Quote from Candace:
A deflationist who advocates buying commodities but not stocks. Has your view changed since Oct 14th by chance? Is your view based on stats/measurable probabilities or a fundamental theory? Does your negative view on stocks extend to stocks trading on markets outside of the US perchance?
Here are my own simple views. We are above the 50ma on SPY but we bumped up against resistance (June lows) and had a decent sized red candle yesterday so I would not be eager to buy here. The VIX is still elevated so we can expect big moves, one way or the other. The charts of emerging markets (e.g. China (FXI) and Brazil (EWZ)) look more positive.
Oh, my! My Alzheimers is so advanced that I could remember what I had for breakfast if I could remember that I had had breakfast. So sparing myself the pain of looking at what whoever I was then wrote on October 14th, I will simply state my immediate view, shortly to be forgotten. The mooted leveraging of European sovereign debt rescue resources will make a terrible problem terribler, Greece will default, Euro banks will crater, US financial institutions will take heavy losses, US resources will be inadequate to guarantee the losses, 401Ks will take huge hits, and we will all be selling apples by the roadside. That is the bad news. The good news is that apples will be cheap. The hole the greedy bastard Ashkenazim bankers have dug for us will be so deep that a war of total mobilization will be the only way out. Stock markets worldwide are focussed on the ends of their noses where Post-Its announcing quarterly earnings will be pasted, based on Generally-Established Ashkenazim Accounting Principles.
I have given up on any and all TA until sanity is restored post-crash. If your analysis is correct and my lack of analysis is wrong, I won't get hurt. Profits potentially not made are irrelevant to me compared to potential losses. I made a shitpot of money in 2009-2010 in what I thought was a rational market. What I made is enjoying relative stability invested in paid-off debt, guns, cartridges, pure alcohol, sturdy clothes, emergency supplies/equipment, PMs and cash.
Since I am inconsistently consistently wrong, go long your emerging markets. Just beware that they get the shits when we get gas pains.
The greedy bastards make money in both good times and bad. In bad, a favorite ploy is foreclosure for non-payment of local taxes. You might want to consider selling your house. Read the game plan in histories of the Not-So-Great Depression.
