thanks for the help.
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SNY is the company that makes Ambien. They currently dominate the space. It is possible that SEPR's Estorra drug could take 20% of that business away from them. There is also a stock NBIX, that is coming out with a sleep aid drug but not for a while. And PFE is a very indirect way, they have a marketing agreement with NBIX and will share in 50% of the revenues from their sleep aid drug. Basically, SNY has the most to lose if SEPR and NBIX are successful.
 
Quote from iceman1:

hey W...

thanks for the info...

do you have any pos. in SEPR?

Anyone venture a guess on how high this stock might trade on Monday... or might it sell off after possible gap higher? Not familiar with the company but bought a few calls on Friday near close...

ICe
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My guess is 32 to 35. Of course that is right were my sweet spot is. I thought DNA would get faded after their approval, but that stock just kept on going, so who knows. It's anybody's guess. I sure feel a lot better now though getting that approval letter. Or should I say approvable letter. There will be a conference call at 8:30 eastern time on Monday. That call will move the stock more then this letter from the FDA.
 
The merits of buying Sepracor were debated on the Fox News Channel program Cashin' In. Adam Lashinsky thought it would pop big next week. Jonas Max Ferris thought the approval was already priced in.
 
Quote from rrisch:

The merits of buying Sepracor were debated on the Fox News Channel program Cashin' In. Adam Lashinsky thought it would pop big next week. Jonas Max Ferris thought the approval was already priced in.
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I missed that this morning. Here is why I don't think it was priced in. There are 11 analyst ratings on this stock right now. Two of them are sells and one is even a strong sell which you never see. Eight of the eleven ratings are either hold, sell, or strong sell. A lot of those analysts are going to come out monday and upgrade this stock at least to buy.

They also are going to have to revise their future earnings est. for this stock since the revenues from this drug have not been factored into their forecasts. So my guess is we will see at least three or four upgrades and a lot of upward earnings revisions.

But like I said before, the CC is going to be very telling. There is no way with the shotty history of this company that anybody including myself, could say this approval was priced in. But we'll find out on Monday. I could be wrong, I often am.
 
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