Sector Analysis Using Pure Price Action

[Gringo]

Apple is another darling going through some rough time. There appears to be a hinge forming and it's resolution might give some indication as to the direction of price. There are a lot of conflicting signals for AAPL. To keep things in perspective the most recent action is the creation of the hinge and that's where I am focusing.

Gringo

 

[game]

Quote from Gringo:

Apple is another darling going through some rough time. There appears to be a hinge forming and it's resolution might give some indication as to the direction of price. There are a lot of conflicting signals for AAPL. To keep things in perspective the most recent action is the creation of the hinge and that's where I am focusing.

Gringo

Since the hinge is forming within a somewhat weak technical position (The two lower highs in Sept), would your tactics be more aggressive should it break to the downside, versus the upside?

 

[niko]

Quote from niko:

And the daily:

Some entries activated on friday.

XLE: LONG BIAS
XLU: DO NOTHING UNTIL HINGE IS EXITED.
XLF: LONG BIAS
XLB: LONG BIAS
XLP: DO NOTHING UNTIL 39 IS REACHED
XLY: WAIT FOR LONG ABOVE 61,20
XLI: DO NOTHING UNTIL SL IS BROKEN
XLK: DO NOTHING UNTIL SL IS BROKEN
XLV: LONG BIAS

No longer biased to the long side, most last swing lows were taken.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$SPX,XLY,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLF

 

[niko]

Xlu still in the hinge.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from game:

Since the hinge is forming within a somewhat weak technical position (The two lower highs in Sept), would your tactics be more aggressive should it break to the downside, versus the upside?

I am not interested in playing individual stocks. Still I keep an eye on them to ensure I am able to handle them if need be. The reason for looking at two big tech stocks was to put them in perspective in relation to XLK.

In case of AAPL were I playing it I would just follow price out of hinge whichever way it went. Please keep in mind that the retracement for the entire move from 400 to the current point is less than 50% and is still hanging in the upper part. So this all becomes a bit confusing hence focusing on the hinge removes all this doubt and uncertainty. Who knows which side actually will be more dominant when price breaks out? We know how to exit and when to exit using our rules and if that happens AAPL might only move a few points. Again AAPL isn't the best price action to really focus on but it's one of the more famous ones hence its inclusion.

Gringo

 

[niko]

Weekly update:

A lot of shorts must have been trapped, I just hope most of them are out by now.

SLs are mostly broken, but still no entries just yet.

 

[Gringo]

Niko,
You seem to have learned from the late night discussions about entries . There was a moment where you sounded Dbesque.

Gringo

 

[niko]

Quote from Gringo:

Niko,
You seem to have learned from the late night discussions about entries . There was a moment where you sounded Dbesque.

Gringo

Yep, this week was illuminating, so to speak. I have learned a lot, thanks for everything.

Which one of these sectors do you consider to be the one with the greatest potential.

 

[Gringo]

Quote from niko:

Yep, this week was illuminating, so to speak. I have learned a lot, thanks for everything.

Which one of these sectors do you consider to be the one with the greatest potential.

I've been really busy today so I'll answer if I can squeeze in the time. Otherwise there's almost always a tomorrow.

Gringo

 

[niko]

Ok, my reading is that a RET in XLV, XLE and XLY would offer the most potential being the ones farther away from the top of the channel.

For now I would avoid XLP (TR) and XLU (Hinge)