Seeking BlackBox/GreyBox Systems

nononsense · Mar 7, 2005

Quote from OddTrader:

http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=16;t=003662;p=1

These guys making profits with automated trading have some double digit growth within a period of few weeks/ months, probably based on relatively short timeframes, I guess.

You're probably guessing.

Did you ever think about the automated trading potential of some double digit losses within a period of few weeks/ months, probably based on relatively short timeframes.

Much more likely: how would "automated trading" turn certified "high probability" loosers into winners? 95% will keep on loosing, albeit now automatically.

nononsense

OddTrader · Mar 7, 2005

Quote from nononsense:

Did you ever think about the automated trading potential of some double digit losses within a period of few weeks/ months, probably based on relatively short timeframes.

I guess again they probably/ basically have a stop trading set-up for maximum loss per (say) day.

AutoMate · Mar 12, 2005

I have some great responses so far via PM but still searching. Would like to keep this thread alive as well. I think there are a lot of automated traders out there who want to discuss their ideas.

One question I have for automation guys out there is this:

Do you thing that a system that is completely automated is or can be more profitable that one where the is intervention on a discretionary basis by a trader who simple uses the automation to leverage his skills and improve his efficiency?

vr82 · Mar 12, 2005

automate,
1) are you associated with a broker thereas you would benifit from commissions from high frequency trading.
2)i use automated trading all the time and then compare to what i make when i deviate with discretion. Discretion most of the time provides extra profit but by all means, automated trading is my base.

joehk · Mar 13, 2005

I have develop a black-box system for E-mini daytrading.

I have been e-mini trader for 3 years, before that I'm doing software programming for more than 10 years. Now, my black-box trading system is fully automated. But. I never use Tradestation platform. I develop all my system in java.

The shortage of using Tradstation type is that it only provide 1, 5 , 15 min ..... type fixed time frame analysis. You can never use something like 6.35 min time frame analysis. In daytrading, it make great difference in pattern anlysis.

Joe

Nana Trader · Jul 21, 2005

Quote from joehk:

The shortage of using Tradstation type is that it only provide 1, 5 , 15 min ..... type fixed time frame analysis.

Not true. You can type in anytime frame like 1,2,3,...minute,
as well tick, and volume chart in any interval.

You can never use something like 6.35 min time frame analysis. In daytrading, it make great difference in pattern anlysis.

It's good to have 6.35 or 1.35 minutes, but very few
people might need it. I hop TS provide seconds chart
soon.

Lawrence Chan · Jul 26, 2005

Quote from AutoMate:

I have some great responses so far via PM but still searching. Would like to keep this thread alive as well. I think there are a lot of automated traders out there who want to discuss their ideas.

One question I have for automation guys out there is this:

Do you thing that a system that is completely automated is or can be more profitable that one where the is intervention on a discretionary basis by a trader who simple uses the automation to leverage his skills and improve his efficiency?

Fully automated systematic trading is different from discretionary trading. They are different and cannot be compared.

Fully automated systems take out the human factor and avoid the emotional issues completely. For a trading firm, that provides a level of guarantee that even there is someone monitoring the systems, they will not affect the performance of the systems. For a system developer / trader, it helps if the person cannot control his emotion during trading, thus improve the bottom line. The underlying premises though, is that a consistently profitable system is deployed.

When you say a system that requries human intervention, that is a different ball game. The trader is the one that pulls the trigger, not the system. Thus the emphasis is placed on a profitable and consistent trader, who wants to improve his/her efficiency by automating some of the setups, that alert the trader when signals happen, or, even having the orders ready pending to be sent to the brokerage.

nitro · Jul 26, 2005

All these "seeking automated systems" are a joke. There have been at least two dozen of them recently, all by posters with 3 posts (likely aliases.) I responded in earnest to the poster in two or three of them and not once was there any interest. A friend of mine on ET also responded and also got no response.

It is either someone gathering information to see how many people respond, or a freak that gets off on these sorts of posts.

nitro

nitro · Jul 26, 2005

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

...Fully automated systems take out the human factor and avoid the emotional issues completely. ...

That is actually false but it is often said on ET.

A human is ultimately the one that turns a system on or off, and while the emotions are not the same that go on while it is you that is trading, the end result is often the same, pulling the plug for lack of confidence that you have grasped a real edge into the market.

Retail traders are ill-prepared to trade automated systems because most of these systems require lots of time to let them really be exposed to all sorts of market conditions. On the contrary, at the first sign of a real drawdown, most retail traders pull the plug on the system, for better or for worse.

There is no way to eliminate emotion let alone the human from trading unless you are very well capitlized and have lots of experience with the ups and downs of trading.

nitro

Avalanche · Jul 26, 2005

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

...Fully automated systems take out the human factor and avoid the emotional issues completely. ...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That is actually false but it is often said on ET.

A human is ultimately the one that turns a system on or off....

well duh, if they turn the system off sure, but that's the whole point he's trying to make. its "fully" automated. Turning it on and off would relegate it back to a greybox like senario and hence it wouldn't be what most people would term fully automated.

On another note, everyone please exercise common sense when dealing with anyone that says they will trade your profitable idea or help you automate/black box it. 9 times out of 10 they get your idea you get nothing.