Sekiyo's 50K TopStep Combine

[Sekiyo]

Been a while,
My approach really changed.

I trade Cryptocurrencies, looking forward to trade stocks, on higher time frame (Weekly / Daily).
But with this correction going on in stocks and cryptocurrency since December,
Then I turn myself towards intraday trading, again.

Never really been successful intraday.
But as I said my system is different this time.

So I am trying to apply to intraday future trading.

Not sure why I open this journal.
Got rid of twitter so I feel the need to post.

It's going to be an opportunity to read more about you.
While I am there I'll check the threads.

 

[Sekiyo]

That's my template.

It's a Momentum strategy,
I use trading view for charting,
Look for breakouts and volume.

Always trade with the trend.

The 1min and 3min charts are for Entries.
The 15min and the 1h charts are for levels and dynamics.

The moving average is here to make the chart look fancy.
Bars are colored based on a bollinger band on volume.

My interpretation of the market is based on closes.
Bearish and Bullish are the building block.
Then I have levels (last 3 are enough).

I look at the price and volume around levels,
Try to find tight areas to buy, because risk is important.

My ideal loss is 2ES points.
Ideal target is 6ES points.

 

[Sekiyo]

TST Goals are :
- February: STEP1 + STEP2
- March: PRO
- April : PREMIUM FUNDED ACCOUNT + BREAK THE RULES TO FLUSH ACCOUNT @ 10K

 

[Laissez Faire]

Good to see you back, Sekiyo!

Did you make any trades yet? The volatility is very elevated at the moment, so I'd say it would be wise to stay with a few micros initially if you're out of practice. We're seeing 10 point moves in seconds. Literally.

Try to find tight areas to buy, because risk is important.

My ideal loss is 2ES points.
Ideal target is 6ES points.

Risk is important, but if you use a 2 point stop in this environment I wonder if you can achieve the win rate you'd need to have a positive expectancy. With a 30 % win rate your expectancy is $15 per trade including commissions, so that's $1500 net after 100 trades. Not a very robust edge.

With a 50 % win rate your expectancy is $95 per trade and you're up $9500 after 100 trades. Much better.

However, I question if it's possible to achieve a 50 % win rate with a 2 point stop in this volatility as 2 points is what I'd call noise. Even 5 points is noise.

Probably, you're better off with a 5-10 point stop and a 15-20 point target.

Good luck!

 

[Sekiyo]

Good to see you back, Sekiyo!

Did you make any trades yet? The volatility is very elevated at the moment, so I'd say it would be wise to stay with a few micros initially if you're out of practice. We're seeing 10 point moves in seconds. Literally.



Risk is important, but if you use a 2 point stop in this environment I wonder if you can achieve the win rate you'd need to have a positive expectancy. With a 30 % win rate your expectancy is $15 per trade including commissions, so that's $1500 net after 100 trades. Not a very robust edge.

View attachment 276868

With a 50 % win rate your expectancy is $95 per trade and you're up $9500 after 100 trades. Much better.

View attachment 276869

However, I question if it's possible to achieve a 50 % win rate with a 2 point stop in this volatility as 2 points is what I'd call noise. Even 5 points is noise.

Probably, you're better off with a 5-10 point stop and a 15-20 point target.

Good luck!

Thanks for the warm welcome.
Really neat charts, simulations and analysis !

You're still the same Quant & Nice Guy than from my memories.

The volatility is EPIC !
Traded on Thursday overnight and Friday regular hours.

Made 1/4 (800$) of the 3K goal.

Used one contract on ES and NG (+8%)),
The swings were crazy so I checked the 1min for entry.
But even there it was almost impossible to find 2points entries.

I thought about switching to the micro.
Maybe I should shoot for more points with MES.

You're totally right.
Thanks for your insights.

Always a pleasure to read you.

Current stats are here but the sample size isn't significant.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Thanks for the warm welcome.
Really neat charts, simulations and analysis !

You're still the same Quant & Nice Guy than from my memories.

The volatility is EPIC !
Traded on Thursday overnight and Friday regular hours.

Made 1/4 (800$) of the 3K goal.

Used one contract on ES and NG (+8%))

Likewise! And nice start! Just don't rush it further. Rushing it seems to be the slow way on this journey.

The swings were crazy so I checked the 1min for entry.
But even there it was almost impossible to find 2points entries.

I thought about switching to the micro.
Maybe I should shoot for more points with MES.

You're totally right.

Right. I got burned myself last week trading 1 ES and found myself trading with tighter stops than ideal because of the monetary risk. I got away with 5 point stops on many trades, but were still trading a bit scared and getting out too early.

I'll be trading micros this week. Under normal volatility - it's different, IMO. But even then - a 2 point stop is hard on ES due to it's back-fill nature.

 

[Sekiyo]

Likewise! And nice start! Just don't rush it further. Rushing it seems to be the slow way on this journey.

Had 1 out of 2 chances to start nice ! Been lucky !
The hardest part is to be consistent over time.
Control risk and stay pro all the way down.

Thanks :

Right. I got burned myself last week trading 1 ES and found myself trading with tighter stops than ideal because of the monetary risk. I got away with 5 point stops on many trades, but were still trading a bit scared and getting out too early.

Glad to hear you found out why you got burned last week.
Tighter than ideal is never a good idea .. Better to leverage down and trade ideal !
Take it easy. Don't plan your trade according to last week. Stay focus on your system !

I'll be trading micros this week. Under normal volatility - it's different, IMO. But even then - a 2 point stop is hard on ES due to it's back-fill nature.

Yup ... 2pts got me shaken out multiple times just with the price backfiring.
I'll be listening to you and trade MES otherwise I'll regret wiping out my account.

On your simulations I see an easy 4K drawdown whereas my 50K TST combine max DD is 2K.
So I better trade MES especially with this volatility. I can trade up to 5 MES in this combine.

 

[Sekiyo]

NG up big 8% at open

Bought 4.980. SL 4.963 TP 5.057

Bought too early as we didn't close bullish on 3min ...
1min chart closed bullish.

SL should be placed below dominant candle on 1min

Bullish close on 3min. Support @ 4.972
Stop raised 4.970

New Dominant Candle on 1min
Stop can be raised below new structure.

 

[Sekiyo]

Got stopped out.
Actually we had no bullish close on 3min.
Closes were both <= than lowest high.

Don't buy w/o bullish close.
We had no volume neither inside those 3min candles.

 

[Sekiyo]

Bought 4.975

Bullish close on 3min. Good volume.
Stop @4.960

Still bullish on 1h and 15min