Selling puts on SVXY

Quote from Josef K:

Dude, if you think that SVXY is going to crash, then go ahead and buy some puts. You said you thought it could go to 20. Do you think there's a good chance of this happening before September expiration? Then go ahead and buy the September 45 puts. They're selling for $2.00, which means that if you're right, you'll make a profit of $23.00, or 1,150%. Seriously, do some analyses and go ahead and take action if you have strong beliefs about what's going to happen. Otherwise, you're just wasting your time with wishy-washy pondering.

I wish I had a crystall ball. I am trying to create a position that would benefit from more than one possible outcome. That's all. Buying put is a lottery ticket and I don't play lotteries.
 
Quote from rocky_raccoon:

I wish I had a crystall ball. I am trying to create a position that would benefit from more than one possible outcome. That's all. Buying put is a lottery ticket and I don't play lotteries.

I would say.. stay small and grind out some mistakes via lessons..
 
To trade svxy, using bull OTM puts spread is much better than selling naked puts. Svxy has a good possibility to drop to 0. I'm not kidding. This is not a just a theoretical thing.
 
Quote from bologeorge:

To trade svxy, using bull OTM puts spread is much better than selling naked puts. Svxy has a good possibility to drop to 0. I'm not kidding. This is not a just a theoretical thing.

Can you come up with a realistic scenario under which SVXY drops to zero?
What VIX futures would look like in that case and what would happen to ZIV, XIV, VXX, and VXZ?
 
Quote from rocky_raccoon:

Can you come up with a realistic scenario under which SVXY drops to zero?
What VIX futures would look like in that case and what would happen to ZIV, XIV, VXX, and VXZ?

do you want someone to build a model for you?
 
Quote from rocky_raccoon:

Can you come up with a realistic scenario under which SVXY drops to zero?

If the institution that underwrites the SVXY goes bankrupt.

I look forward to hearing how you top ticked puts after the SVXY has rallied 10 handles :).
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

If the institution that underwrites the SVXY goes bankrupt.

I look forward to hearing how you top ticked puts after the SVXY has rallied 10 handles :).

The institution is call ProShares. If they go under, SVXY won't be the only victim. Besides, it's ETF and its assets should be passed to the shareholders if the underwriter goe out of business.
That is one scenario but it is not unique for SVXY and very unlikely. Most people who say that it may go down to zero think of some sort of a broad market crash circa 1987 and I'd like see their logic.

BTW, if I take a position I will post a screen shot with a time stamp here :-)
 
Quote from rocky_raccoon:

The institution is call ProShares. If they go under, SVXY won't be the only victim. Besides, it's ETF and its assets should be passed to the shareholders if the underwriter goe out of business.
That is one scenario but it is not unique for SVXY and very unlikely. Most people who say that it may go down to zero think of some sort of a broad market crash circa 1987 and I'd like see their logic.

BTW, if I take a position I will post a screen shot with a time stamp here :-)

This is all true. It's not an ETN, so bankruptcy risk is a lot lower. In any case, I wouldn't be worried about it going to zero. I would be worried about it not performing as advertised.
 
Quote from rocky_raccoon:

If someone says that an instrument may go down to zero they should explain their thinking, shoudn't they?

Actually people can come in a poke things at you without any explained reasoning.. just as you can make odd claims hoping to fish for insight from the more knowledgeable.. Thats the nature of the beast..
 
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