Historically September is strong, but not this year so far.
Seasonal tendency so far not playing out in gold
- Thread starter blakpacman
- Start date
I'm reminded of the old Jake Bernstein late night infomercials telling you that you simply buy on this date and sell on that date to make an "easy" seasonal tendency profit ... not.
1) Statistics can be "deceiving".
2) You have to be cognizant of the entire data sample, not just the average. :eek:
3) The intra-month volatility can shake you out of "good" positions.
4) According to the bar-data; November, December AND January, combined, might be the real "high" probability and "high" magnitude trade. We'll see.
5) Gold doesn't have well-defined, production-constrained, seasonal tendencies the same as other agricultural/edible commodities.
6) That "thing" in India where they buy a lot of gold in the Fall might still be on the horizon.
1) Are you talkin' to me?
2) If the gains from the 6 times gold went up GREATLY exceed the losses of the 2 times it went down, then it was good....in the past. :eek:
3) September, this year, by itself, could be a "stinker". Are you able to wait 12 months for the trade to come about again next year without regret?
The reason I posted when I did was that I saw gold right at the up trendline from late June lows. I had a vague feeling that it wasn't going to hold. Overnight futures again looking fairly ugly in precious metals land. Seems that the June to August rally was driven primarily by short covering in the futures markets as noted in the COT report.
gold/silver will bounce back hard but first shake out all the longs that wear tinfoil hats and bury gold in their backyard and buy bitcoins
major capitulation. cnbc all day asked if gold can go lower
#1 gold bull john paulson reduced his gold position by 50% in Q2 and that was probably him selling the rest of his position every day this week
however , longrun gold to go back down to the historical price of "the price of an average suit" which is only a couple bucks
especially in the context of stock market hitting all time highs and bonds down
There was a gold bubble when there were vending machines spitting out gold bars
major capitulation. cnbc all day asked if gold can go lower
#1 gold bull john paulson reduced his gold position by 50% in Q2 and that was probably him selling the rest of his position every day this week
however , longrun gold to go back down to the historical price of "the price of an average suit" which is only a couple bucks
especially in the context of stock market hitting all time highs and bonds down
There was a gold bubble when there were vending machines spitting out gold bars