Seasonal spreads
- Thread starter hrokling
- Start date
Hi Kahai:
If I give you a suggestion, then it means I am making a recommendation. I am very reluctant to do this based on my past experiences. Your trading pattern or style with a particular Broker in a Brokerage firm may be different from mine.
My advice is to search and get a backup Broker for your electronic trading, if that is your main trading medium. It's always advisable to have such a backup because platforms can fail, there could be power failure or you could be trading with inaccurate data. In fact, anything can happen to your only Brokerage firm.
Your Backup Broker is a form of insurance to protect you and your trades.
Magna
Administrator
This thread was intended to chronicle the seasonal spread trades of hrokling. While a conversation regarding his trades and strategies is welcome, there will be no further discussion of newsletters. It is inappropriate and in violation of ET's No Free Advertising policy. Thank you all for your cooperation.
Magna
Magna
After chasing the Wheat spread with limit orders for a couple of weeks, and sitting through a "massive" (relative) drawdown I closed the last 3 contracts of the spread today:
Sold 3 May 08, Bought 3 Sep 07 ZW Wheat @ -14 1/4
The average price of the total five contracts was -10.55:
Sold 5 May 08, Bought 5 Sep 07 ZW Wheat @ -10.55 - CLOSED - LOSS 3.063 usd.
I'm unfortunately in a bit of a hurry, and see there's four pages to read, but I only have time to say this important thing: The stoploss here was GROSSLY VIOLATED!!!! Now you can hound me, call me a bad trader, or whatever you want
It worked out in the end, but the September Wheat could have continued to soar and the dog May contract could have stayed without attention for 3 more weeks, at which point one (I) would have been forced to close it at -30, -40 and so on... You get the picture.
A brief comment on the energies: The gasoline spreads have been lingering around stoploss for quite a while. The Heating Oil has been down around stoploss, but it's kind of bounced back and is just so illiquid (wide). If it continues down below the 0.500-0.600 area I will kill it - it's been kept since I plan to keep it until Oct 11th.
I'll try to post more in the weekend - the last couple of weeks have been so busy in equities that I have only casually watched the spreads.
EDIT: And yes, I really do hope September Wheat drops like a rock towards the close after the crop report!
Sold 3 May 08, Bought 3 Sep 07 ZW Wheat @ -14 1/4
The average price of the total five contracts was -10.55:
Sold 5 May 08, Bought 5 Sep 07 ZW Wheat @ -10.55 - CLOSED - LOSS 3.063 usd.
I'm unfortunately in a bit of a hurry, and see there's four pages to read, but I only have time to say this important thing: The stoploss here was GROSSLY VIOLATED!!!! Now you can hound me, call me a bad trader, or whatever you want
It worked out in the end, but the September Wheat could have continued to soar and the dog May contract could have stayed without attention for 3 more weeks, at which point one (I) would have been forced to close it at -30, -40 and so on... You get the picture.A brief comment on the energies: The gasoline spreads have been lingering around stoploss for quite a while. The Heating Oil has been down around stoploss, but it's kind of bounced back and is just so illiquid (wide). If it continues down below the 0.500-0.600 area I will kill it - it's been kept since I plan to keep it until Oct 11th.
I'll try to post more in the weekend - the last couple of weeks have been so busy in equities that I have only casually watched the spreads.
EDIT: And yes, I really do hope September Wheat drops like a rock towards the close after the crop report!
hrokling,
Good to see that you are back, I was afraid you had left for good after all those irrelevant exchanges on this thread.
I loaded up in the meantime on interest spreads, like GE Sep 08/Sep 07, GE Dec 07/Sep 07, ZN Dec 07/ZF Dec 07 and ZB Dec 07/ZF Dec 07. They not only show good seasonality but should benefit from the anticipated rate cut.
I also got in at a good time for the CAD Sep 07/Aud Sep 07 - presently up over $2,000 and hope to add more to it after a pull back and I am trying my luck again on HG Dec 07/Sep 07 after I took a very nice profit on the HG May 08/Sep 07.
I re-entered the NG Nov 07/Oct 07 again @.788 but will keep a tight stop, hurricanes and not to mention amaranth are always on my mind.
Best to your trading.
Good to see that you are back, I was afraid you had left for good after all those irrelevant exchanges on this thread.
I loaded up in the meantime on interest spreads, like GE Sep 08/Sep 07, GE Dec 07/Sep 07, ZN Dec 07/ZF Dec 07 and ZB Dec 07/ZF Dec 07. They not only show good seasonality but should benefit from the anticipated rate cut.
I also got in at a good time for the CAD Sep 07/Aud Sep 07 - presently up over $2,000 and hope to add more to it after a pull back and I am trying my luck again on HG Dec 07/Sep 07 after I took a very nice profit on the HG May 08/Sep 07.
I re-entered the NG Nov 07/Oct 07 again @.788 but will keep a tight stop, hurricanes and not to mention amaranth are always on my mind.
Best to your trading.
I've sold half of my position in both of the spreads in gasoline:
Sold 1 Oct 07, Bought 1 Feb 08 RB RBOB Gasoline @ 0.000 (even) - which is -0.0040 from the average entry.
Sold 1 Nov 07, Bought 1 Feb 08 RB RBOB Gasoline @ -0.200 - which is +0.0030 from the average entry.
The total position p&l will be calculated once I'm all out of them, and I'm still carrying 1 contract in each of these spreads. The holding period is drawing to a close, especially for the Oct/Feb spread - and since it's been down so much I think it's fair to take the position down at around breakeven.
With regards to both these spreads and the Heating Oil as well, I think the low margin is too much of a factor in my position sizing so I'll spend some time thinking about that.
Kahai: Good luck with those spreads, be sure to let me know how you're getting on with them!
Sold 1 Oct 07, Bought 1 Feb 08 RB RBOB Gasoline @ 0.000 (even) - which is -0.0040 from the average entry.
Sold 1 Nov 07, Bought 1 Feb 08 RB RBOB Gasoline @ -0.200 - which is +0.0030 from the average entry.
The total position p&l will be calculated once I'm all out of them, and I'm still carrying 1 contract in each of these spreads. The holding period is drawing to a close, especially for the Oct/Feb spread - and since it's been down so much I think it's fair to take the position down at around breakeven.
With regards to both these spreads and the Heating Oil as well, I think the low margin is too much of a factor in my position sizing so I'll spend some time thinking about that.
Kahai: Good luck with those spreads, be sure to let me know how you're getting on with them!
I'm new to spreads. I've been poking around the spread services. Does anyone have an opinion on timeandtiming.com? They don't put out very much commentary, but the data is a bit overwhelming. It sounds like most everybody here is getting by with Moore, Joe Ross, McGovern resources.
Been enjoying and learning heaps on this journal.
Been enjoying and learning heaps on this journal.