second bull leg

are we entering a new bull leg?

  • yes, once 1300 is broken

    Votes: 4 16.7%

  • no, we are going down after 1280

    Votes: 11 45.8%

  • i hope that new firm gets the blonde for afternoon entertainment....

    Votes: 9 37.5%
  • Total voters
    24
Quote from TheCaracal:

Also not many serious market declines have started from a P/E of 14.7, and an earnings yield of close to 7%

And for all the talk of a bear market, the SP dropped 7.5%, well within the paramaters of a
correction...

Add to that , that the market has been essentially the same price on balance for over a year..allowed the E to catch the P...hardly irrational, in fact cautious.

just some observations,

more info needed for the bears
More...

Not long ago, say 30 years ago a PE of 15 was considered high, 8 was low.

Their is so much accounting manipulation of earnings I never have relied on PE or any other wallstreet figure used to justify something fundamentals are lagging indicators.

All that matters is price.
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

If you go by historical data, a 15 p/e is considered fair value.
More...

I believe that the median historical P/E of the S&P 500 for the past 132 years is roughly 11.

The median P/E ratio of the S&P 500 for the past 50 years, from 1955 - 2005 = 17.
 
Quote from myminitrading:

Not long ago, say 30 years ago a PE of 15 was considered high, 8 was low.

Their is so much accounting manipulation of earnings I never have relied on PE or any other wallstreet figure used to justify something fundamentals are lagging indicators.

All that matters is price.
More...

Were you not the person who just asked what the current P/E was for the S&P 500?
Asked and answered my friend.

And yet you then criticize the operating earnings number saying that it is manipulated . . . only to then claim that in the end all that matters is price.

If so, then why even ask what the P/E of the S&P is in the first place?

Seems like you are only interested in data that serves to bolster your bearish opinion of the market, and nothing else.
 
if we break the 1290 resistence, and follow-through to 1300, all hell will break loose. i thin kthe short squeeze alone will take us past 1326.
 
The current PE ratio, looking at it on an absolute historical term, seems fair to low. A quandary for investors to consider regarding the current situation is that many market tops in the past HAVE occurred during the so-called low PE points, which were preceeded by robust earnings growth periods. This is patently because the market cap. appreciations of those eras had been supported by even stronger earnings growth, but they were then followed by sharp drops in earnings. Likewise, many market bottoms have exhibited high P/Es because earnings dropped sharper than the mrk cps of stocks. Considering that the current market expansion has been supported more by the labor productivity than the labor growth, any slow down of the former will inevitably undermine the current economic growth. Exactly how many documents can a back office monkey (B.O.M) process per hour without starting to undermine the quality of his work, unless there is another leap in technology?
 
You must admit, just last week the Dow was in the same spot it was in Jan 2004. Today it is 600 points above that level.

If you take a step back and get your nose off the glass, in reality the Dow has been moving sideways with an ever so slight upward bias. If 10700 breaks you can bet this ever so slight upward bias will change in a hurry.

Earnings have peaked, consumers are gasping for air, corporations must pick up the slack. Next quarters earniings may yield evidence of the earnings peak. Some evidence has been displayed all ready, MMM,UPS,DELL,INTC.
 

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