Section 7

trip said:
If I look to the left I see what I did try to illustrate (badly, I guess). There is a 20 point range with a mean of ~49. The range ended with something that might be a hinge (I don't have enough experience to classify it as such; it might be chop) with a mean of ~53. Upper limit of the range is 59 and lower limit is 38. If price returns into this range I am anticipating some hesistance at the upper limit, then a move down that gradually slows until we reach the mean. There might be some temporary back-and-forth movement at the mean of the could-be hinge at 53 along the way. Since price has spent much time in this range before I anticipate most "action" to be slow or grinding. A short entry would be at the upper limit (using one of my three defined entry rules). I would avoid entering in any direction close to the mean (but I do not yet have statistics on these "pictures"). .
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Your illustration is fine, but I don't want to assume that we're looking at the same thing in the same way.

You can ask yourself what it will mean if price returns to the range and behaves the way you suppose it might. Doing so might encourage you to drop the idea of trading reversals and trading ranges. Become proficient at one strategy -- such as rets after BOs -- before tackling another, like reversals.
 
dbphoenix said:
You can ask yourself what it will mean if price returns to the range and behaves the way you suppose it might.
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Yes, observing price and knowing when not to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade. I am not going to trade reversals or ranges.

I am diddling with too many things right now. I like to think I am still observing but at the same time I've been backtesting, documenting ideas (rules) in a plan, been looking for "straight line approach" trades in real time while in chat and so on.

What I need to do is study the theory more and just observe.
 
I haven't posted for a while as my focus has been on reading up on the basics once again. That other site is a veritable goldmine. It's an iterative process of sorts. So I'm still here, but silent.

Everybody - or so it seems - keeps saying how difficult a task this is, how much hard work is involved and some even point out how slim the chance of actual success is.

It worries me a little.

I don't find this very difficult. Tracking supply and demand is pretty straightforward. Doing it in real time is a bit more challenging as it's easy to become entangled in the micro view of the 1 minute chart. It's like developing tunnel vision for part of the chart as the day goes by. I guess more experience will help with this. I have problems identifying some balancing movements in real time but my backtesting says I don't need to know everything to come out ahead. There is room for mistakes.

Hard work? I am sitting here in my comfy office chair, a hot cup of tea by my side, soft music playing, watching several monitors with my favorite charts up. Backtesting takes time, it's tedious, sure, but "hard work"? I've been at it for hours today - like many weekends before - and could go on if it wasn't for my honey do's. This is pure fun. Mowing the lawn, now that is hard work.

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Then there's the probability of success part.

Given my thoughts above I've probably set the ground for an unpleasant surprise when I move this from the observing stage to the actual doing-something-about-it stage. Like it's impossible to succeed without failing badly first. Is it, really?

Have a great trading week everybody :).
 
trip said:
Given my thoughts above I've probably set the ground for an unpleasant surprise when I move this from the observing stage to the actual doing-something-about-it stage. Like it's impossible to succeed without failing badly first. Is it, really?
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Don't forget that there are five phases to this, not two.
 
trip said:
Given my thoughts above I've probably set the ground for an unpleasant surprise when I move this from the observing stage to the actual doing-something-about-it stage. Like it's impossible to succeed without failing badly first. Is it, really?
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Don't forget that there are five phases to this, not two.
 
trip said:
Niko suggested we set a goal for the week.
Excellent idea.
My goal for the coming week is to totally grok scratching.
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That never happened. Events beyond my control forced me take what has now become a far too long hiatus.

I did learn a few things though.

I can't do this part time. I tried to follow the market and the "SLA journals" as best as I could - an hour now and then. That didn't work. It's got to be full time or not at all. One has to really be here.

Also, it's sometimes difficult to understand the journals since there is also an information exchange in the chat room which provides part of the context.

So the time I had to spare went into reading Mamis "When to sell". I figure that will come in handy if this perpetual bull market ever comes to an end.

Anyway, now I'm back with a straight line in hand.
 
Hi Trip,

I haven't seen your journal before and read the first post or two. Is this different than SLA or is the section 7 title now misleading?
 
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