Sell in May and go away

[TheDawn]

Try to get sober and come back in October?

Where there is the Oktoberfest? LOL Oh yeah...

 

[TrAndy2022]

Relevant scientific studies for the Halloween effect (as Sell in May effect) from a longterm perspective (up to 300 years here):
http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Courses/434/434Context/Calendar Effects/SellInMayGoAway.pdf
https://www.tias.edu/docs/default-source/Kennisartikelen/ssrn-id2154873.pdf?sfvrsn=2

 

[cosmo88]

All the studies are quite nice. I like the platform of https://www.stockmarketonline.com/seasonality-chart. There you can easily analyze the seasonal patterns of the SPY ETF and a few other stocks and shares for free (without registration).

 

[Buy1Sell2]

1. Generally the stats don't lie.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sell_in_May#:~:text=Sell in May and go,average than the other months.

2. Government shutdown after June 1st, because they won't reach an agreement.

3. Hollywood strikes signaled a market downturn 8/9 times. The WGA has started its strike today.

4. Last year the SPX went from similar levels like today down to 3700 by 2nd week of June and to 3500 by early Oct.

5. 2 years ago, when the market rallied during the whole summer, you only missed 80 SPX points between May to October's drop. From that October's low SPX went up 500 points in the following 3 months.

www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/135bw5v/hollywood_strike_tomorrow_is_predicting_a_us/

Between today and end of October I expect a minimum 10% drop for the SPX. Today 4167, so close to 3700.

I will do some research on it later, but from the above Wiki link:

" Andrade, Chhaochharia and Fuerst (2012) found that the seasonal pattern persisted. In the 1998–2012 sample on average November–April they found that returns are larger than May–October returns in all 37 markets they studied. On average, the difference is equal to about 10 percentage points. "

Right now, we are in an uptrend

 

[maxinger]

Very good trading opportunities in May actually.

Gold futures day range has been at >20 points or >1% (see lower chart).

 

[deaddog]

Right now, we are in an uptrend

Do you really think so? I look at the weekly chart of SPY and although I'm seeing higher lows I'm not really seeing higher highs. (418.31 Jan high hasn't been broken)

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Do you really think so? I look at the weekly chart of SPY and although I'm seeing higher lows I'm not really seeing higher highs. (418.31 Jan high hasn't been broken)

Without question--

 

[murray t turtle]

Without question--
View attachment 314182

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I can barely read your/ barchart with no numbersLOL.
barchart.com has SPY a 100% buy , short med ,+ long term200dma buy.
But SCHW Market Edge says ''hold...... but do not initiate new positions''
As of 11;17 CST, monday its still below FRI close+ below FEB Hi.
Good buy + good bye.
IF i had known it was going up like this i would have kept my SSO trade longer/LOL[Edit get sober + do alot of work before October]

 

[Pekelo]

Checking back after 3 weeks, the market has been mostly sideways, SPX 4145 after the current run up and drop.

 

[murray t turtle]

Without question--
View attachment 314182

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Good uptrend\ flattened a bit, near top on Donchian channel.
SCHW Market Edge /SPY = a buy,80%
barchart.com has a 96% SPY buy;
SCHW Market Edge is edging a buy on SDS ''mildly improving condition= DO NOT initiate a new short position on SDS''
Looks like Ken G of Citadel maybe right, public forecast expect more vol.....as debt deadline [JUNE1-15 ]nears............................................................................