Sector Analysis Using Pure Price Action

[niko]

Quote from Gringo:

XLB couldn't continue up after DL break. It is showing weakness. I would keep an eye on it if someone likes trading sector ETF's or their underlying stocks.

Keep an eye on 43.5. If demand gets strong there then feel free to take precautions. For now weakness is in the air.

Gringo

My take is that XLB is at the top of the TC, so if mean reversion works you could expect the DL break to turn into something interesting.

 

[dbphoenix]

Quote from niko:

My take is that XLB is at the top of the TC, so if mean reversion works you could expect the DL break to turn into something interesting.

Not necessarily. If you look at the longer-term chart, this is less than a half-point above the mean.

 

[Gringo]

Is this what you meant Db? Price still being almost around the mean? I had forgotten about the larger TC. The tighter and more recent became the object of my focus. Although the short isn't bad it's still not where I thought it was in relation to previous price movement.

Gringo

 

[niko]

Quote from dbphoenix:

Not necessarily. If you look at the longer-term chart, this is less than a half-point above the mean.

Oh, that damn forest

 

[Gringo]

Quote from niko:

Oh, that damn forest

Worry not my friend. Believe in the line. The line tells the truth. There is only one truth, and that is: Break of line and Ret, and we are in business.

Just remember:

No forest from the tree
No land from the sea
To guage supply and demand
Only a line all we see


Gringo

 

[niko]

Quote from Gringo:

Worry not my friend. Believe in the line. The line tells the truth. There is only one truth, and that is: Break of line and Ret, and we are in business.

Just remember:

No forest from the tree
No land from the sea
To guage supply and demand
Only a line all we see


Gringo

Great poetry!

 

[Gringo]

Oil is still in that hinge identified some time back. The price is reaching the end of the hinge, and so far there hasn't been a resolution as to which side has the upper hand. Price could simply drift aimlessly out of here, without having a break out of any kind. Oil used to be the rage some time back and now it has become relatively mute because of lack of an exciting price move. Lets see how the future unfolds.

Oil Monthly:

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

XLB (Materials) is approaching the overbought supply line. The acceleration up has been remarkable. Except for the disappearance of volume, the rise in price has been almost unopposed.

Gringo

 

[Gringo]

The banking index is in a clear uptrend. Currently price is around the mean and might attempt to rise up to get to the overbought pink line. This is a weekly chart for the bigger picture. So far banking sector is strong, which usually means economy although may be scaring many, may continue to stay strong. Banking does get affected when the conditions change. Well, almost every index has an effect, but lets not jump the gun. The trend is up and when it gets weak we'll know.

For some reason the volume is sporadic at the bottom. It doesn't change the analysis though.

Gringo

 

[dbphoenix]

So far banking sector is strong, which usually means economy although may be scaring many, may continue to stay strong.

But then the strength appears to lie primarily in financials, technology, and healthcare.