Secret edge , loophole .....

Surprise · Mar 6, 2011

Quote from NoDoji:

I have no problem losing to anyone because I lose less often than I win and again, in case you didn't catch it the first time, my max loss is half my minimum gain.

Surprise:

Do you trade for a living? YES

Do you believe it's possible to trade without ever losing? (Don't laugh, guys, because there's at least one ET member here, dejavu, who believes this.)

NO

Do you understand that "edge" in trading means any advantage that produces consistent profitability?
YES
Are you aware that you can have a win rate of 25% or less and make a good living trading?
YES

But this is irrelevant to this thread , i think there is some misunderstanding here ...

trefoil · Mar 6, 2011

Quote from BSAM:

These threads are funnier than a Northwestern University sex show.

Need it be said again? Oh, apparently. But, according to generally accepted statistics, only 5 out of the next 100 to read this post, will grasp it. (Which, actually, is a good thing.)

MARKETS DO THE SAME THINGS OVER AND OVER AND OVER.

Well.....
An integral part of my core system (which of course has three parts to it), is a fourth parameter for taking account of the changing types of markets that come along. I was doing a quick & dirty backtest last night using TOS charts, applying my default system to a new instrument, preparatory to some more detailed work, where when I started out, with said fourth parameter disabled, P&L came in at minus 3k. Enabling it to the default value got me to something like 10k. Tweaking it around (curve-fitting? Maybe. Further testing will of course let me know.) got that number up to 14k.
In my experience, you have to take account of the type of market you're in, and that goes beyond just volatility, although volatility is certainly a major part of it. Point being that the way people trade depends on the overall market environment.
Long term, we are in a market that resembles 1998, it's true. That's not a permanent condition though.

Fireplace · Mar 6, 2011

'Surprise', either work harder and smarter and find something that works consistently or accept the fact that there are others who have a higher understanding of how markets operate.

ElectricSavant · Mar 6, 2011

When I played Texas Hold em' I made it to the intermediate level...but there was always somebody better...(some players even started avoiding me)

In Trading if one has an edge...be it an intermediate edge...they can make some money..

ES

Quote from Fireplace:

'Surprise', either work harder and smarter or accept the fact that there are others who have a higher understanding of how markets operate.

NoDoji · Mar 6, 2011

Quote from Surprise:

But this is irrelevant to this thread , i think there is some misunderstanding here ...

OK, let's get back to the key concepts presented in your original post:

Quote from Surprise:

Making a living in the markets requires that you identify and react to the behaviour of others, not analyzing patterns and using indicators to time trades.

Many of us are correct in direction and premise on our winning trades but still end up donating to the market. This is the a result of the trader on the other side having the ability to wear us down and force an error. "

Judging by all the systems/methods and discussions on FF, very few traders think about the person on the other side of their trade (ok we know its the broker but their prices come from the interbank of competing traders). This is the single most important factor in trading imo and will often decide the outcome of your success.

Can you provide some real-life examples where you or someone you know...

...identified and reacted to the behaviour of others to extract a profit from the market?

...was correct in direction and premise on a trade, but ended up donating to the market?

...thought about the person on the other side of your/their trade and profited from that thought?

I'm really curious about this, because I'm a pure technical trader who couldn't care less about who bought a contract from me or sold a contract to me. I'm just playing the part of the casino in a game of probabilities and looking to profit from an edge in my favor.

Fireplace · Mar 6, 2011

who said that this or these 'patterns' would be so clear so that ANYONE and EVERYONE will be able to see and profit?

You said they can't possibly exist and I'm saying they DO but require extensive research, application and a willingness to keep trying. Most give up before being able to be in a position of reaching higher levels of understanding.

Quote from Surprise:

static clear pattern on the chart that everyone could follow and make money , there is no such thing

ElectricSavant · Mar 6, 2011

NoDoji,

Quote of the day...(can I use this?)

ES

I'm just playing the part of the casino in a game of probabilities and looking to profit from an edge in my favor.

Surprise · Mar 6, 2011

Quote from NoDoji:

OK, let's get back to the key concepts presented in your original post:

Can you provide some real-life examples where you or someone you know...

( Not me )

...identified and reacted to the behaviour of others to extract a profit from the market?

( Locals in the pit , Algos ...)

...was correct in direction and premise on a trade, but ended up donating to the market?

( Happens all the time u get stopped then the market goes your direction ...)

...thought about the person on the other side of your/their trade and profited from that thought?

( order flow traders , locals , algos ( detecting some behavior in the order book ) , insider traders , front runners ..... )

I'm really curious about this, because I'm a pure technical trader who couldn't care less about who bought a contract from me or sold a contract to me. I'm just playing the part of the casino in a game of probabilities and looking to profit from an edge in my favor

( I have no problem with this )

.

The original post as i stated b4 is not mine but i found it useful ...

jack hershey · Mar 6, 2011

Quote from Surprise:

What r u talking about ? There is no dilemma for me and there is no disrespect to anyone here including yourself and nodoji ...
Your strategy is not static clear pattern on the chart that everyone could follow and make money , there is no such thing . You r faster than others u know what u r doing .

Regards .

You are repeating that you do not recognize your dilemma. You are stuck.

The static clear pattern is R2R 2B 2R for short and B2B 2R 2B for long. as you see it is one pattern expressing an ordr of events simply using B for balck and R for red on any display that shows a color coded bar display where either of the two translation cases for adjacent bars is occurring. Translation for black bar is HH's and HL's. For the red bar case the translation is LL's and LH's. There are 8 other adjacent cases whereby the bars are merged into one bar equivalent.

All fractals nest and are interlocked using the pattern. Thus the theme is order of events which emerges as one and only one pattern. Since the order of events is certain and a binary vector this demands that all markets are defined by finite mathematics. and that only deductive reasoning may be applied and inductive reasoning is the wrong mathematical application.

Volume precedes price and all price turns occur at volume extremes known as peaks and troughs. For the three moves of the pattern there are 4 peaks and troughs always in the following order of events: Peak, trough, peak trough, peak>>peak, trough, peak, trough, peak. the ending and beginning peaks are common events to consecutive patterns. Long and short patterns alternate.

Go through the process of breaking your dilemma by drawing the alternatin patterns on a chart until you can do it unconsciously.

Surprise · Mar 6, 2011

Quote from jack hershey:

You are repeating that you do not recognize your dilemma. You are stuck.

The static clear pattern is R2R 2B 2R for short and B2B 2R 2B for long. as you see it is one pattern expressing an ordr of events simply using B for balck and R for red on any display that shows a color coded bar display where either of the two translation cases for adjacent bars is occurring. Translation for black bar is HH's and HL's. For the red bar case the translation is LL's and LH's. There are 8 other adjacent cases whereby the bars are merged into one bar equivalent.

All fractals nest and are interlocked using the pattern. Thus the theme is order of events which emerges as one and only one pattern. Since the order of events is certain and a binary vector this demands that all markets are defined by finite mathematics. and that only deductive reasoning may be applied and inductive reasoning is the wrong mathematical application.

Volume precedes price and all price turns occur at volume extremes known as peaks and troughs. For the three moves of the pattern there are 4 peaks and troughs always in the following order of events: Peak, trough, peak trough, peak>>peak, trough, peak, trough, peak. the ending and beginning peaks are common events to consecutive patterns. Long and short patterns alternate.

Go through the process of breaking your dilemma by drawing the alternatin patterns on a chart until you can do it unconsciously.

Good luck for u , thanks for your post anyway ...