second wave markets crash

[martingalaj]

i think we retake crash of 2008

next days i try to give my justification

 

[HATEtheRisk]

Quote from martingalaj:

i think we retake crash of 2008

next days i try to give my justification

why ???
for what reasons ???
how many crashes did you predict correcty ???

i hope for every new crash, so long it dosnt kill the worl economics and forces the countries to world war III.
Crashes are very healthy for the markets, after that always comes an upswing.

 

[optionman31601]

Currently..looking like head and shoulders accured in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 and Bear Flag is in Progress, breaking down now!

 

[martingalaj]

FIRST REASON:
from top 2008 (before crash)
sp and dow today are in the same level (max up was 11%)
just nasdaq reach more gains

but usd down at today
-17% vs chf
-28% vs jpy

so stocks in chf and jpy terms NEVER recover level of 2008

what means?
i think is very probably we see max level of stocks and after some consolidation 1 or 2 months more retake big down

 

[martingalaj]

Quote from optionman31601:

Currently..looking like head and shoulders accured in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 and Bear Flag is in Progress, breaking down now!

true we see second shouldar from 09-20 at today

i dont have that info but would be very interesting see index of sp+dow+nasdaq to determinate neck of s-h-s formation

level of start of crash is to me:
minimum of sp and dow and nasdaq if broke that level crash start again
minimun was 08.08.2011 in 3 instruments

 

[martingalaj]

next days very bullish stocks
aud touch weekly sup
jpy and usd probably retrace

so this week is countertrend to me (bullish)

 

[martingalaj]

aud ,nzd and cad rise against usd

just eur and gbp down a bit

in conclusion the drop of usd was the reason of stocks us up (remember just nasdaq raise 11% in .... usd)

after crash 2008 , sotcks rise 2009-2010 and part of 2011

is very probably to me at least see important correction or 2 wave of crash

 

[martingalaj]

sorry i try to say the down of usd explain gains in % of stocks
if usd had not fallen then stocks NEVER recover levels of august 2008 (before crash september-october-nov-dec of 2008)

my english is bad sorry

the idea is simple , stocks of us technically after 3 years of rise cant return at 2008 levels before crash
so, thats it

 

[martingalaj]

about targets

aj target optimistic (NO CRASH just correction)
57.50 -59 level (more than 1500 pips of down) today quote 74.67

crash stage ...... aj broke lowest value 2008 55.20 and go to.....
35-40 level


stocks:
optimistic dow 7600 -7700 level
crash 4500-5000?



:eek:

 

[martingalaj]

another reason:
see down of commodities and gold

gold down 20%!!! from 1920 to 1532 in 17 days!!

rise of usd explain part of this movement
usd rise 8% average against majors

september is savage!