"How can you know if it's obvious?" It's just a question I ask myself before I put on some trades. The answer is you can't for sure, just like everything else. It's just something I like to think about. Part of the creativity of trading. You might think of it as a market that is overextended and ripe for a pull back. Like housing in 2007. Or 2004. Hehe. Happens in all TF's though.