Quote from FrankSlaughtery:
my own $0.02 usd is that quants/hft's/algo's/ufo's/whatever doesn't matter at all once you get past the micro scalping phase.
sector rotation is a multiweek strategy which by definition is not hft. you could trade this using closing prices only for crying out loud.
anyways don't mean to rant just to say traders should be afraid of something that doesn't exist.
and
LOL... so quants are going to mess up sector rotation? It's a matter of directly or indirectly tracking the business cycle. If quants can upset our business cycle then the tail is definitely wagging the dog..
Respectfully, the ignorance around HFT, AI and the fairly recent changes to the market micro-structures never ceases to amaze me. It shows how shallow some market participants are thinking about the market. I think some people need to look for implications much deeper than may be apparent initially. It is why I have given up talking much about what I have learned. I don't need anyone to agree with me, I am comfortable with my comments.
I wrote to the best trader I know and told him that the market was different several years ago. He also pooh poohed me, but several months later "got it" and revised his systems to adjust. He also thought that micro structure has no impact on macro structure. I think he would no longer hold that premise.
I didn't express myself well. quants don't mess up (I presume you mean change) sector rotation, the new methods of entering orders hides information better and makes decoding exactly what is happening more difficult. The longer it takes a trader to decode, the less potential profit there is.
Many recent things are related - disappearance of human Market Makers, reduction of volatility, exodus of retail traders, poor results of hedge funds, blowup of some prop shops - including some of the biggest BTW, etc fall out of thinking about the implications. Hopefully I have made my comments more clear.
I don't fear the changes, but I need to understand the implications to adapt. Simply that.