Seems liks day trading is all but finished!
- Thread starter fourcups
- Start date
Please allow me to clarify:
Not once in my posts or any from other "optimists" was it stated or implied that this market is not a tougher one to trade than some markets past. So this comparison is not relevant. No one denies that conditions are tougher for SOME traders. AND their trading styles. However, some trading styles work better in this kind of market.
No one suggested that we bury our heads in the sand and deny the truth about conditions. Once again, it it obvious by the postings that it affects some traders more than others.
So, if some traders are doing well in this market and others are not, but we are all trading the same market, then the problem is not really the market then, is it?
The thread started with "Is daytrading finished?" - the answer for most traders is "NO" - Particularly for the ones that are willing to practice all the "yadda-yadda" referred to above.
The others will stand there staring at the minefield and be too paralyzed by doubt and fear to attempt navigating it or to navigate it successfully.
IMO since we all have to trade the same market, perception of opportunity and willingness to adapt are the only significant mental variables. And the only solution to putting edge back into one's trading.
The rest is all just details.
Respecfully,
Paul
this is my first post. I've only been trading equities for about a year, so I do not know what it was like before. I tend to make money 18 or 19 days out of 20 now. I try to do very conservative scale in/scale out trading, averaging about 60,000 shares per day. My commissions tend to be about 1/3 rd of my profits. I do not use any technical indicators, and I try to just read the tape- price and volume. Any other profitable traders who would like to communicate would be appreciated. I'm trying to learn this field, since I've never done pairs trading, bullets, etc. Much appreciated.
Acrary, those are impressive #'s considering the crappy market lately. Is this type of approach profitable in choppy conditions or can it still be profitable in the occasional 2-3 day trends that rarely show up?
Looks like Alan took the postings here on this thread and turned it into an article.
By Alan Farley
Special to RealMoney.com
03/03/2003 11:56 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Alan Farley
It's Friday night, and we're headed over to the Trader's Bar. After a tough week, two veterans are pounding back some brews. Let's listen in on their conversation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gunslinger: This is a great market. Trading has always been tough, or everyone would be doing it. Listen, you can complain all you want, but I've never had another career where I could make money sitting in my pajamas, looking at a bunch of numbers. I trade when I want, the markets I want, and the hours I want. Can't beat that.
Market Mensch: The only way I can make money in this lousy market is to hold on for dear life and hope I get my move. Most of the time, I give back every penny I make, because it's so unpredictable. The charts are worthless, and the [expletive] market makers got us down to a science. They know exactly where we'll go short or go long. They tease us with a little profit, and then rip us to shreds.
Gunslinger: Everyone complains this market is the hardest one ever, and they all wish things would go back to the good old days. But they said the same thing when the market was really hot. Guess what? It's always hard. Get used to it.
Market Mensch: Hey, if you're getting better while the market is getting worse, more power to you. But don't say this market is getting better and that anyone who's struggling just can't cut it. Traders as a group are doing worse now than they did in the past. Just look at the lousy volume. It tells us the troubled times we're living in, brother. So please, be realistic!
Gunslinger: Trading is getting better and better for me, so it must be your perception that things are getting worse. How well you do depends on your skills and how you look at your trades. If you keep a clear head these days, you can still make a fortune. I'm so sick of traders complaining about the war, the hedgies and the specialists. Look in the mirror if you want to find the real culprit.
Market Mensch: Hey, who's whining now? I'm just asking you to be realistic. It's a fact of life the majority of traders are losing money in this market. So it's stupid for you to say it's just my perception that things are getting worse.
Gunslinger: Somebody's making money in this market. Listen, we all know it was a gravy train in the late '90s. Traders got used to the easy money, and now they're all looking for a plan that works. Excuse me if I don't shed a tear. You have to adapt to changing markets to make a living over the long haul. I tweak my system at least two or three times a year to stay ahead of things. It's the only way I know to survive.
Market Mensch: An old pro told me about traders who would break down and cry at their desks during the 1974 bear market. And this bear market is a lot tougher than that one. We just went through the biggest crash since 1929, and it'll be years before the money comes back. I suppose the good thing is someday it will come back, but I'm not sure I can last that long.
Gunslinger: Good traders will change their styles and methods to accommodate the market and adjust to it. Fools who play the blame game will wash out and go away. This market isn't too tough to trade -- it's just different. Admit it. You need to change in order to survive. Find out what works and stop blaming the market.
Market Mensch: Even my best trades turn my stomach these days. My timing is always off, and I sit through a thousand paper cuts before I make a penny. I feel like a masochist if I widen my stops, because I know they're going to get hit. It seems like getting stopped out has become more painful than it ever was. Hey, I know I'm supposed to step aside when things get rough and wait for the markets to come to me. But waiting for better days and skipping the bad ones means never trading at all.
Gunslinger: Most traders are too stubborn or too unwilling to adapt to market conditions as they really are. But they'll fail over time anyway, so who cares about them? I'm sure about one thing. If you say the market is too hard to trade, it will be, because it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Your mind-set will ultimately dictate your reality and trading results. So clear your head and get on with it.
Market Mensch: I trade over a dozen systems, and they're all losing money this year. The problem is no one is in a big rush to buy or sell anymore. That screws up all my breakout and trending strategies. They're totally useless, and even dangerous, in this lousy market. You can keep up the sales pitch all you want, but finding something that works right now is a major challenge.
