Sekiyo’s journal

[trading_jean]

I am not that experienced as others, but one thing I learned is that I trade a lot better if I keep my size very small. Maybe it is different for you, but with bigger size I tend to secure profits too quick and I am more reluctant to take losses.

Give yourself a couple of weeks trading micro's and just focus on making points rather than money. What do you have to lose by giving it a try would be my main argument

 

[Sekiyo]

I am not that experienced as others, but one thing I learned is that I trade a lot better if I keep my size very small. Maybe it is different for you, but with bigger size I tend to secure profits too quick and I am more reluctant to take losses.

Give yourself a couple of weeks trading micro's and just focus on making points rather than money. What do you have to lose by giving it a try would be my main argument

It is scared money.
Guess it holds true for everyone.
1ES is too big for me. I am blind to the losses.
My sanity check would tell me exactly what you've told me.
The goal should be to hard wire and improve my decision proccess.
To score points and earn money is definitely an outcome and this is no magic.

I am just trying to make money,
Burn steps but I'll ultimately bow up this way.

Thanks

 

[Sekiyo]

Good job overall. Your timing seems pretty good today. But, ahem, you were too impatient with your trades. Had you held on a bit longer, your losses would have turned into big winners. Yesterday, on the other hand, you were too impulsive. It seemed as if you were taking trades by instinct rather than your setup.

Also @Laissez Faire and others have given sound advice. I too believe you should adjust your position sizing to 1 MES lot until you feel confident with your setups. Consider this to be your learning phase and the losses as a tuition. It's a small price for a greater understanding of the market. After all, everyone wants you to succeed. Seriously.

Have a nice weekend.

I am fine with Friday's loss.
It's a loss well taken as per plan.
But the profits should be much bigger.

Indeed ...

Thursday I did bullshit all day long.
You nailed it. My trading was impulsive.
I couldn't tell why I took all these trades ...

I'll definitely trade MES because I don't want to blow up.
And that I definitely need to trade smaller, risk management wise.
Still learning, hard wiring and strengthening the process into my soul.

So you guys don't want my money ?
Waiting for my bankroll to grow bigger,
Before to actually steal it away from me ?

Thanks for the feedbacks.
Always appreciate.

 

[Sekiyo]

You can always take partial and try to let some of your position run (obviously only if more than 1 contract)

More important to keep your losses small.

True.
Sometimes I move SL to break even,
When I am actually shooting myself into the foot.
Because the +1 tick is definitely too close from the last price.

Another way to secure a trade is to take a partial profit,
For this partial profit to cover for the initial loss.
Leave the stop loss as per plan in a safe place,
Then leave the remaining position running.

True, Risk management is key.
Better take a small and appropriate loss,
Update the situation on the sideline then trade the plan.

 

[Sekiyo]

This is the summary of your trade log:

• 28 winning trades for totally $1,819.90
• 20 losing trades for totally $ 2,584
• 58% winning trades

Here you can see the impact of reducing your losses and/or improving your profits:
View attachment 227298

cell I25 is your actual result. Watch how big the impact is if you reduce your losses tick by tick, and how you improve your profits tick by tick.

Only the combinations in the white cells area are profitable.

Check also the impact if you have more, or less, profitable trades.
Your average loss per trade is double of the average profit per trade. You should have 67% profitable trades before you can make any profits.

The first thing to do is trade 1 Emicro instead of 1 E-mini ES. That would have reduced your losses by +- $700. You made that loss in less than 2 days trading. Continuing like that would cost you on 240 days of trading $84,000 extra. Your small loss wil become huge because of "frequency".

Gosh.
You're a number guy.
Thought I was the only crazy down there.
It's time consuming to enter the numbers cell by cell.

Thanks for the analysis.
Agree that a small difference can make a big one over time.
Every single tick does count in the long run & I do pick up pennies ...

I know my statistics sucks.
I lose too much for the reward involved.
I am a sucker taking sucker bets. Got to change this.

Definitely have to stop with the ES.
Thanks for backing this up with numbers.
Call me stupid if I ever trade the ES again, please.

Thanks !
Great analysis.

 

[Sekiyo]

What do you do with those 24 hours? Non-stop trading?

How would you characterize your methodology or approach? Are you swing trading short term, i.e., trying to capture larger 20+ point swings? Or are you day trading shorter targets? Or both?

Is everything written down and well defined in a trading plan?

How about instead focusing on the 1st 3 hours of the RTH session with lazer focus or the entire session if you're up for it? Or some other time period if that's better for you.

Maybe set a modest profit goal. Say 3-5 points. Try to hit that. Consistently.

You need to make sure you have sufficient time to research and test things too. If you're only trading all day long - you may not progress sufficiently in that area.

