Sell in May?

hedron

hedron

What do you guys think? I'd just be regurgitating anything about valuations and I really don't have much more insight than any blogs out there. Well, other than to say that it's not going to be another 2008.

Russia would have to come back pretty strong. Oil would have to double. And the dollar would have to collapse. Three things I don't think are going to happen. Russia will come back, but not so strong to have any effect on the US economy. I don't follow oil very closely, but I really doubt it will come anywhere close to doubling. And the dollar isn't going to collapse, despite what gold bugs will tell you.

Black swan events could include a mass student debt default. I can't think of anything else, other than that QE money has not been spent(at least, there's no evidence it has), so the whole interest rates fear is overplayed.
 
hedron said:
What do you guys think? I'd just be regurgitating anything about valuations and I really don't have much more insight than any blogs out there. Well, other than to say that it's not going to be another 2008.

Russia would have to come back pretty strong. Oil would have to double. And the dollar would have to collapse. Three things I don't think are going to happen. Russia will come back, but not so strong to have any effect on the US economy. I don't follow oil very closely, but I really doubt it will come anywhere close to doubling. And the dollar isn't going to collapse, despite what gold bugs will tell you.

Black swan events could include a mass student debt default. I can't think of anything else, other than that QE money has not been spent(at least, there's no evidence it has), so the whole interest rates fear is overplayed.
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do like I do, every year on your birthday reposition your portfolio, then you know you are good for a year and never have to check it again. There's better things to do than check your net worth every day or every month.

Sell in May? And just how much will that strategy add to your net worth years from now?

If you really want to know, check the value of your stock portfolio and the appraised value on your house and the resale value on your car everyday. My guess is some months you will be rich and other months you will be poor (based on 50% are rich and the other 50% are poor.)

Check everything once a year on your birthday and re evaluate and re allocate if necessary. If you were born on May 1st, selling (or buying) in May may be just for you.
 
Hm... I'm not really asking for advice. I have my own method surrounding the stocks I own. I know when I want to sell them.

There is a seasonal pattern around May and October that has been tested and validated, so it's better than on your birthday, which is just random.
 
hedron said:
Hm... I'm not really asking for advice. I have my own method surrounding the stocks I own. I know when I want to sell them.

There is a seasonal pattern around May and October that has been tested and validated, so it's better than on your birthday, which is just random.
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test that seasonal pattern against your birthday and get back to me
 
hedron said:
Ok.

See, there is fundamental reasons for the pattern. So, you go read up on that and get back to me.
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I read up on it, back in the days when I was trading wheat corn and beans. Many books were written on seasonality. In ags, the seasons are everything. I've read up on it and I would not bet my account on a cute rhyme which says, "Sell in May and go away."
 
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