Semiconductor (SOX) Direction

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Investorsources

I own the SMH (Semiconductor Holdrs Trust) at an average cost of 34.50 and wrote a 35.00 covered call for 0.90, expiry Nov 18th. I also own long term puts. A bit of a complicated strategy to discuss in this one post, however. The strategy has been kind to me and very risk averse, but yielded a decent return. If i didnt make a couple of stupid mistakes, it could have been better.
But I digress. I wanted to know the opinion of the "experts" on this board as to where they see this thing going.

Where does it look like the SOX is going to bottom out here? i checked the charts on the SMH out and see 32.50 as minor support, 32.00 as major support and 30.00 below that. The 200 day EMA has been breached as has the 200 day SMA. The technical indicators are indicating an oversold environment or does that not matter and we will continue to go lower?

I remember one poster who thought the SOX would see 420? Anyone else?
 
You're short the front month put[synthetically] and long deferred puts. It's a simple long calendar spread.

As for the SOX; I think we're within 10-20 points of the low of the rest of the year.
 
Quote from Investorsources:

I own the SMH (Semiconductor Holdrs Trust) at an average cost of 34.50 and wrote a 35.00 covered call for 0.90, expiry Nov 18th. I also own long term puts. A bit of a complicated strategy to discuss in this one post, however. The strategy has been kind to me and very risk averse, but yielded a decent return. If i didnt make a couple of stupid mistakes, it could have been better.
But I digress. I wanted to know the opinion of the "experts" on this board as to where they see this thing going.

Where does it look like the SOX is going to bottom out here? i checked the charts on the SMH out and see 32.50 as minor support, 32.00 as major support and 30.00 below that. The 200 day EMA has been breached as has the 200 day SMA. The technical indicators are indicating an oversold environment or does that not matter and we will continue to go lower?

I remember one poster who thought the SOX would see 420? Anyone else?
More...

klac reported tonight and the market did not like it. klac tanked 4 points after hours. klac is one of the bigger components. could be rough day tomorrow.
 
Quote from Investorsources:

I own the SMH (Semiconductor Holdrs Trust) at an average cost of 34.50 and wrote a 35.00 covered call for 0.90, expiry Nov 18th. I also own long term puts. A bit of a complicated strategy to discuss in this one post, however. The strategy has been kind to me and very risk averse, but yielded a decent return. If i didnt make a couple of stupid mistakes, it could have been better.
But I digress. I wanted to know the opinion of the "experts" on this board as to where they see this thing going.

Where does it look like the SOX is going to bottom out here? i checked the charts on the SMH out and see 32.50 as minor support, 32.00 as major support and 30.00 below that. The 200 day EMA has been breached as has the 200 day SMA. The technical indicators are indicating an oversold environment or does that not matter and we will continue to go lower?

I remember one poster who thought the SOX would see 420? Anyone else?
More...

420 and 408 before we see any decent pullback. For this thing to actually go up we might have to wait till 2006. This looks like a start of a bear market and I believe the worst is yet to come.
 
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