second bull leg

[myminitrading]

Quote from krazykarl:

there is a lot of action on the near 130 spy calls. I think this bull move is for real.

It may be, but when they gap open stocks on a rise overnight in the futures on ultra thin volume makes it a tad suspect.

I am more inclined to think its liquidation of longs and rolling into short positions.

All week the futures were up big overnight on thin thin volume, cash market opens and pop! then a slight rise, and then drift lower all day. That seems like liquidation, not accumulation.

accumulation would be a gap lower in the morning and a slow steady rise all day, rinse and repeat.

Bet the market holds todays gains, why? because everyone thinks it will fall like it has all week.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from HolyGrail:

There is only one guaranteed certainty as far as I'm concerned. If I am wrong it won't be the first nor the last time.

You may very well be right. Those options could be part of bear call spreads. One just never knows.

i agree that we need another week of follow-through to establish a trend, but i've been trying to tweak my signals to move from detecting "we're in the middle of a trend" to "we've just started".

if the market is a dog then options and futures are the nose.

 

[myminitrading]

Quote from myminitrading:

It may be, but when they gap open stocks on a rise overnight in the futures on ultra thin volume makes it a tad suspect.

I am more inclined to think its liquidation of longs and rolling into short positions.

All week the futures were up big overnight on thin thin volume, cash market opens and pop! then a slight rise, and then drift lower all day. That seems like liquidation, not accumulation.

accumulation would be a gap lower in the morning and a slow steady rise all day, rinse and repeat.

Bet the market holds todays gains, why? because everyone thinks it will fall like it has all week.

Also Monday is month end.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from myminitrading:

It may be, but when they gap open stocks on a rise overnight in the futures on ultra thin volume makes it a tad suspect.

i agree - i've seen that move before and personally think it's one element of market manipulation - but that's not what we had today.

when there is a gap on light volume and there is heavy index futures action there is a bull trap being set. today, we have intra-day follow-through - this is key and it shows conviction, en mass, for the current trend. IMKO. (in my krazy opinion)

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from myminitrading:



Bet the market holds todays gains, why? because everyone thinks it will fall like it has all week.

fall? it's up this week more then any week since jan.

 

[HolyGrail]

OK, here is a case for the bulls.

The last low on the S&P occurred on July 18th.

Since that low the bulk of the money has been flowing into the following sectors.

Computer based systems 11.34%
Personal computers 11.27%
Electronic equipment 11.25%
Auto Manufacturing 10.13%
Drugs 9.8%
Foreign banks 9.77%
Textiles 9.15%

This is not exactly what I would call moving to safety before a crash.

 

[TheCaracal]

Also not many serious market declines have started from a P/E of 14.7, and an earnings yield of close to 7%

And for all the talk of a bear market, the SP dropped 7.5%, well within the paramaters of a
correction...

Add to that , that the market has been essentially the same price on balance for over a year..allowed the E to catch the P...hardly irrational, in fact cautious.

just some observations,

more info needed for the bears

 

[Landis82]

Quote from TheCaracal:

Also not many serious market declines have started from a P/E of 14.7, and an earnings yield of close to 7%

And for all the talk of a bear market, the SP dropped 7.5%, well within the paramaters of a
correction...

Add to that , that the market has been essentially the same price on balance for over a year..allowed the E to catch the P...hardly irrational, in fact cautious.

Exactly!
It's difficult to look for a crash when the S&P is trading at a touch under 15 times earnings . . . Meanwhile the "E" portion has continued to grow.

Also of note, the market just finished its best WEEKLY PERFORMANCE since November of 2004.
The 1280.38 weekly highs of July 2nd is just a few ticks away.
10-year Treasury yield drops from 5.04 to 4.99 today.

The market is "talking" to us.
It's just a matter of whether or not you are listening . . .

 

[myminitrading]

Quote from TheCaracal:

Also not many serious market declines have started from a P/E of 14.7, and an earnings yield of close to 7%

And for all the talk of a bear market, the SP dropped 7.5%, well within the paramaters of a
correction...

Add to that , that the market has been essentially the same price on balance for over a year..allowed the E to catch the P...hardly irrational, in fact cautious.

just some observations,

more info needed for the bears

Is that a forward PE? is so how far out

 

[Landis82]

Quote from myminitrading:

Is that a forward PE? is so how far out