Gunslinger: Can't you see it's the same cycle over again and again? Traders who make the big money start to lose their shirts. They step aside, and the newbies come pouring in. They win for a while and think they're hot stuff. Then they get crushed and are forced to quit. An efficient market forces the majority to lose over time. Real winners know why they win, while fake winners don't realize the market casino is setting them up for the big fall. That's the way it is, and the way it's always been. Deal with it.
Market Mensch: You made some good points, but I'm still skeptical. I guess it's back to the drawing board for me. One thing we both share is our love of the game. The market keeps drawing us back even when we get pounded. I'll bet you can't survive if you don't love it. You're right about one thing: I've heard about markets like this one many times in the past. They usually change just when the losers say it'll never change. I'm going to hang in there and stop complaining, at least for now.
Want another beer, dude?
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/theswingshift/10071655.html
By Alan Farley
Special to RealMoney.com
03/03/2003 11:56 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Alan Farley
It's Friday night, and we're headed over to the Trader's Bar. After a tough week, two veterans are pounding back some brews. Let's listen in on their conversation.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gunslinger: This is a great market. Trading has always been tough, or everyone would be doing it. Listen, you can complain all you want, but I've never had another career where I could make money sitting in my pajamas, looking at a bunch of numbers. I trade when I want, the markets I want, and the hours I want. Can't beat that.
Market Mensch: The only way I can make money in this lousy market is to hold on for dear life and hope I get my move. Most of the time, I give back every penny I make, because it's so unpredictable. The charts are worthless, and the [expletive] market makers got us down to a science. They know exactly where we'll go short or go long. They tease us with a little profit, and then rip us to shreds.
Gunslinger: Everyone complains this market is the hardest one ever, and they all wish things would go back to the good old days. But they said the same thing when the market was really hot. Guess what? It's always hard. Get used to it.
Market Mensch: Hey, if you're getting better while the market is getting worse, more power to you. But don't say this market is getting better and that anyone who's struggling just can't cut it. Traders as a group are doing worse now than they did in the past. Just look at the lousy volume. It tells us the troubled times we're living in, brother. So please, be realistic!
Gunslinger: Trading is getting better and better for me, so it must be your perception that things are getting worse. How well you do depends on your skills and how you look at your trades. If you keep a clear head these days, you can still make a fortune. I'm so sick of traders complaining about the war, the hedgies and the specialists. Look in the mirror if you want to find the real culprit.
Market Mensch: Hey, who's whining now? I'm just asking you to be realistic. It's a fact of life the majority of traders are losing money in this market. So it's stupid for you to say it's just my perception that things are getting worse.
Gunslinger: Somebody's making money in this market. Listen, we all know it was a gravy train in the late '90s. Traders got used to the easy money, and now they're all looking for a plan that works. Excuse me if I don't shed a tear. You have to adapt to changing markets to make a living over the long haul. I tweak my system at least two or three times a year to stay ahead of things. It's the only way I know to survive.
Market Mensch: An old pro told me about traders who would break down and cry at their desks during the 1974 bear market. And this bear market is a lot tougher than that one. We just went through the biggest crash since 1929, and it'll be years before the money comes back. I suppose the good thing is someday it will come back, but I'm not sure I can last that long.
Gunslinger: Good traders will change their styles and methods to accommodate the market and adjust to it. Fools who play the blame game will wash out and go away. This market isn't too tough to trade -- it's just different. Admit it. You need to change in order to survive. Find out what works and stop blaming the market.
Market Mensch: Even my best trades turn my stomach these days. My timing is always off, and I sit through a thousand paper cuts before I make a penny. I feel like a masochist if I widen my stops, because I know they're going to get hit. It seems like getting stopped out has become more painful than it ever was. Hey, I know I'm supposed to step aside when things get rough and wait for the markets to come to me. But waiting for better days and skipping the bad ones means never trading at all.
Gunslinger: Most traders are too stubborn or too unwilling to adapt to market conditions as they really are. But they'll fail over time anyway, so who cares about them? I'm sure about one thing. If you say the market is too hard to trade, it will be, because it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Your mind-set will ultimately dictate your reality and trading results. So clear your head and get on with it.
Market Mensch: I trade over a dozen systems, and they're all losing money this year. The problem is no one is in a big rush to buy or sell anymore. That screws up all my breakout and trending strategies. They're totally useless, and even dangerous, in this lousy market. You can keep up the sales pitch all you want, but finding something that works right now is a major challenge.
Gunslinger: Can't you see it's the same cycle over again and again? Traders who make the big money start to lose their shirts. They step aside, and the newbies come pouring in. They win for a while and think they're hot stuff. Then they get crushed and are forced to quit. An efficient market forces the majority to lose over time. Real winners know why they win, while fake winners don't realize the market casino is setting them up for the big fall. That's the way it is, and the way it's always been. Deal with it.
Market Mensch: You made some good points, but I'm still skeptical. I guess it's back to the drawing board for me. One thing we both share is our love of the game. The market keeps drawing us back even when we get pounded. I'll bet you can't survive if you don't love it. You're right about one thing: I've heard about markets like this one many times in the past. They usually change just when the losers say it'll never change. I'm going to hang in there and stop complaining, at least for now.
Want another beer, dude?
http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/theswingshift/10071655.html