Quote from achilles28:
There's not much Government should do except end moral hazard and let free markets work.
Small business are getting screwed by small banks who won't lend because huge, insolvent banks that should have gone under, haven't, and that uncertainty around diffused counter-party risk has had a chilling effect on national credit.
Until the shit banks go under, all banks - regardless of size - will not lend.
There's also a big problem of the Fed loaning to banks under the rate/12-month yeild, and banks just loan to Government or Fed to recapitalize. This is just more Government largess to insolvent banks and should be dealt with responsibly = Jack rates by 300 basis points across the board. That would clear everything out. Of course, we'd also go into a Depression. But that's coming regardless. See, we're already done. Everything is just conjecture, at this point. All those mom and pops geared up to the tits praying for recovery just over the horizon, well, they're not gonna make it. Maybe we'll get a brief 18 month reprieve if Bernacke monetizes. Then, it'll get ugly.
Achilles, thank you for your response to my post.
I agree with your assessment - especially the ugly part. Here is another reason why employment is not going to happen any time soon â¦.
Mar 08, 2010 12:55pm EST Yahoo Tech Ticker interview with Richard Suttmeier
Forget the unemployment rate, durable goods orders or the Baltic Freight Index. Veteran market watcher Richard Suttmeier says the FDIC quarterly banking profile is "the single most important leading indicator for the U.S. economy."
Released about 55 days after the end of each quarter, the FDIC report offers a bird's eye view of lending activity in America, especially among smaller Main Street lenders and small businesses. "It's a balance sheet of our economy," says Suttmeier, chief market strategist at Niagara International Capital and ValueEngine.com.
Based on the latest quarterly profile, for fourth-quarter 2009, the state of the banking system is "not as good as Wall Street is saying. Particularly when you get beyond the 'too big to fail' banks," Suttmeier tells Aaron in the accompanying clip.
Bad Banks Can't Lend As was widely reported, the most recent report showed the number of "problem" banks rose 27% in 2009 to 702 -- the highest level since 1993.
Less widely discussed is Suttmeier's concern that more than half of the nation's roughly 8,000 banks "can't lend anymore" because of rising levels of bad loans on their books. The problems are especially acute in construction & development and commercial real estate loans, he says, citing the FDIC quarterly report. Because so many of these loans are delinquent, banks don't have the capital coming in to lend out and thus are content to mostly sit on deposits, he explains.
"We can't sustain positive GDP growth without the construction market turning around [and] banks getting rid of these bad loans so that they can lend again," Suttmeier says. "When you have light demand for loans and loans on the books deteriorating while the economy's going up -- something's not right."