Quote from dkm:
Jack
Thank you for the detailed annotations. I am familiar with "BO of bar 4" rule and see the BO occurring on bar 8. I assume this was the reason for using the low of bar 4 as pt 1 and the low of bar 7 as pt 3. In effect, we do not have a pt 2.
My apologies for not going back further into the situation on a more detailed and annotated way. Poit 2 is on the top of bar 2 and I did not annotate it. Point 2 is always there and it is always between point 1 and point 3.
On tuesday and wednesday (FOMC) I will be sure we annotate every inch of both the YM and the ES charts.
Trading is done on the grey channels. 20 to 40 actions are taken a day. The five minute bars on the ES are used for coarse stuff only.
I put up (posted) the emergency exit drill just before this journal went to hell. In that drill the grey trendlines of the channel are used for emergency exits if signals for optimizing trading are missed.
By the time point 3 is reached a second trade after the open is being completed. I do not like to get into the jargon of "trades" since all of the SCT effort is based upon continuation and change. Continuation means hold and continue to make money and change means to carve a reversal in such a way to optimize the locking in of profits and to embark on the next trade.
You bring up a chart that is the coarse and medium, at best, reference to what is going on. You always have to move off this crude level of monitoring when the sweeps nine charts suggest. This, then, it is time to make some money by locking in profits and somultaneously begin the next sequence of making more money as a consequence of changing from one side of the market to another.
I am comfortable with the concept of using 2min YM traverses, gaussians, FTT etc.
Try to review what it is that allows you to miss the point 2 on the YM and the ES and miss the Gaussian that lead to point 2 and what followed afterwards. Also focus on seeing that point 2 is usually very close to the end of the overlap of channels (traverses). When you were comfortably leaving the short traverse after point 1 occurred, it is also possible to consider that point 2 is IN the works and it is a place to take profits.
At the beginning of the day it is often possible to take profits within a bar and sometimes more than once in a bar. There are other times when this happens too.
In other words, you can reverse at 14:07 and 14:09 on this Wednesday coming up. I plan to.
My question is at what point in time did you recognise the high of bar 10 as the FTT?
Around bar 8 and definitely on bar 9.
During bar 11, bar 12, or earlier?
Earlier
My dilemma may be due to the fact that bars 11,12,13,14 and 15 are all inside bars relative to bar 10.
You are short on all of these bars and making money. You are seeing R all the time. On bar 14 the retrace of the B/R ended. See the minimum volume; there is no reversal per se up to this point and you are just sitting there watching you account grow after taking profits at the top of bar 10 and reversing into a short that is making you money.
SCT trading DOES NOT DEAL WITH ENTRIES AND EXITS.
You are in the market all the time and making money all the time.
This Wednesday will be a reporting day from the FOMC. The time is set for it. It will involve three cascades and a reversion to the mean following that. On this chart after a peak on the long, the price retraces and it continues until the volume reaches a minimum volume. You "know" on bar 10 that this is going to happen like you know the sun rises when the alamanac says it is going to rise.
AND, fortunately you have SEVEN indicators all acting in concert to TELL you this as you sit relaxed making money.
You say that bars 11 and 12 form pt 3 but what happened to pt 2?
You went short at the top of bar 10 as a consequence of taking maximum profits. There is another side to this coin of taking maximum profits. You also went short at that very moment. your print shows twice as many contracts as you are holding on the print. It means that you took profits on half of the action and also you entered the next hold with the same number of contracts. This is bar 10.
You are now looking for the new grey channel and how wide it is going to be. You are deciding whether the profits on this hold will be 3 ticks, two points or a leg's worth. One thing you know for sure is the first thing that is coming off is that you are completing the retrace on declining volume bar after bar until you get to a minumum volume at some point. Each new bouncing balls SHOWS you continuing decling volume bar after bar. We are looking at medium level stuff at this point skip looking at any thing fine. It is over kill to look further. You are relaxed FOR 20 MINUTES AND MAKING MONEY.
You see inside bars and I never even glance to take that observation. I know I am in a retrace and lower and lower volume precludes price going anywhere until I get to REVERSAL TIME. Then it will continue short at a faster rate ofvfall during the dominanet travers of the first half of the reversal gaussian.
If the money making is slow I do not bother to treat it even as a high volatility stall (HVS) where I would trade each bar once or twice. I just keep my eyes on the fact that as time passed the price occasionally advances another tick further south and I rack up 250 bucks on 20 contracts each time. Beginners rack up 12.50.
At what point was the first short initiated in the red channel?
color=green]It was initiated at the top of bar 10 it was the only short up to and including bar 15.
David
