Selling Premium - Strategy Never Discussed

[ironchef]

I skimmed this thread, but I don’t think Robert has said anything foolish.

There’s nothing wrong with selling cash secured puts unlevered. He’s taking a view that the premium received will compensate him over the long run.

I don’t see anything wrong with his strategy of rolling his puts down and out to preserve his premium. he hasn’t increased his risk. He’s not doubling down as much as he’s extending his duration.

His strategy should perform with about (maybe slightly better) the same sharpe as the overall market. I certainly wouldn’t qualify it as picking up pennies in front of a steam roller as he isn’t any more leveraged than a buy and hold investor.

I am now a believer that with knowledge and judgement (don't over leverage), one can make a good living going long, going short, trading single leg or in any combinations.

My dear friend has been writing calls and puts for a living for over 15 years. He wrote calls/puts on the same stock all these years. It wasn't done mechanically.

 

[Tradex]

You need to calculate sharpe ratio, you can't compare absolute dollar returns. They are not indicative at all. I can make millions if I have a billion.

Scammers love to throw big numbers around to impress the naive on the internet and during cocktail parties ("Oh, my trading system made 50K in the last two weeks shorting the DOW....blah blah blah .")

But ask them for their annual return in percentage (ROI) and their maximum drawdown for the last 5, 10 or 20 years and you'll get ZERO answer.

 

[ironchef]

There are many legitimate trading courses and instructors. But often people who signed up had unrealistic expectations.

The courses should always be treated as learning trading basics rather than a ticket to riches.

 

[Tradex]

The courses should always be treated as learning trading basics rather than a ticket to riches

Indeed, my friend.

 

[newwurldmn]

Scammers love to throw big numbers around to impress the naive on the internet and during cocktail parties ("Oh, my trading system made 50K in the last two weeks shorting the DOW....blah blah blah .")

But ask them for their annual return in percentage (ROI) and their maximum drawdown for the last 5, 10 or 20 years and you'll get ZERO answer.

I ask people about triangular arbitrage.

 

[traider]

I will love to know how to triangulate new york , london and japan to achieve lowest latency

 

[traider]

 

[Sig]

I skimmed this thread, but I don’t think Robert has said anything foolish.

There’s nothing wrong with selling cash secured puts unlevered. He’s taking a view that the premium received will compensate him over the long run.

I don’t see anything wrong with his strategy of rolling his puts down and out to preserve his premium. he hasn’t increased his risk. He’s not doubling down as much as he’s extending his duration.

His strategy should perform with about (maybe slightly better) the same sharpe as the overall market. I certainly wouldn’t qualify it as picking up pennies in front of a steam roller as he isn’t any more leveraged than a buy and hold investor.

You're right, it's not a high risk strategy if you don't lever. As @traider just showed though, I don't know that he gets the same Sharpe as the market. I would actually think the opposite. If volatility was constant and predictable and there was no upward bias to the market, then yes, he would get the same as the market. But he's basically giving up anything unexpectedly good to the upside he would have if he invested in the market, and exposing himself to any unexpected downside same as if he was invested in the market. Assuming volatility is a random walk, he's basically giving up all of the upward bias to the market and in exchange maybe getting the benefit of the volatility smile if he bought far enough OTM puts. I don't think that nets out to one's benefit over the long term on a risk adjusted reward basis, compared to just investing in the market?

 

[robertSt]

Meanwhile....I sold 10 more GME 40 puts for next week. For that, they gave me $5100, more than 12%. Yeah, it's an anomaly and I'll soon have to return to the more customary 2-3%.

 

[newwurldmn]

It’s an age old question: does overwriting provide better risk ardjusted returns than just being long?

It probably doesn’t, otherwise every major mutual fund would be doing it. But a lot of research indicates that it does.

However I don’t think it’s a bad strategy. He’s betting that the premium received will compensate him in excess of the volatility for the updrift that he has sold away.

You're right, it's not a high risk strategy if you don't lever. As @traider just showed though, I don't know that he gets the same Sharpe as the market. I would actually think the opposite. If volatility was constant and predictable and there was no upward bias to the market, then yes, he would get the same as the market. But he's basically giving up anything unexpectedly good to the upside he would have if he invested in the market, and exposing himself to any unexpected downside same as if he was invested in the market. Assuming volatility is a random walk, he's basically giving up all of the upward bias to the market and in exchange maybe getting the benefit of the volatility smile if he bought far enough OTM puts. I don't think that nets out to one's benefit over the long term on a risk adjusted reward basis, compared to just investing in the market?