Quote from kashirin:
so you really think market collapse has nothing to do with fundamentals but only with uptick rule?
all is good and we just need an uptick rule?
shorting was banned for several weeks in October with all banking stocks
much better than uptick rule you advocate
volatility still was huge. and stock market was down
It's not so much that I advocate uptick rule, as I tend to agree with some of the points about market efficiency and distortions imposed by up-tick rule.
The issue I have is with the methodology they used to argue that removal of the rule would have no impact on market volatility. If you go back and read the actual studies and pilot program that gave the green light, I think you'll find that it was very poorly conceived and horrendously biased. For one, anyone that understands out of sample testing and mining bias, knows that you don't conveniently pick a small window of low volatility to draw conclusions about the future inference of any hypothesis.
The mere fact that volatility wasn't explosive for the past 20+yrs since 87 should have been a simple enough argument to use the 'if it ain't broke don't fix it' principle. Of course, right after they put their fix in, the market imploded
(coincidentally perhaps, but about 80 yrs earlier than expected by any probabilistic model). And to simultaneously remove the 80A collar at the same instant was obviously not a bright idea in retrospect.
One has to wonder if it was only sheer ineptitude that generated the combined timing of these decisions.
Would bringing it back help? Hard to say, now that the damage has been done, but I do agree with Landis that it would certainly slow down the velocity and provide some damping if not a short jolt to the upside.