Sell in May and go away

Pekelo said:
That is too early, unless there was a meltdown early September already. Wait until the October drop, I would say.
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It is an old saying in the stock markets, I did not make it up. It is how the rhyme in your topic title continues :)

Did not mean to imply anything regarding monthly performance...
 
I just always assumed that phrase was coined by rich,fat cat Wall Street types (think Randolph and Mortimer Duke) who could afford to spend the entire summer on vacation at their beach house in The Hamptons after making a killing in the market the previous nine months.
 
TrAndy2022 said:
https://fullyvested.com/insights/st-legers-day-sell-may-go-away/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSKCN1IJ2HE
https://bluegrassam.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Sell20in20May202020.pdf
View attachment 313541
There's no question that the November through April period has provided substantially better returns. Whether you average it out, annualize it, or compound it, there is clearly a significant spread between the average six-month returns during these contrasting seasonal periods. Market Seasonality Notes:
• Since April 30th, 2000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has gained over 125%. However, the Index is up just over 1.62% when we isolate the seasonally weak periods.
• 2019 (November 2019 – April 2020) was the worst seasonally strong period since 2008 and the fourth worst on record.
• During the seasonally weak May to October periods, 27 out of the 70 years examined finished down, while there were only 15 years during which the seasonally strong period produced a negative return.
• There have been only three years when the "good six months" have lost more than 10% (1969, 1973 and 2008), while the "bad six months" have seen losses of 10% or more 11 times. The most recent “good six months” missed joining the list of double-digit losers by just a couple of basis points.
• There have been 15 instances since 1980 where the "good six months" have posted a doubledigit return, with five of those returning more than 20%.
• Interestingly enough, following the times when the "bad six months" did produce double-digit losses (11 total since 1950), the "good six-month" period afterward lost more than 1% only once (2008) and on four occasions, actually posted double-digit positive returns (1962, 1966, 1971, & 1974)
• Beginning in November 2009, the Dow experienced a streak of four consecutive positive doubledigit efforts during the strong six-month periods, the second-longest such streak in history. The first began in 1994 where the Dow finished the seasonally strong period with double-digit gains for five consecutive periods
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OK good data;
but that title assumes no shorts then\ or inverse ETf's.LOL:caution::caution:
NO wonder not too many-- or any funds doing that, as you noted first '' 7 years weak period[1950-57 '' - no thanks.]
And last 7 years on your chart, no thanks= clearly inferior way would be ''sell in May + go Away''
Thanks Andy+ personal would you do that headline??:D:D
SH+ related clearly did not get the sell in May+ go away message ,today; not the go away part anyway-12 :55 CST. Markets close in 2 hours
 
Pekelo said:
Don't you think the good times eventually will run out of steam? You know, with a government shut down or something???
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LAST time that happened [Pres Trump, WSJ proof]+ markets liked it/uptrend proof .
REALLY, you think EPA is actually helping economy??:D:D
WE do have cleaner streets since they stopped using horses, but that's not the EPA ,with all due respect.
I do think positive earnings did help the uptrend; not a prediction.
Good SH + related counterend,today but that'$ not main trend.
 
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