Interesting thread. Do you see any opportunity with Dec07/July08 Wheat?
Seasonal spreads
- Thread starter hrokling
- Start date
This week I've been kind of busy, and ill at the same time. But basicly, the Heating Oil position went through my stoploss which was at 0.1200. I tried using limit orders to get out of the spread, but there was no buying and I didn't get filled until Wednesday 26th at 0.0970. So, basicly 4.000 usd of profits evaporated, and it would have been possible to get out at at least 0.1150 after the stoploss hit - which would have left at least around 1.500 usd to show for. This is quite emberrassing, really. And great: Now that I check it I see it's bounced back up to 0.1100.
So anyway:
Sold 2 Dec 07, Bought 2 May 08 HO Heating Oil @ 0.0970 - CLOSED - PROFIT 84 usd
And here is the tally at the end of September:
As you can see, it's quiet at the moment.
So anyway:
Sold 2 Dec 07, Bought 2 May 08 HO Heating Oil @ 0.0970 - CLOSED - PROFIT 84 usd
And here is the tally at the end of September:
As you can see, it's quiet at the moment.
Hi J-Law,
You can see from the latest update what my best trades have been. In raw profit the Oats vs Corn trade was a homerun, but Eurodollars, Natural Gas and RBOB Gasoline have been good as well.
From the closed trades, the statistics are as follows:
71% Profitable trades
Avg. winner: 1.493
Avg. loser: 1.419
You can see from the latest update what my best trades have been. In raw profit the Oats vs Corn trade was a homerun, but Eurodollars, Natural Gas and RBOB Gasoline have been good as well.
From the closed trades, the statistics are as follows:
71% Profitable trades
Avg. winner: 1.493
Avg. loser: 1.419
hrokling,
Sorry to hear that you have been ill, I wish you a quick, full recovery.
Regarding heating oil I have a similar spread going: HO Mar08/Dec07. According to MRCI it was stopped out but I kept it (currently at a small loss) because it almost perfectly traces the 15 year seasonal chart and according to the 15 and 5 year chart it shows tremendous potential. It might be a good time to get into, something to consider.
Regarding soy meal I have the same spread on, also entered early. It is almost at the top level of the 15 year chart but looking at the 2003 and 1996 chart where it exploded to the upside it could generate a nice profit.
All the best
Sorry to hear that you have been ill, I wish you a quick, full recovery.
Regarding heating oil I have a similar spread going: HO Mar08/Dec07. According to MRCI it was stopped out but I kept it (currently at a small loss) because it almost perfectly traces the 15 year seasonal chart and according to the 15 and 5 year chart it shows tremendous potential. It might be a good time to get into, something to consider.
Regarding soy meal I have the same spread on, also entered early. It is almost at the top level of the 15 year chart but looking at the 2003 and 1996 chart where it exploded to the upside it could generate a nice profit.
All the best
I've also entered the other way in Heating Oil:
Long 1 May 08, Short 1 Dec 07 HO Heating Oil @ -0.0850
I've got another contract offered at 0.1000 if it's to make yet another pop, but I doubt it'll happen.
The whole thing with Heating Oil bugs me at the moment - I missed the perfect opportunity at 0.1400 to exit the long and reverse the position. Hindsight is a beautiful thing - and this trade I'm entering only because I've got it planned, I don't really like the level.
Another observation I've made is that it seems the spreads in energies right now is about 2 weeks early mesured against history.
Long 1 May 08, Short 1 Dec 07 HO Heating Oil @ -0.0850
I've got another contract offered at 0.1000 if it's to make yet another pop, but I doubt it'll happen.
The whole thing with Heating Oil bugs me at the moment - I missed the perfect opportunity at 0.1400 to exit the long and reverse the position. Hindsight is a beautiful thing - and this trade I'm entering only because I've got it planned, I don't really like the level.
Another observation I've made is that it seems the spreads in energies right now is about 2 weeks early mesured against history.
Hello and thank you for sharing your spreads trading journal. I have a question if you do not mind - What do you think of the seasonals research done by MRCI and do you actually understand how those charts are being constructed?
There are a few other calendar spreads that MRCI apprently does not have, so I wonder for those particular spreads ... how else can we try and find the seasonalities.
Your comments are appreciated, thanks again.
There are a few other calendar spreads that MRCI apprently does not have, so I wonder for those particular spreads ... how else can we try and find the seasonalities.
Your comments are appreciated, thanks again.