What is required for you to enter the market? Do you plan the trade? Do you use indicators? What defines your signals? Are they back-tested? Do you have statistics for how often they work and how often they don't? Or how price normally should react when a signal is successful and how price normally should react if not?

Personally, I can't endorse Al Brooks as I don't use that stuff, but I don't think you can go wrong with NoDoji's advice in general. She put in a lot of work back-testing the market and her setups bar by bar and detailing the results in a spreadsheet similar to what I outlined above.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/nodojis-trading-plan-development.237799/

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/discretionary-day-trading-maintaining-focus.219309/

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/lessons-from-the-hard-right-edge.212873/

I could stare at the screen an entire day.
Quarantine doesn't help. I did burn out on thursday.
That's why I've not traded much on Friday. Got outside.

Seriously, I am not here for ticks.
Ideally I am trying to capture swings.
But lately I am unable to hold onto winners.
I end up swinging my losses and scalping my profits.

Plan isn't written down.
Thought about programming signals,
But there are some gray areas that I couldn't logically describe.
For exemple, I couldn't logically define a "Leg" but ZigZag does help here.
Might reverse engineer it and find my way to put it down logically, algorithmically.

Problem is opportunities aren't always within 1st three hours RTH session.
But it's sound advice anyway. Often I find the best opportunity at the close.
Anyway ... If I had to trade only 3 hours I'd definitely choose this very schedule.

Same for goals ...
Ideally I don't want to set goals.
I'd like to be more process oriented.
Be positionned for the next opportunity.
Instead of points I might set lazer focus hours.

I don't do backtest but trade real time.
Sometimes I might simulate a position in my head.
A dozen times maybe then I'd scroll backward and trade real money.

I am breathing trading anyway.
Everything I consume is trading related.
Books, movies, social medias... I think about it.
Know it's not rigorous analysis to only think about it.

"What is required for you to enter the market? Do you plan the trade? Do you use indicators? What defines your signals? Are they back-tested? Do you have statistics for how often they work and how often they don't? Or how price normally should react when a signal is successful and how price normally should react if not?"

This is serious business.
And all these questions don't have crystal clear answer.
Maybe the most important questions one has to ask himself.

I'll check NoDoji's advices.

Thank you very much for asking the right questions.
A trader shouldn't shy away from these.
Let me think about it.

Thank you !

 

[Overnight]

I am breathing trading anyway.
Everything I consume is trading related.
Books, movies, social medias... I think about it...

Indeed. Just wait until this latest shitty mess is over, and J Powell and his cronies are going to be singing this same song-and-dance after the USD collapses from the dumb they did...

 

[Sekiyo]

 

[Laissez Faire]

I don't do backtest but trade real time.

This is serious business.
And all these questions don't have crystal clear answer.

I'll check NoDoji's advices.

Thank you very much for asking the right questions.
A trader shouldn't shy away from these.
Let me think about it.

Thank you !

So, your method/setups/rules(?) are not back tested and you don't have a written trading plan outlining your trading operation which details your approach, methodology and money management?

If so, I think that's your main problem.

Even having the above does not necessarily guarantee success as you need to be able to actually follow your plan all the time and it needs to be a plan with a positive expectancy.

Easier said than done. But without a proper plan, I think your odds are slim at best and it's the reason you're struggling to be consistent.

 

[Sekiyo]

So, your method/setups/rules(?) are not back tested and you don't have a written trading plan outlining your trading operation which details your approach, methodology and money management?

If so, I think that's your main problem.

Even having the above does not necessarily guarantee success as you need to be able to actually follow your plan all the time and it needs to be a plan with a positive expectancy.

Easier said than done. But without a proper plan, I think your odds are slim at best and it's the reason you're struggling to be consistent.

I do have an approach.
It's just sound principles.

Obviously, the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market
- Jesse Livermore

I can guessimate the bias and variance of my time frame.
I do have levels where I want to initiate and exit.
From these I know how much I should bet.

Got a spreadsheet that looks like this:

It's part of my analysis.
I draw lines too. Look for support, resistance.
I am learning to look at the DOM to gather more information.

I want to buy (sell) support (resistance) in a bull (bear) market.

It's really simple.
I want the market to be in imbalance.
More upticks than downticks, More upside than downside.
Basically I am a "trend" follower. I bet on expension, path dependence.

I'd rather avoid counter trading and sideways markets
That's why I am open to trading commodities and other underlyings.

But I am still learning,
And optimizing my tactics.
However I have not backtested it.

What's a bull / bear / sideways market ?
What's a support / resistance ?
What's the bet worth ?

I could answer these.
Are my answers consistent ? Not always.
Are my answers realistic ? I can't tell.