Selling Calls To Take Advantage of SPY Drop to 82 By 18-Sep

Chances SPY Will Drop To 82 By Mid September

  • Virtually Impossible

    Votes: 6 8.0%
  • Unlikely

    Votes: 8 10.7%
  • Possible

    Votes: 13 17.3%
  • Likely

    Votes: 25 33.3%
  • Sure Thing

    Votes: 16 21.3%
  • Yet Another Fool Ready To Part With His $$

    Votes: 7 9.3%

  • Total voters
    75
Quote from gkishot:

As long as spy continues moving sideways your positions will be profitable.

sure, but i am worried about being overexposed to one side when/if option assignment happens.

is there a way to know or to guess whether my short June 92 Puts will be assigned? SPY closing price 92.04, AH it is trading at 91.86
 
Look at the extrinsic value of each leg. If any leg has extrinsic value less than a dime I would close the straddle and replace it with a strike price closer to the market ( or if it's too close to expiration with a further out ) For jul options you have nothing to worry about, but check their extrinsic values regularly.

Make sure also that you've allocated enough margin for your straddles.
 
got assigned 200 shrs SPY. it seems the closing price on friday (92.04) determined which puts got exercised. because of the confusing last friday now i have a large position that need to deal with.

for now the plan is to replace 200 long SPY with -4x short puts. i started this by selling 89 July puts. since the market went against me, now i am waiting for a rebound to get rid of 200 SPY.

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no trades so far. biting my nails for not closing 200 SPY this morning. got a bit greedy. because i have -4x puts from yesterday AH as a replacement for 200 SPY, a bounce this morning was a perfect opportunity to finish the replacement.

my plans are:
1) get rid of 200 SPY to become market neutral
2) trim positions a bit to reduce exposure

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sold 200 SPY in the morning (90.20). Covered -2x 89P for 1.63. Basically, I want to have a slight short bias going into the Fed announcement because i think there is too much complacency in the market.

realized PL (not shown in the screen shot):
-390 (200 SPY based on 92.04 assignment price)
+112 2x 89 July Puts

Midday update before Fed:
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***edited attachment because another unrelated position on the page affected PL***
 

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