Paper trading is still another game.
You need some skin in the game to progress.
To be profitable on paper =! Being profitable live.
Sekiyo’s journal
- Thread starter Sekiyo
- Start date
Paper trading is still another game.
You need some skin in the game to progress.
To be profitable on paper =! Being profitable live.
ES Charts.
IntraDay 5+ Pts Swings (About 40+
)IntraWeek 25+ Pts Swings
IntraMonth 100+ Pts Swings
Numbers are volume per length.
ES Charts.
IntraDay 5+ Pts Swings
IntraDay 10+ Pts Swings
IntraDay 20+ Pts Swings
Monthly wise we're kinda stationary.
The mean doesn't move much.
Weekly. Mostly Bearish.
Daily. It's a bird !
We've made a strong close @ 4700 volume per length.
But if you look back on Monday. We did close strong too (4712)
Currently 4304 volume in average.
Kinda weak. Let's see.
Last edited:
Yes. You need to start thinking about what you can lose - not what you can win.
In day trading - you really can't lose that much if you want to be successful. Having to rely on that + 30 point trade to get back to breakeven and some profits isn't a robust strategy.
Realistically, you're not going to be averaging 20 ES points per day now. Your TST results prove it and your live account proves it.
In my opinion - you need to learn to walk first. Try to reach for a modest daily profit target and call it a day as soon as you hit that. Start building some consistency. It's much better to consistently net a few points per day than taking on wild equity swings of + 20 one day, - 30 the next, etc.
When you hit your target - trade the rest of the day in the simulator or work on your trading plan.
Would you trust your own money to someone who described his trading like that?
What I learned from the last time I asked you is that you don't have a written business plan or objectively defined signals.
Without that - your results are likely to be random and you're pretty much guessing.
Do you log/back-check the trading day after you're done? And write down observations/signals?
Part of my trading routine is exactly that. I log each trading day and review the trading day. I note down all my signals. Then I review the day one bar at a time and make notes. I do this on my main chart and on my fast chart. I also do a bigger picture analysis and take screenshots of patterns, etc.
I think the best use of your time right now would be to take a few weeks away from live trading and start backtesting some data and gather some statistics. Alternatively, trade 2 hours each day.
Scroll the chart from left to right and make observations. Take notes in Excel.
Maybe start with one single set-up and master that one. Find some signals you may use.
For example breakouts. ES isn't really a breakout instrument. It may breakout, but often you'll see either a fake breakout which you can fade or if it's a real breakout you'll pretty much always have a chance to enter on a pullback.
So, maybe in backtesting you discover that entering on breakouts is a low probability trade since you may buy the top or sell the low. Now you have a trading rule: Don't enter on breakouts. Wait for the pullback.
This is just an example. Your back-test will reveal the truth about any given market. Not what gurus or books say will happen. Each market is different.
Maybe you can look into 50 % retracements of the current RTH range. They don't work all the time, but quite often these can offer good pullback entries.
Another thing which should help you as a rule is to not enter a move which is overextended. Sure, these days there are some monster moves which goes 30-50 points, but this business is about what works most of the time. Not just some of the time. If you missed an initial move and we already moved 20 points - don't chase a late entry. If anything, enter on a pullback.
Do this and get yourself a written plan which details your entire trading operation.
When this is done - you SHOULD find yourself not trading most of the time. Most of your time will be spent in observation and waiting for a signal. You never enter unless you have a signal. If it's one thing I've learned from a lot of successful traders it's that a lot of the time they're just waiting and the best ones never enter unless everything lines up perfectly.
Looks like price may breakout or go higher/lower? That's not a signal.
When you start thinking like that rather ask yourself: What can I LOSE if I just jump into the market here?
Got to take some time to reply to @Laissez Faire
But in the mean time I had to say ...
The goal is really to min(Losses) and max(Profits)
One way is to achieve it is to trade losses on a lower timeframe than the profits timeframe.
To lose ticks (for exemple) to earn points.
Or to lose points to earn deca(10s)points.
Asymmetry is a function of time, mean & variance.
I believe the edge is in the bias.
Risk is variance.
But in the mean time I had to say ...
The goal is really to min(Losses) and max(Profits)
One way is to achieve it is to trade losses on a lower timeframe than the profits timeframe.
To lose ticks (for exemple) to earn points.
Or to lose points to earn deca(10s)points.
Asymmetry is a function of time, mean & variance.
I believe the edge is in the bias.
Risk is variance.
Last edited:
Can I just make one comment in addition to what @Laissez Faire has articulated so well above? Imagine yourself (literally picture it in your head) standing behind some trader who is making the identical move as you. What would you say to that guy when he was chasing the market or exiting at the low, etc, etc? From a bystander's perspective things can look awfully clear since no emotion is involved. Try it sometime. You would be amazed.
BTW what's the rationale for using or looking at the 20-minute chart (which is odd to say the least)? I think you should use what everyone else is using since that's what will move the market.
BTW what's the rationale for using or looking at the 20-minute chart (which is odd to say the least)? I think you should use what everyone else is using since that's what will move the market.
Sekiyo your trading a small account . Your emotions will be different than a guy trading a $100k amount . What apply's to some of the guys giving you advise won't apply to you . A few big mistakes and your account is critically wounded .Your room for error is much smaller . As i advised you before I would trade 1 and only 1 mes at a time for a week or 2 till you gain confidence and consistency . Till you have 5 winning days in a row i wouldn't go to 2 mes. I'd have a max loss of $100 a day .If you make $100-$150 in a day shut it down . You desperately need confidence . That means you can have 4 / 5 point loses a day . I've noticed your all over the place . Averaging in losers and holding overnight . Remember this . CONFIDENCE IS CONTAGIOUS . Only you can formulate a trading plan based on your personality and your risk tolerance .
It means that all available information to date has already been reflected in the price of stock, options, futures, etc.