Seasonal spreads
- Thread starter hrokling
- Start date
"There are also certain patterns where there's a movement towards the turning points I'm using for entries, where it's possible to enter a reverse position to take benefit of the move before. And this also goes for when the move ends. Lot's of opportunities."
Hrok,
Could you expand on the above?
Best,
J-Law
Hrok,
Could you expand on the above?
Best,
J-Law
What I meant here, is that the seasonality I'm trying to exploit also brings additional opportunities: In the period leading up to my entry, and the period after my exit. Meaning; counter-trades before and after. Sorry it wasn't too clear. I am not to keen to check for examples, but I distinctly recall this to apply to the calendar spreads in RBOB as well as the RB vs HO spreads in December.
Yes, I follow. I C what you are saying.
A seasonal spread may call for a bull spread on a particular date. However, the chart is in a downtrend and presents an opportunity to go short, cover & either go long on intended date or wait for a setup on the long side to go with the original seasonal. & the reverse on the end of a move like you mentioned.
Requires one to be nimble and not locked into preconceived views. Def lots of opps out there.
Thanks for responding,
J-Law
A seasonal spread may call for a bull spread on a particular date. However, the chart is in a downtrend and presents an opportunity to go short, cover & either go long on intended date or wait for a setup on the long side to go with the original seasonal. & the reverse on the end of a move like you mentioned.
Requires one to be nimble and not locked into preconceived views. Def lots of opps out there.
Thanks for responding,
J-Law
Time for some action again:
Bought 1 Jun RB RBOB Gasoline / Sold 1 Jun HO Heating Oil @ 0.0315
Bought 1 Jul RB RBOB Gasoline / Sold 1 Jul HO Heating Oil @ 0.0310
I did leg in, so in the June my entry is quite favourable. Looking to hold for about 1.5 months, with my Profit Target for Jun at 0.0410 and Jul at 0.0370. Since no limit orders are accepted I will have to pay attention to get out.
I am watching a few other setups now, although some of them are early days. I have a May / Nov ZS spread planned in March, but it seems like it bottomed a month ago and has run quite far. If it comes down again I'll jump in, otherwise I think I've missed it.
Bought 1 Jun RB RBOB Gasoline / Sold 1 Jun HO Heating Oil @ 0.0315
Bought 1 Jul RB RBOB Gasoline / Sold 1 Jul HO Heating Oil @ 0.0310
I did leg in, so in the June my entry is quite favourable. Looking to hold for about 1.5 months, with my Profit Target for Jun at 0.0410 and Jul at 0.0370. Since no limit orders are accepted I will have to pay attention to get out.
I am watching a few other setups now, although some of them are early days. I have a May / Nov ZS spread planned in March, but it seems like it bottomed a month ago and has run quite far. If it comes down again I'll jump in, otherwise I think I've missed it.
hrok - how did you time your entry for the above spread, please ? I can see you're a couple of weeks early compared to the book, but also 6 weeks later than MRCI's 2008 rec entry (which includes data for 2007/8). Am I correct in thinking you do not subscribe to MRCI's online service, but do use the scarrtrading site ?
TIA.
J.
Yes, you're right - I'm not a subscriber to MRCI's online service. I do use Scarrtrading, but unfortunately it doesn't support the RBOB contract!
The timing was simply from watching the chart of the spread, it did have a serious bounce up right before I got in. I'm currently in the red, but we'll see how it turns out. And obviously I had a date preplanned - Feb 10th I believe (don't have my paperwork in front of me).
The timing was simply from watching the chart of the spread, it did have a serious bounce up right before I got in. I'm currently in the red, but we'll see how it turns out. And obviously I had a date preplanned - Feb 10th I believe (don't have my paperwork in front of me).
OK, I've completely gone ahead and missed an entry now - I had the following spread for Feb 17th, but have been watching it on and off for a few weeks:
Long Jun ZT 10-Year Note / Short Jun ZB 30-Year Bond
This was at around 93.500-94.000 a few weeks ago, and it's been climbing very nicely. It's now currently at 98.000 so if I buy around here I'm buying a short-term high. I will look for a chance to enter later, as I have my exit planned for April 20th.
Long Jun ZT 10-Year Note / Short Jun ZB 30-Year Bond
This was at around 93.500-94.000 a few weeks ago, and it's been climbing very nicely. It's now currently at 98.000 so if I buy around here I'm buying a short-term high. I will look for a chance to enter later, as I have my exit planned for April 20th.
you are quiet - how are things going?
I'm curious to know if anyone here uses MRCI for outright positions and what their level of success has been? From what I can see, if a trader sorts through the monthly strategies and does some technical due diligence on a particular setup, then the results look very promising. However, entering any of these trades in a blind fashion could result in some steep and sudden losses.