Second Depression Averted Due to Bailouts: Study

[nazzdack]

Quote from olias:
----But I tend to think these studies are more or less correct. Look, we are in a mess now. Where would we be without the government stimulus?
----At least they 'delayed' the great depression and (perhaps) given the country a chance to right itself.

1) Newborn baby kittens could have come up with the idea for "stimulus". It's better to make the analogy of the fire department arriving at the fire after the fire has burned itself out OR closing the barn doors after the animals have escaped. Governement stood by while the crisis unfolded AND set the stage for it to happen.
2) The first few years of each decade tend to be "bad". The latter, several years of each decade tend to be "good". We're approaching those expected "bad" years with horrible fundamentals. We'll see if the future "conforms" to the past. :eek:

 

[joneog]

How can you have any idea what would have happened? Is there some parallel universe to ours they observed where they didn't use any stimulus that I don't know about?

Who knows, if we didn't stimulate the economy maybe the Sun would have exploded or there would have been a nuclear holocaust. So I guess good thing we had that stimulus.

One day we're going to stop treating economists like scientists...

 

[fkbsuhites]

Bush pulled the 1 Trillion transfer of middle class wealth to his handful of campaign donors out of his stinking ass

Obama is a Bush lite. His administration policies are a veritable extension of the Bush administration. The only difference are the faces. Obama is a Republican who figured he would never be able to get anywhere given the numbers of racists inside the Republican party so he decided to infiltrate the Democratic party.

Foreign lobbyists and domestic unamerican financial terrorists run US foreign and domestic policies with the blessing of the unamerican Evangelical lunatic fags who want a global meltdown so their fantasy god can come and give them some rapture.

The middle class has given up and the only ones fighting to "bring about change" are the foreign lobbyists, domestic terrorists and the satanic nut wings. These parasites have sucked the blood out of the middle class. Now they're going for the flesh. The US is F'd.

 

[ralph00]

Mark Zandi is auditioning for a position for Larry Summers' or Ben Bernanke's job in the future, nothing more. His 'studies' and pronouncements are of no value.

 

[Daal]

Quote from morganist:

I would say more postponed than averted.

Nothing prevents the private sector from delevering during a period of low growth in the next several years

 

[Arnie]

One of the "benefits" of a recession is that you get rid of some of what caused the preceeding run up in growth, whether its cheap credit or over capacity of production. The recession weeds this out...companies go under. When growth eventually comes back, and it always does, you have fertile ground for new co's to grow. What the Fed and the govt have done is engineered a hybrid that has all the pain and none of the "benefits". They really have just delayed the inevitable. Only next time it will be a lot worse.

 

[zboy2854A]

There's a very good reason economics is called the "dismal science". Ooh, someone has a 'complex quantitative model' that they say proves an economic theory? Kind of like those Nobel winning economists and their quantitative models who drove Long Term Capital Management into the hot magma core of the earth and nearly took down the financial system? LOL

 

[nutmeg]

If a business needs seasonal cash (credit) to get you through the normal dry spell.

Do you think a business would need more cash than in previous years?

Do you think the seasonal dry spell would be longer than normal?

Now if the answer is yes, what postion are the lenders going to take?

The lenders will probably offer less credit and shorter period of time.

Now does the business take what they can get and hope for the best?

How is a business going to qualify for more money with lower revenues and projections?

 

[LEAPup]

Quote from MohdSalleh:

many traders at prop firms are already in a depression since beginning 2009

Amen! Agreed!

I'm a RIA, and still have my Series 7 (which I'm about to drop so I can rid myself if FINRA), and can ASSURE you that it's been a major league depression for brokers! Especially one's like me who came into the business at the start of the tech bust.

It took a while to get investor confidence back after the bust, and 2004, 05, 06, and 07 were good moneywise.

Since the 2008-now mess, it's been an absolute depression, and I wonder if investor confidence is ever going to come back around... I feel for the people who retired in 99-2000, rolling over their 401(k)'s which were in mutual funds into IRA's with more mutual funds. We all know how "well" mutual fund managers have done through the crash...:eek:

 

[olias]

Quote from nutmeg:

If a business needs seasonal cash (credit) to get you through the normal dry spell.

Do you think a business would need more cash than in previous years?

Do you think the seasonal dry spell would be longer than normal?

Now if the answer is yes, what postion are the lenders going to take?

The lenders will probably offer less credit and shorter period of time.

Now does the business take what they can get and hope for the best?

How is a business going to qualify for more money with lower revenues and projections?

Do they want to take a chance on that business folding?