Seeking countertrend indicator to go with my trendline

S

Steve Ladd

I trade (or "invest" since I hold for a couple months on average) mainly using trendlines. I like to combine that with countertrend in a shorter time frame for better entries and exits. Say the price of something is snaking upward within a channel. I want to buy when it is kissing the bottom of its channel. I want an indicator that quantifies that. Until recently I used one of the Fast Stochastics readouts but I could never really penetrate the math behind it and determine whether the time frame sensitivity was right for me. Besides, Stochastics is mostly used by people trading on momentum, that is, to them a high number is a buy signal, whereas for me a high number would indicate it's in the upper part of its channel, a poor time to buy.
 
Steve Ladd said:
but I could never really penetrate the math behind it and determine whether the time frame sensitivity was right for me.
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Cart & Horse going on here. Fix your math comprehension first, then go back over your (longer-term) channel model, *then* look for something that fills whatever methodological void you divine at that point. To chart-hop at this point, grabbing the next "Red & Green Arrows!" indicator that comes along -- that is a *popular* path, that will lead to ruin, as it's not lead by empirical outcomes, but by accidental correspondence. (And when it wins, the effects are temporary, and when it loses, the effects are quite permanent.)

(So, an actual *computable* equation, that you can explain to a 12 year old in a sentence or two -- that's 'comprehension...)
 
Metamega said:
Look at something like Keltner Channels. 20 day EMA or MA and 2-3 atr away. I like to help visualize size of swings or seeing over extension.
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%%
That sure could work, buy bottom of channels; but a good trend / top trend may not come near bottom keltner channels much . It could still work, but weekly QQQ only hit bottom Keltner channel once on 52 weeks; so a sparse signal may still work for some. Actually most years do NOT trend as well as 2019; but with low or no commissions, that could still be one way to profit.........................................................................................................................
 
this is all garbage in garbage out.

think this way - what are you trading against? a mystic 'market' black box somehow emits mysterious signals that you can catch with some math formulas aka indicators? or are you trading against other human beings who experience the exact same emotions like you do?

once you answer this question correctly, you will never waste time with trend lines and indicators.
 
dozu888 said:
this is all garbage in garbage out.

once you answer this question correctly, you will never waste time with trend lines and indicators.
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%% Maybe right;
mostly, but a 200 day moving average is a trend line+ a gold/silver mine is about 95%+ dirt/trash + a bit of gold.LOL Another ProbleM with counter trends is, slippage + so few pay dividends..........................................................:D:D,:caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution::caution:
 
The ZUP indicator is a professional multifunctional tool, as a result of which it is obliged to have the ability to maximally flexible settings. Turn off the search for patterns, remove Andrews pitchfork, adjust the channel and simulate it as you want

optimal version 150
 
Hey all, thanks for your input. My method is too different for your ideas to have helped direcly, but they caused the wheels to turn in my head. I'm trying a new countertrend measurement: (trendline price minus current price) / trendline price. Bigger the number, more attractive the trade. Added to my other factors.
 
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